In an ordinary time, this ranking of next season's top 25 players would be posted while confetti is still raining down on the winning team in the national championship game. This is no ordinary time, but we can still look ahead with hope.
Of course, even during regular times, looking ahead is tricky in early April. The players in question are still deciding what they're going to do next season.
So, let's keep this simple and make one big assumption. Based on projected draft order as determined by ESPN.com and on the comments and signals coming from players and coaches, I've come up with a list of 35 or so freshmen, sophomores and juniors I expect to leave early or who have declared for the NBA draft and hired an agent. We'll just assume we won't be seeing this group of players at the college level again.
Those players are: Precious Achiuwa, Cole Anthony, Saddiq Bey, Tyler Bey, Jared Butler, Vernon Carey Jr., Devon Dotson, Anthony Edwards, Josh Green, Ashton Hagans, Tyrese Haliburton, Elijah Hughes, Mason Jones, Tre Jones, Kira Lews Jr., Isaiah Livers, Nico Mannion, Tyrese Maxey, Jaden McDaniels, Aaron Nesmith, Zeke Nnaji, Jordan Nwora, Onyeka Okongwu, Isaac Okoro, Daniel Oturu, Immanuel Quickley, Jahmi'us Ramsey, Jalen Smith, Cassius Stanley, Isaiah Stewart, Xavier Tillman Sr., Obi Toppin, Devin Vassell, Kaleb Wesson, Patrick Williams and Robert Woodard II. None of the above are included in the rankings below.
It's unlikely every single one of those guys will go pro, and we also might see some players listed below leaving the college ranks to take a shot at the next level.
In the meantime, here's your way-too-early look at the top 25 players of 2020-21.
When was the last time a national player of the year-type standout returned to school and played the next season? It has been a while. Tyler Hansbrough won the Wooden and Naismith awards in 2008, came back in 2008-09 and led North Carolina to a national title -- but had to watch Oklahoma's Blake Griffin take top individual honors that season.
Which brings us to Garza, who lost out on the Naismith award to Obi Toppin last week. Perhaps the Iowa star will even that score when the Wooden honors are announced. In any event, 6-foot-11 Garza combined volume with efficiency and was the only major-conference player in the nation to average at least eight made 2-pointers per contest. While it was common to knock his defense (and true, he's not exactly fleet afoot on D), Garza's individual numbers for blocks and defensive boards were commendable enough within a Hawkeyes defense that played (more or less by necessity) a good deal of zone.
2. Malachi Flynn, San Diego State Aztecs
Who knows, Flynn might not play in college next season. He's currently projected as the No. 42 prospect in the 2020 NBA draft by ESPN.com. If he does return for his senior season, however, the Aztecs will be getting one of the best all-around performers in college basketball. Flynn is a scoring point guard who hits shots from both sides of the arc and ranked in the top 150 nationally for steal percentage. His 36-point outing on 13-of-20 shooting in SDSU's 83-76 win at Nevada ranked as one of the top individual games of the season.
3. Filip Petrusev, Gonzaga Bulldogs
One indication of just how mighty the Gonzaga program has become is that a dominant player like Petrusev did not start a single game in 2018-19 as a freshman. Conversely, as a sophomore, the 6-11 native of Belgrade, Serbia, seamlessly took on the role of featured scorer for a team that would have earned a No. 1 seed had there been an NCAA tournament. Petrusev does the entirety of his scoring in the paint, which is where he drew a rather ridiculous 8.5 fouls per 40 minutes in West Coast Conference play. He is a 2-point machine.
4. Marcus Garrett, Kansas Jayhawks
Your national defensive player of the year has a knack for blowing up whatever play the opposing offense thinks it's about to execute. Indeed, you can make a case that Garrett is one of the best collegiate defensive players under 6-6 since Marcus Smart. Note additionally that the version of Garrett that showed up to drain six 3-pointers and score 24 points against Oklahoma in February is arguably the best player in the country. In larger sample sizes, however, the junior is a career 58% shooter at the line who connects 28% of the time from beyond the arc.
5. Nick Richards, Kentucky Wildcats
If Richards really does return for his senior season, he'll become the first honest-to-goodness four-year player at Kentucky since either Derek Willis (who barely glimpsed the floor in his first two seasons at UK) or, depending on your definitions, Alex Poythress. Perhaps a prospect who's already 22 will decide it's high time to start playing professionally somewhere. If not, the 6-11 Richards will be one of the best big men in the college game next season, one who's an efficient scorer in the paint and who rather quietly drained 76% of his free throws in SEC play.
