The high school Class of 2021 arguably will be the most under-recruited college basketball class in recent memory. No April evaluation period, no June evaluation period, no July evaluation period -- and who knows what the high school season will look like? There's also the question of campus visits and when players will be able to travel and see potential schools.
All that adds up to plenty of uncertainty regarding the recruitment of 2021 prospects, while the added option of the G League provides another wrinkle when attempting to handicap some of these battles.
It's still very early for most of these recruitments, so it's going to be hard to make an educated decision on where each of these players will end up. But tiers and top groups are beginning to develop.
1. Chet Holmgren, 7-0, 175 pounds, C
Holmgren is unique. One of the most special players we've seen in the high school game in a few years, given his size, frame and skill set -- and his recruitment isn't like that of other top-ranked prospects, either. Holmgren has taken official visits to Ohio State and Gonzaga, as well as unofficial trips to Minnesota, Maryland and Georgetown. He told ESPN that Minnesota, Gonzaga, Michigan, Georgetown, Michigan, North Carolina and Ohio State are the main schools staying in contact. He plans to cut his list in the next couple of weeks.
The Minnesota native is close friends with and a former AAU teammate of elite 2020 guard Jalen Suggs, who is going to suit up for Gonzaga next season. The Bulldogs have been a mainstay in Holmgren's recruitment and are perceived to be one of the favorites.
"That's my guy, and I'm going to be closely tuned in to see his successes -- especially because I'll miss playing with him," Holmgren said.
Despite the looming list cut, Holmgren's decision isn't coming any time soon. He wants to take all five official visits and will likely take his time going through the process.
Gonzaga, Ohio State and Minnesota are probably the top tier right now.
2. Patrick Baldwin Jr., 6-9, 200 pounds, PF
Baldwin released his list of 10 schools on May 9, with Wisconsin, Duke, Milwaukee, Virginia, North Carolina, Northwestern, Georgetown, Michigan, UCLA and Kentucky remaining in the mix. This has long been considered a blue-blood vs. Milwaukee battle. Why Milwaukee? Baldwin's father, Pat, is the coach of the Panthers and has made Milwaukee a legitimate candidate for his top-5 son. Northwestern is another option, as both of Baldwin's parents played there.
Duke, which landed Baldwin AAU teammate Jalen Johnson in the 2020 class, leads the way if Baldwin decides not to play for his father. Kentucky also is expected to be a major factor. He has visited Duke, Milwaukee, Northwestern and North Carolina.
Duke vs. Milwaukee might be the best way to handicap this one right now.
3. Paolo Banchero, 6-8, 230 pounds, PF
Banchero has been a sought-after recruit for most of his high school career, and he has actually progressed more in his recruitment than most other elite prospects. He visited Kentucky, Duke and Tennessee last October, then went to Gonzaga in January. The Seattle native also has been to Washington. Those five schools made up the majority of Banchero's final six, which he revealed in late April. The sixth school on that list was Arizona, which didn't jump in with both feet until a couple of months ago, but the Wildcats' hiring of Jason Terry as their assistant coach puts them squarely in the mix.
Banchero's recruitment has seen plenty of twists and turns, with nearly every school on his list looking like the perceived favorite at one point or another. Another wrinkle is Banchero's relationship with five-star guard Kennedy Chandler; the two have discussed playing together in college. The three schools in common for Banchero and Chandler are Tennessee, Kentucky and Duke.
It's hard to find a true favorite, but Kentucky is in a strong position, while Gonzaga and Tennessee likely make up the next tier. I wouldn't count out any of the six, though.
4. Jaden Hardy, 6-5, 185 pounds, SG
Hardy is the best guard in the 2021 class and has established himself as one of the best scorers in high school basketball over the past few years. He told ESPN that Arizona, Arizona State, UCLA, Kentucky, Kansas, Michigan, Memphis, Georgia, Illinois and Georgetown remain in consistent contact with him, and his brother, Amauri, recently committed to Oregon as a graduate transfer.
