The college basketball season is scheduled to begin Wednesday, with top-5 teams including Villanova, Virginia and Iowa all set to get underway -- though little about 2020-21 campaign will be set in stone. Eight-plus months since the shock of the NCAA tournament cancellation, ESPN.com's experts discussed their concerns about the coronavirus pandemic's ongoing pall over the game of college basketball, amid the season's other major storylines.
Jump to Final Four and Player of the Year predictions
Well, we're finally here, though I'm not sure any of us will believe it until we see a referee actually throwing the ball up. Let's start here: What is your expectation that the 2020-21 season will unfold without a major interruption? Do you have any worries that we will get to the finish line?
Myron Medcalf, senior college basketball writer: I think there is about a 25% chance the season unfolds without a major interruption, assuming the 14-day quarantine after a positive test, per the NCAA guidelines, is followed by the bulk of college basketball. A lot of folks are throwing out the statistics to show that more than 80% of the games in college football, entering the weekend, had been played. That's the wrong metric. Each week, dozens of teams are going into games short-handed. Minnesota was missing nearly two dozen players in a football win over Purdue on Friday. In college basketball, those games would be canceled based on the quarantine rules.
College basketball doesn't have provisions in place to move forward when teams are missing players due to positive tests and contact tracing the way college football does. That's the issue. That's why I expect a variety of major interruptions. And I think they will unfold more frequently in the non-Power 5 leagues. But I'm 100 percent certain we will have an NCAA tournament. Don't know where it will happen. Don't know if we'll have 68 teams. But I guarantee the NCAA will find a way to make it happen and avoid another $375 million loss from a canceled tournament.
Jeff Borzello, college basketball insider: If teams missing 8-10 scheduled games is the threshold, then it's probably 5% we avoid a major interruption. Most coaches I've spoken to expect to play between 16 and 18 games this season, not the scheduled 27 or 28. But much of that stems from the 14-day quarantine guidelines to which most conferences and schools are adhering -- 14 days for a single positive test. If a program sees three positive tests at different times throughout the season and teams are generally playing two games a week, we're talking up to 12 games being canceled. Will those guidelines be changed? Will more conferences test daily like the Big Ten and Pac-12, and therefore avoiding the 14-day quarantine rule? I think that will be the key to a mostly smooth campaign. But that's also not a magic bullet to an interruption-free season.
The NFL has all the money in the world and the league is testing every day, and it still has had issues with postponed games -- and that's with teams playing one game per week. Myron mentioned one of the big differences with college football and college basketball -- the number of players a team can miss and still be competitive -- but there's also the ability to separate by position groups in football. You can't break up a roster in basketball the way you can in football.
John Gasaway, college basketball writer: Is what we're seeing so far in college football major? As my colleague Mr. Medcalf rightly indicates, each positive test in basketball has the potential to land with far greater weight than it does with football. Plus, we've been told for months by public health authorities that this winter might well be a severe challenge in terms of case numbers and tests coming back positive. Now, we're on the doorstep of said winter, and college basketball is positioned to take the brunt of that punishment.
Nevertheless, we will stagger through the regular season, there will be a smaller number of games played than what we're accustomed to seeing, and at the end of it, there will absolutely be a 2021 NCAA tournament. I even expect it will have 68 teams. Then, someday, when we look back on the abrupt end to last season and the curious arc of the one we're about to start, we'll note that 2020 was an especially bumpy ride for fans of a sport that is supposed to peak in March and resume in November.
Joe Lunardi, ESPN bracketologist: Every time I check my phone, there's worry. And I believe there is at least one chance in three that the sport is paused sometime between now and Christmas, with a restart in late January and/or after the rollout of a vaccine. This would push the respective conference seasons back about a month, with Selection Sunday falling in the expected Final Four window. So it might not quite be May Madness, but the NCAA might not crown its champion until the last part of April.
For the second straight season, we are starting off without an easily identifiable top player on the order of Zion Williamson or Trae Young. Who is your top candidate to become college basketball's No. 1 must-watch player in 2020-21?
Gasaway: Even Trae Young and Zion Williamson weren't Trae Young and Zion Williamson in their respective preseasons. Young was left off the preseason All-Big 12 team in 2017-18. Williamson was named second-team All-ACC in the 2018-19 preseason. (That aged well.)