6. Jalen Green, Undecided
The No. 1 player in the 2020 ESPN 100, Green has yet to decide where he'll play basketball next season. The 6-6 scoring guard from Fresno, California, made campus visits to Kentucky, Oregon, Auburn and Memphis and said he expects to make his college decision sometime "around" April 15. A potential No. 1 pick in the 2021 NBA draft, Green was one of four players to average double figures for the USA's gold medal-winning team at the FIBA U19 World Cup last summer.
7. Reggie Perry, Mississippi State Bulldogs
For reasons that aren't entirely clear, Perry continues to be somewhat underrated at the national level. Last season, the 6-10 sophomore stepped into the void left by the departures of Quinndary Weatherspoon and Lamar Peters and flourished as a high-usage scorer. Perry's numbers compare favorably with those of the legions of Big Ten big men who, rightly, earned reams of publicity in 2019-20, and Perry's career 75% shooting at the line has extracted a toll from more than one opponent over the past two seasons. He's a potential 2021 SEC Player of the Year.
8. Ayo Dosunmu, Illinois Fighting Illini
During his sophomore season, Dosunmu made a name for himself as one of the sport's foremost "closers." Every time you looked up, it seemed, Brad Underwood's top scorer was draining still another game-winning shot in the closing seconds. True enough, and Dosunmu was praiseworthy in the other 39 minutes of games as well. The 6-5 scoring guard increased his efficiency on offense significantly in his second season despite shooting just 29% on his 3s. That perimeter success rate could take a turn for the better next season, either in Champaign or professionally, based on his volume of attempts and normalcy at the line (73% for his career).
9. Marcus Zegarowski, Creighton Bluejays
Greg McDermott is fortunate to have two strong candidates for these rankings in the form of Zegarowski and Ty-Shon Alexander. Both players shoot between 40% and 42% on their 3s, and they served as co-featured scorers for a Creighton offense that stood head-and-shoulders above that of any other team's in Big East play. We'll give Zegarowski the nod here thanks to superior numbers for 2-point accuracy and assists. With just one senior in the rotation last season (Kelvin Jones), the Bluejays are primed to rack up points once again when they next take the floor.
10. Oscar Tshiebwe, West Virginia Mountaineers
Tshiebwe's first season with the Mountaineers had "outrageous potential" written all over it. The 6-9 freshman ranked No. 1 in the nation in offensive rebound percentage, and, incredibly, that was with 6-10 Derek Culver occasionally playing alongside him and competing for those same second chances. Tshiebwe was also unusually competent (71%) at the line for a shot-blocking freshman. If breakout sophomores are still a thing in this strange new sports era, Tshiebwe will be at the top of that list for 2021.
11. Evan Mobley, USC Trojans
Say this for Andy Enfield: He's bringing blue-chip talent to the Galen Center. No sooner does Onyeka Okongwu go one-and-done than the Trojans put Wootten National Player of the Year Mobley on the floor. The 7-foot freshman is reputed to be a "massive" talent and will be in the same 2020-21 Southern Cal team photo as his brother, Isaiah Mobley, and his father, Trojans assistant coach Eric Mobley. Last summer, the youngest Mobley was already seeing spot duty on the USA's gold medal-winning team at the FIBA U19 World Cup alongside the likes of Jalen Green and Reggie Perry.
12. Jay Huff, Virginia Cavaliers
Huff became the first major-conference player in three years to record 10 blocks in a game when he swatted away that many shots against Duke in the Cavaliers' 52-50 win over the Blue Devils in Charlottesville. The 7-1 junior has learned his defensive lessons well (that does tend to happen in Tony Bennett's vicinity), and, despite his size, Huff defends ball screens on the perimeter adroitly in addition to blockading the rim. Naturally, his counting stats will never be eye-popping within a share-the-wealth offense that averages 60 possessions per 40 minutes, but Huff is a career 68% shooter on his 2s.
13. Keyontae Johnson, Florida Gators
At the risk of oversimplifying things, this guy's shots just go in the basket. An excellent defensive rebounder who's listed at 6-5, Johnson will likely carry more of the load on offense going forward for UF in the wake of Kerry Blackshear's departure. The sophomore finished the abbreviated season with something of a flourish, recording three double-doubles down the campaign's homestretch.
14. Collin Gillespie, Villanova Wildcats
The grand old man of the Villanova program, Gillespie is the only remaining Wildcat who saw non-token playing time in the 2018 national title game. Now the 6-3 senior-to-be is positioned to be a featured scorer on what's likely to be one of the best teams in the country in 2020-21. Gillespie is an accomplished distributor and capable perimeter threat who nevertheless ended the season mired in a 6-of-28 slump from beyond the arc. Expect the senior to bounce back with a vengeance on his 3-point accuracy in 2021.
