The unusual, late-starting 2020-21 college basketball season has been anything but typical, yet there has been no denying the bounty of interesting games and storylines through the first week-plus. That continues this weekend, when the top four teams in the KenPom rankings -- Baylor/Gonzaga and Villanova/Texas -- will square off for a pair of intriguing matchups. ESPN.com's panel of college basketball experts picked their winners for those games, while also discussing what has surprised them around the college hoops landscape thus far.
Jump to score predictions for the weekend's top games
What are your biggest surprises -- one pleasant, one disappointing -- from the first week-plus of the 2020-21 season?
Myron Medcalf, senior college basketball writer: Medcalf: I figured Jalen Suggs would add something to the Gonzaga roster that Mark Few had never had, but his immediate impact and presence has been more prominent than I'd imagined. Per hooplens.com, the Bulldogs have recorded 121 points per 100 possessions with the projected first-round pick on the floor and 102 points per 100 possessions without him.
The most disappointing surprise? Probably the SEC's start thus far. We haven't seen Tennessee yet, but Stanford thumped Alabama in a double-digit win. Florida wrestled with Army until the final minutes. Saint Louis over LSU. Auburn committed 22 turnovers in its eight-point road loss to UCF. (Perhaps LSU's real self-imposed penalty will be its struggles against sub-100 KenPom teams this season?) And then, Kentucky, which has made 39% of its attempts against man-to-man defenses, per Synergy Sports data, has more questions than answers right now.
John Gasaway, college basketball writer: Other than Shaka Smart's hair, the most striking surprise I've seen is the fact that the Texas defense has been not just excellent but outstanding. Big 12 coaches will want to study the Davidson tape, because the Wildcats were at least able to score points against the Longhorns in a losing cause. That's more than Indiana and North Carolina can say.
The biggest disappointment has been the Kentucky offense. John Calipari's team is shooting 19% on its 3s and turning the ball over left and right. Actually, the ugly numbers would be even worse if not for a laugher against Morehead State. The Wildcats are going to have to work to live up to that preseason top-10 ranking.
Jeff Borzello, college basketball insider: Virginia Tech and some of the other teams that pulled upsets were obviously surprises, but give me San Diego State. I know I wasn't the only one with questions about the Aztecs in the post-Malachi Flynn era. Flynn did so much for them last season en route to a 30-2 campaign. With Flynn and two other senior starters gone, I thought San Diego State would still be the Mountain West favorites -- but not really a national factor again. I think I might be wrong. The Aztecs handled a good UCLA team with relative ease in the season opener, then hammered UC Irvine, the defending Big West champs. I'm not expecting Brian Dutcher's team to win their first 26 games again, but they'll be better than I thought.
On the other side, I'm with Gasaway on Kentucky. After the first game, I was on the Wildcats' bandwagon. But they've looked so mediocre offensively the past two games, and while I imagine it will improve as the season progresses, there are some serious issues. They're 3-for-31 in the past two games from beyond the arc. The offense too often results in Brandon Boston Jr. or Terrence Clarke going one-on-one. Olivier Sarr needs to get more touches.
Joe Lunardi, ESPN bracketologist: The top of the Big Ten might be every bit as good as we thought. The league's six ranked teams were a combined 17-1 entering Thursday's games, with the only loss being Illinois against Baylor. This really could be the season the conference breaks its two-decade NCAA championship drought.
The SEC, on the other hand, has faltered early. Kentucky has been unimpressive in a pair of losses. Alabama (to Stanford), LSU (at Saint Louis), South Carolina (to Tulsa) and Mississippi State (Clemson, Liberty) have all lost key "bubble" games. The league's preseason favorite -- Tennessee -- hasn't been able to get on the court.
We'll get to your picks for Gonzaga/Baylor in a sec, but tell us whether you think this game is more significant for the Zags or the Bears. Is this a result that you think will matter to anyone in March or April?
Lunardi: Strictly from the standpoint of the NCAA tournament, the game is more important for Gonzaga. A win would give the Zags a sweep of Kansas, West Virginia and Baylor, with only Iowa (Dec. 19) remaining as a likely top-50 opponent. In other words, Gonzaga can nearly lock up a No. 1 seed with a victory.
Baylor's path to the top line of the bracket is just beginning. The Bears open Big 12 play with Texas on Dec. 13 and will face a gauntlet of at least 10 ranked opponents before the regular season concludes. If the Bears fall to the Zags, they have plenty of opportunities to make up for it.
