Nothing has epitomized the "recruiting never stops" adage more than the past several months in the 2021 class.
While most of the focus in the college basketball world has been on the questions and concerns over the upcoming 2020-21 season, nothing has slowed down on the recruiting trail.
Entering the early signing period Wednesday, 79 players in the ESPN 100 have already committed -- and at this time last year, exactly 78 of the ESPN 100 were committed.
Four storylines to watch
1. Is anyone committing? Last year, there were several ESPN 100 prospects expected to commit around the early signing period, including three five-star prospects. There won't be the same type of pop this year. As of now, there's an expectation that perhaps only three ESPN 100 prospects will decide, with zero five-star prospects among them. We'll dive in deeper a little later in the column.
2. How solid is Michigan at No. 1? Juwan Howard and the Wolverines leapfrogged Oregon for the No. 1 recruiting class in the country on Monday when top-10 senior Moussa Diabate announced his commitment to Michigan. The Wolverines vaulted to No. 2 once top-10 prospect Caleb Houstan committed in late October, and Diabate's pledge put them over the top. It now gives Howard two top-10 commitments and four ESPN 100 commitments in his six-man group. Oregon drops to No. 2, with three ESPN 100 prospects in the fold, led by top-10 prospect Nate Bittle leading the way. Will it be enough for Michigan to stay on top? The Wolverines have a strong case, and they're also in the mix for several other top-50 prospects -- but there's at least one other team to keep an eye on ...
3. What about Duke and Kentucky? Duke and Kentucky are always solid bets to finish right around the top two, as the Wildcats have finished in the top two every season but one under John Calipari (when they were No. 3 in 2019), while Duke has finished No. 2 the past two years after finishing No. 1 in four of the previous five. Duke could have the inside track to No. 1 if it can land its top two remaining targets: Patrick Baldwin Jr. and Trevor Keels. The Blue Devils already have commitments from two top-10 prospects in Paolo Banchero and A.J. Griffin, so adding a third top-10 prospect and fourth five-star prospect would put them in good position. Kentucky leapt into the top 10 of the class rankings, landing top-50 prospects Daimion Collins and Bryce Hopkins to go with Nolan Hickman. The Wildcats also landed five-star junior Skyy Clark, a candidate to reclassify into 2021. They are also after several five-star seniors, and adding a couple of those would get them in the No. 1 mix.
4. Anything else? While there might not be much action in terms of commitments, there's a great chance to watch some of the top prospects on Thursday. The Geico ESPN High School Basketball Showcase tripleheader takes place, featuring five top-five prospects in the 2021, 2022 and 2023 classes. It starts with Lake Norman Christian (North Carolina) taking on famed Oak Hill Academy (Virginia), and a battle between Mikey Williams (No. 3 in 2023) and M.J. Rice (No. 10 in 2022). Up next is the highlight of the night, with No. 1 senior Chet Holmgren and Team Sizzle (Minnesota) going up against No. 1 junior Emoni Bates and Ypsi Prep (Michigan). To cap off the night is a West Coast battle between top-five senior Jaden Hardy and Air Nado (Nevada) against No. 3 junior Amari Bailey and CBC (California).
Who's committing?
Right now, we have likely commitments coming from three players: Trey Alexander (No. 40), who is expected to commit on Tuesday; Roosevelt Wheeler (No. 82), who is expected to announce a decision next week; and TyTy Washington (No. 83), who will announce this weekend.
Breakdowns of their recruitments can be found below.
Who's waiting?
Pretty much everyone else. Top-10 prospects Chet Holmgren (No. 1), Jaden Hardy (No. 4) and Michael Foster (No. 6) don't seem all that close to a commitment. The situation of Aminu Mohammed (No. 11) is still pretty fluid, with new schools attempting to enter the mix. Trevor Keels (No. 15), Efton Reid (No. 18), Hunter Sallis (No. 19) and Charles Bediako (No. 26) are theoretically closer to a commitment than the aforementioned four players, but decisions aren't expected. Ditto for Arthur Kaluma (No. 39), Mac Etienne (No. 64) and the rest of the ESPN 100.
Perhaps a wild card could be Patrick Baldwin Jr., the No. 2 prospect in 2021. This appears to be a battle between Milwaukee, where Baldwin's father is the head coach, and Duke. While the expectation is that he will wait to make a decision, he is far enough along in the recruiting process to decide if he wants to.
Another player to keep an eye on would be recent Florida State decommit Bryce McGowens (No. 33). He ramped up the recruiting process pretty quickly after reopening his recruitment, but this might be too soon for a decision.
Hot board
SG Trey Alexander
6-4, 175 pounds
Heritage Hall High School (Oklahoma)
ESPN 100 ranking: 40
In the mix: Arkansas, Auburn, Kansas
This one appears to be a battle between SEC programs Auburn and Arkansas, since in-state program Oklahoma fell out of the mix over the past few months. Arkansas might have been in the driver's seat a couple weeks ago, but Auburn seems to have momentum entering the final days of Alexander's recruitment. The Tigers have remained in consistent contact with Alexander, and five-star commit Jabari Smith was undoubtedly in his ear at the recent Pangos camp.
Prediction: Auburn
Confidence level: 70%
C Roosevelt Wheeler
6-9, 220 pounds
John Marshall High School (Virginia)
ESPN 100 ranking: 82
In the mix: Hampton, Louisville, LSU, NC State, VCU
Wheeler recently cut his list to five, but the perception is that it's a two-horse race between ACC programs Louisville and NC State. An injury will keep him out of the upcoming season, but he's expected to recover by next fall. Louisville has received most of the buzz for Wheeler for the past several weeks, and I think the Cardinals will be happy when Wheeler announces his decision next week. They need a big man in the 2021 class, and Wheeler fits the mold.
Prediction: Louisville
Confidence level: 80%
PG TyTy Washington
6-3, 180 pounds
AZ Compass Prep (Arizona)
ESPN 100 ranking: 83
In the mix: Arizona State, Creighton, Illinois, others
Washington recently went to Illinois for an unofficial visit to the Fighting Illini's campus, and he set a decision date shortly thereafter. As a result, the prevailing school of thought is that Washington will end up at Illinois -- but he and his family also took an unofficial campus visit to Creighton earlier this fall. Other schools have remained involved, but it seems that Creighton and Illinois are the two favorites entering the stretch. With Illinois getting the final campus visit, I lean toward Brad Underwood getting a potential Ayo Dosunmu replacement for next season.
Prediction: Illinois
Confidence level: 60%