Then again, who's to say a given season's must-watch player has to be a freshman? Maybe 2020-21 will be more of a Markus Howard or Doug McDermott kind of campaign, one in which a savvy veteran fills up box scores and makes us all check each morning what kind of game they had the previous night. I'll go very far out on a limb and say that player could be Detroit's Antoine Davis. The junior gets the steadiest of green lights on his 3s from his coach (and father), Mike Davis, and the Titans should be much improved in 2020-21. Who knows, the younger Davis could even threaten Steph Curry's record (achieved with a shorter line) of 162 made 3-pointers set at Davidson in 2008.
Medcalf: This definitely feels like a Trae Young season, where someone will emerge over the first two to four weeks. Right now I'd go with Oklahoma State's Cade Cunningham. He's a big, strong freshman who can handle the ball and just impact the game in a variety of ways. Plus, he's vying for the top spot in next summer's NBA draft. He's not playing for a powerhouse program, but social media will find him and circulate his highlights. Can I pick a No. 2 candidate? Definitely Jalen Suggs at Gonzaga. I don't think Mark Few has ever had a player like him. He's a star and a projected top-10 pick.
Borzello: We didn't know Young was going to be the biggest story in college basketball, but Zion was must-see entertainment at the high school level, and even the most casual of sports fans already knew him by one name. That's a pretty good sign you're a thing already. I think Cunningham is the best candidate, given that he's the favorite to be the No. 1 pick -- but Oklahoma State is banned from the NCAA tournament and he'll have fewer eyeballs on him at key points in the season.
So let me go with an answer I'll reference whenever I get #EastCoastBias accusations in the future. Arizona State is going to score a ton of points, and Remy Martin might lead the Sun Devils in that category. Also, if you decide to watch him every game, you'll also have a chance to see freshman Joshua Christopher -- maybe the best pure scorer entering college basketball. The Sun Devils are going to be fun to watch.
Lunardi: Did we already forget about Luka Garza? He was our unanimous Big Ten Player of the Year choice last week, and I have a feeling he's going to fare pretty well in the "Player of the Year" section below. The guy makes almost 60% of his shots (59.7 career field-goal percentage) and over 35% of his 3s (35.8 last season). His Iowa team should roll into the Sweet 16 for the first time this century and is one of several high-end contenders in a loaded Big Ten. In other words, it's going to be "must-see TV" every night in Iowa City.
If you had to identify one 'mystery team,' a group whose outcomes range from 'Final Four' to 'non-NCAA tournament disaster,' which would it be?
Borzello: There's a lot of good candidates here. I think a couple of not-so-obvious ones are North Carolina and West Virginia. The Tar Heels finished last in the ACC last season, and a lot of the key players from last season's team are going to be key pieces on this season's team. And I do have questions about this group. I love its post quartet and I really like Caleb Love at point guard. But they lack wing scoring, and a lineup of one point guard and four post players isn't viable.
As for West Virginia, the Mountaineers are going to be elite defensively and on the glass -- but their ceiling really depends on how consistent they can be offensively. They went through long stretches last season in which they couldn't score because they couldn't shoot. Miles McBride and Jalen Bridges could be the key to fixing those issues. I tend to think the Tar Heels and Mountaineers are top-15-20 teams, but I can also see it going awry.
Lunardi: I'll go with Memphis, perhaps because we just saw this movie a year ago. To avoid a bad sequel, the Tigers need a veteran returnee (D.J. Jeffries?) and a star newcomer (Moussa Cisse) to be more consistent and available than their predecessors. I'm optimistic Virginia Tech transfer Landers Nolley II will provide additional stability but will remain unconvinced until we see coach Penny Hardaway bring it all together on the court. For me, Memphis could be a 4- or 5-seed in either tournament: NCAA or NIT.
Gasaway: Texas is the easy pick here, right? After all, the Longhorns have been consistently quizzical for a while now. Shaka Smart has everyone back from last season, and there's a chance that, at 19-12 and 9-9 in Big 12 play heading into a conference tournament that never happened, UT could have played its way into the NCAA tournament.
Ordinarily when you return everyone from that caliber of team, expectations are really high. And, in fact, laptops expect very big things from the Horns. But will Matt Coleman III, Courtney Ramey and their mates really be able to score mere months after clocking in as the single worst offense (per possession) in Big 12 play? Truly, it's a mystery worthy of a group of meddling kids, their dog, and a van. We'll see what happens when Texas is unmasked.