Hardy has been on unofficial visits to Arizona, Arizona State and UCLA, and he told ESPN he wants to take visits to Kentucky and Michigan when he's allowed. Hardy plays his high school ball in Las Vegas, but his family originally is from Detroit, and the Wolverines jumped into the mix a couple of months after Juwan Howard took over in Ann Arbor.
Kentucky has been considered the leader for most of Hardy's recruitment.
5. Jabari Smith, 6-8, 190 pounds, PF
It has been difficult to get a read on Smith's recruitment, as he doesn't talk much about school lists and wasn't a candidate to reclassify, unlike most of his top-10 brethren. That said, the expectation from those involved in Smith's recruitment is that he will stay close to home. The Georgia native's list is made up mostly of SEC programs, and he has visited Tennessee, Georgia and Auburn.
Smith told ESPN that Georgia, Tennessee, Georgia Tech, Auburn, LSU and Ole Miss remain in heavy contact, while North Carolina recently began showing strong interest.
The three schools he visited are considered the favorites, although LSU is a factor given Smith's father played for the Tigers before playing in the NBA for a few seasons before heading overseas.
6. Michael Foster, 6-9, 240 pounds, PF
Another player who flirted with the idea of reclassifying, Foster told ESPN he's sticking in the 2021 class. It's mostly because of his age; Foster just turned 17 last week and is young for his grade. He would be even younger for his grade if he had enrolled in college a year early.
"I don't want to be in school two years [solely] due to my age," Foster said. "Now if I'm in school and the NBA says I'm not ready, I'll go back to school, but not just because I'm too young."
Foster has taken an official visit to Georgia and unofficial visits to Baylor and Illinois. He wants to go back to Georgia because he enjoyed seeing a football game in Athens last year but also wants to take trips to Florida State, Arkansas, Kansas and Michigan so he can see the schools that have made him a priority.
Right now, Georgia is garnering the most buzz.
7. Moussa Diabate, 6-10, 215 pounds, PF
Stop me if you've heard this before: Diabate was another candidate to reclassify into the 2020 class, but he's not planning to do that at this point. Diabate told ESPN that Alabama, Auburn, Michigan, Florida and Arizona are the five schools that have stayed in constant contact over the past few months. Of that group, Diabate has been to only Auburn.
There has been hardly any buzz regarding Diabate in terms of favorites, so it's impossible to pick a favorite or even a top tier at this point. Those five schools he mentioned to ESPN are a good starting point, though.
8. Nate Bittle, 6-11, 173 pounds, C
Another high-level big toward the top of the 2021 rankings, Bittle has taken concrete steps in his recruitment over the past year. The Oregon native has been a prime candidate to stay home for college, with the Ducks having been considered a favorite for a couple of years. That said, Bittle also took trips to Arizona and UCLA last fall and went to Gonzaga in January.
For now, let's give Oregon the best chance for Bittle, with UCLA and Arizona right behind. Gonzaga will likely wait and see what happens with Holmgren and Banchero.
9. A.J. Griffin, 6-6, 195 pounds, SF
The only committed player in the 2021 top-10, Griffin announced his pledge to Duke in early November, choosing the Blue Devils over Villanova, Kentucky and others. Griffin is expected to be the start to another big-time recruiting class for Mike Krzyzewski's program, with Baldwin, Banchero, Max Christie, Kennedy Chandler and others atop Duke's hit list.
10. Aminu Mohammed, 6-5, 190 pounds, SG
Mohammed's guardian, Shawn Harmon, told ESPN that Georgia, Indiana, Louisville and Wake Forest have been the most consistent schools in terms of staying in contact. Harmon also mentioned Maryland -- where Mohammed took an official visit last fall -- SMU, Kansas State, Pittsburgh and Georgetown as schools that have been keeping in touch. Mohammed has taken unofficial visits to Kansas State, Louisville and Indiana.
"For us it's a marathon, not a sprint, so we're just trying to build a relationship with all the schools that have made offers," Harmon said. "We think it's a great list of schools and some really good coaching staffs."
Harmon said there are no plans to reclassify into 2020, despite rumors suggesting it's a possibility. There's no public top group for Mohammed, but Indiana has been involved a long time and continues to impress with its pitches.