Borzello: I think it's a bit more significant for Gonzaga. Right now, there's a perception that the Bulldogs are the clear-cut best team in college basketball, maybe even a cut above the rest of the country. Wins over Kansas and West Virginia were good, but doing the same thing to Baylor would lay down a serious marker for the rest of the season. Plus, there will always be the idiots asking in March, "Who has Gonzaga beaten?! They don't play anyone!" and we can just point to this. But outside of that, I don't think this matchup will matter too much to anyone -- unless of course there's a battle to be the overall No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament.
Medcalf: I think it's more significant for Gonzaga, which will have fewer opportunities for Quad I and Quad II wins in conference play. But ... what does a No. 1 seed even mean in a one-city tournament with 68 teams, if that's what we get? Does the No. 1 seed get to choose between Hinkle Fieldhouse or the Bloomington North High School gym? What if we don't have fans?
I understand the top seed gets the best draw. And Baylor will still get a pair of matchups against Kansas, Texas Tech and West Virginia to pad its résumé going forward, so there is a greater sense of urgency for Gonzaga, although hard to imagine anything but a No. 1 seed for Mark Few's team. But I also don't know what Selection Sunday will look like in a pandemic.
Gasaway: Does the game matter more to the Bulldogs or the Bears? Can I say, well, "Yes"? Look at the similarities. Both institutions had, let us say, spotty records of basketball success until both improved dramatically at a similar historical moment two decades ago. (Gonzaga had a head start of a few years.) Both have had the same head coach for the past 15-plus years. Both were ranked No. 1 in the nation for at least four weeks last year. Both would have been No. 1 seeds if there had been a 2020 NCAA tournament. And together they are now, on paper, the two best teams in the country by a mile. We will still be talking about this game when both teams reach the 2021 Final Four.
Give us one more game involving a Top 25 team that you're looking forward to this weekend, and another one you'll be paying attention to that's further under the radar.
Gasaway: I picked Wisconsin to win the Big Ten, and the Badgers will face their first significant test of the young season when they play at Marquette. The Golden Eagles dropped a game at home against Cade Cunningham and Oklahoma State, but Steve Wojciechowski's men will be ready for their in-state rival.
As for under the radar, conference play has begun! Already! Washington State has notched a win at home against Oregon State, and this weekend conference play officially tips off in the Big 12. Oklahoma visits TCU on Sunday, and I still say that one of these years we could see the entire Big 12 make the NCAA tournament. This doesn't look like the year, but, yeah, it will be a sight.
Lunardi: Gotta go with Villanova at Texas (Sunday, ESPN, 1 p.m. ET). This would be the "Game of the Week" in pretty much any scenario not involving No. 1 vs. No. 2. The Longhorns were extremely impressive in their Maui Invitational title run, but we know Jay Wright will have the Wildcats ready to put their Virginia Tech upset behind them.
Elsewhere, my eyes are on SMU's visit to Dayton (Saturday, 2 p.m.). The American and Atlantic 10 remain underrated and poorly categorized as mid-majors, and these are the best teams from each not currently in the projected NCAA field. I'm also looking forward to my first look at the Obi Toppin-less Flyers.
Borzello: Joey Brackets picked the best one -- and like he said, that game is a monster headline game any other weekend. I've been reliably informed that it's also a matchup between No. 3 and No. 4 at KenPom, which is awesome considering Gonzaga and Baylor is No. 1 vs. No. 2.
But my picks for other games to watch are No. 21 Oregon vs. Seton Hall and then Xavier at Cincinnati. Oregon lost to Missouri on Wednesday in a surprising result, and the Ducks will have to bounce back against a struggling Pirates team in Omaha. Life after Myles Powell has started poorly. As for Xavier and Cincinnati, rivalries don't really get more heated than that. Crosstown Shootout baby!
Medcalf: My colleagues took the best ones. But let's go with Kentucky-Georgia Tech on Sunday, which feels like a potential "the sky is falling in Lexington" matchup. Georgia Tech is not a good team, so maybe this is an opportunity for the Wildcats to put together one of those confidence-building efforts in a 25-point win. But we've also seen young teams tumble down the proverbial hill in these situations. And any team that's making 19% of its 3-pointers (yes, I know Georgia Tech is at 27%) can't be trusted.
Under the radar? Again, all the good ones are gone. Thanks, fellas. But I'll take UCF at Michigan on Sunday. UCF is coming off a win over Auburn that included 22 forced turnovers. Michigan had 20 turnovers during its overtime win over Oakland. I just don't know how good these Wolverines are. It could be an interesting under-the-radar matchup.
ESPN.com expert picks for this weekend's top games
(Lines, when available, from Caesars Sportsbook. Predictors do not have access to lines when making score predictions.)