Medcalf: I'll pick UCLA here. Mick Cronin, reigning Pac-12 Coach of the Year, actually has an experienced nucleus with Chris Smith, Cody Riley, Tyger Campbell and Jalen Hill back for the Bruins. That crew finished 11-3 in the final 14 games of the 2019-20 season.
But the Bruins were 8-9 through 17 games. They were unreliable from the perimeter (32.2% from the 3-point line) and they committed turnovers on nearly one-fifth of their possessions. That final rally suggests Cronin's team could be dangerous in his second season if it uses that momentum to make a run at the Pac-12 title and make noise in March. But the Bruins must also correct the weaknesses that sent them into that hole early in the season to avoid another disastrous start.
Give us one out-of-the-box storyline -- something you're fascinated by that no one else seems to be talking about -- heading into 2020-21.
Borzello: Will any players who played college basketball last season develop into an elite NBA draft prospect? Right now, the highest-ranked returning player in ESPN's 2021 mock draft is UConn's James Bouknight -- and he's slotted in at No. 17. Bouknight has a world of potential, but he started only 16 games for a team that wouldn't have made the NCAA tournament, so will he be consistent and take the next step? Right behind him is Louisville's David Johnson at No. 19. And Johnson averaged 6.3 points in 16.0 minutes last season, so he's not quite a can't-miss prospect just yet.
We tend to value the unknown potential over the known production when it comes to evaluating prospects, so that could be the reason for the lack of returning players. But I'm curious to see whether someone comes out of nowhere and breaks out into a lottery pick. Last year, Obi Toppin was ranked No. 24 in ESPN's mock draft entering the season, Jalen Smith was No. 33, Kira Lewis was No. 34 and Devin Vassell was nowhere to be found. Who will follow in their paths?
Gasaway: I want to see whether the Big Ten breaks the record of 11 set by the Big East in 2011 and puts 12 -- count 'em, 12 -- teams into the NCAA tournament. Now, for this storyline to exist, two things will have to happen. First, there will have to be a full-size NCAA tournament in 2021, and that alone is no sure thing. Second, midtier Big Ten teams like, say, Penn State and Maryland will have to greatly exceed the expectations being set forth for them in the preseason.
Make no mistake, putting 12 of your 14 teams into the NCAA bracket is a heavy lift. Still, there was a fleeting moment last season, before we knew there wouldn't be a tournament, when it looked as if the Big Ten might actually do it. Then Minnesota, for one, faltered down the stretch and the dream died. Maybe 2021 will be the year.
Medcalf: I just want to see what the game's big men will look like this season. More forwards and centers in the pros are doing everything they can to avoid that label in the NBA. And when you see Anthony Davis and Nikola Jokic making 3-pointers in the playoffs, you know that will have an impact on young bigs in college basketball. Luke Garza wants to do more from the perimeter this season. I'm sure others have the same thought. This is a season with some important big men on the national scene. Based on where the game is headed, however, I doubt many of them will actually cling to that label.
Lunardi: I've got a few. Can anyone surpass Villanova in the Big East? Yes: Creighton. Will Rutgers finish its long overdue quest to return to the NCAA tournament? Yes, but it won't be easy. Are any non-power conference members as good as Dayton and San Diego State last season? No, although Richmond, Saint Louis, BYU and Northern Iowa have second-weekend potential. Finally, is this the season Gonzaga breaks through with a national championship? For me, the nation's two best teams are the Zags and Baylor. And a best-of-seven between the two would go the distance. Who prevails? Check back in April sometime.
2021 Final Four predictions
Medcalf: Gonzaga, Villanova, Iowa, Baylor
Borzello: Baylor, Villanova, Gonzaga, Illinois
Gasaway: Baylor, Duke, Villanova, Wisconsin
Lunardi: Baylor, Gonzaga, Kentucky, Creighton
College basketball 2020-21 superlatives
Player of the Year
Medcalf: Luka Garza, Iowa
Borzello: Luka Garza, Iowa
Gasaway: Luka Garza, Iowa
Lunardi: Luka Garza, Iowa
Newcomer of the Year
Medcalf: Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State
Borzello: Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State
Gasaway: Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State
Lunardi: Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State