15. Jalen Crutcher, Dayton Flyers
Whether it was some magical sequence of shooting drills that Crutcher went through last season or, perhaps, some potion he drank, the resulting transformation was unmistakable. Sure, the jump in 3-point accuracy (all the way up to 42% in a year when the line was moved back) could be chalked up in part to open looks resulting from a certain national player of the year-level teammate (Obi Toppin). But the 16-percentage-point improvement in shooting at the line? Crutcher's on a roll, and, whether the clock's running or stopped, when he launches the ball, the safe bet now is that it's going in the basket.
16. Oscar da Silva, Stanford Cardinal
Few players nationally recorded a larger increase in workload last season than da Silva, who went from a supporting player behind KZ Okpala as a sophomore to the main cog (or co-main cog along with Tyrell Terry) in the Cardinal offense as a junior. The 6-9 Munich native connected on 61% of his 2s last season and rose to a potentially season-changing occasion with his 27-15 double-double in Stanford's 70-60 win at home over Oregon at the beginning of February. As it happens, da Silva plays for a (very) low shot-volume offense in Palo Alto, otherwise his offensive rebound percentage would, perhaps, be significantly higher.
17. Cade Cunningham, Oklahoma State Cowboys
Mike Boynton scored a major recruiting coup when he beat out the likes of Kentucky, North Carolina and Florida to sign Cunningham, a 6-7 point guard from Arlington, Texas. Perhaps the fact that Cade's brother, Cannen, was hired as an OSU assistant last summer was a factor in the decision, though Cade has maintained his family "encouraged me to explore my options." Cunningham gave Tyrese Haliburton a run for his money for the No. 1 position on the assists leaderboard when the two teamed up on Team USA at the FIBA U19 World Cup last summer.
18. Micah Potter, Wisconsin Badgers
Potter logged far fewer minutes last season than any other returning player on this list. Well, so be it. What we did see from him was pretty darn impressive. Required to sit out the first 10 games of the season after transferring in from Ohio State, the 6-10 junior made up for lost time by shooting like a taller Big Ten version of Buddy Hield. Potter put up percentages of 86, 57 and 45 at the line, on 2s and from beyond the arc, respectively, and he did so while dominating the defensive glass and altering a fair number of shots. If he cracks the starting lineup as a senior, we might be in for more of all of the above.
19. Remy Martin, Arizona State Sun Devils
Martin could be due for an improvement in 3-point accuracy next season as a senior or, who knows, maybe he's one of those aberrant cases where the shooting at the line (77% last season) just remains stubbornly out of whack with the success rate from beyond the arc (33% for his career). In either case, the 6-foot scoring point guard is now converting half his 2s and drawing better than five fouls per 40 minutes as a high-usage first option on offense. His 30-point effort to go along with four steals in a losing cause at UCLA late in the season gave some indication of what might be in store in 2021.
20. Trayce Jackson-Davis, Indiana Hoosiers
Playing in what was statistically the strongest conference in the nation, Jackson-Davis had the kind of freshman season that typically presages very big things to come. You name it, Archie Miller's big man made it happen. Rim defense, drawing fouls, taking care of the ball, 2-pointers in bulk, rebounds at both ends of the floor -- the 6-9 star did it all. Jackson-Davis personally rescued the Hoosiers from one of the few "bad" losses the Big Ten schedule had to offer in 2020 when his 25-15 double-double carried IU to an overtime win at home against Nebraska in December.
21. Fatts Russell, Rhode Island Rams
At 5-10, Russell is an outstanding defender who ranked in the top 15 nationally for steal percentage in 2020. He led URI in multiple categories last season, up to and including points, assists, free throw attempts, minutes and, yes, steals. He has submitted his name for the draft, but, if he returns, he'll be on the short list of contenders to follow Obi Toppin for Atlantic 10 Player of the Year honors. Note additionally that any player of Russell's stature who can record six blocks over the course of a season is one estimable competitor.
22. Garrison Brooks, North Carolina Tar Heels
Lost in the rubble of UNC's worst season in a decade was the fact that Brooks played exceedingly well. His 30-point outburst in the Tar Heels' 85-79 win at home over NC State late in the season offered a glimpse of what he can do in an era when the likes of Luke Maye and Cameron Johnson are no longer around to take those same shots. Brooks promptly followed that up with a 26-14 double-double in North Carolina's 92-79 win at Syracuse. He could be poised for a senior season that will not be overlooked.
23. Caleb Mills, Houston Cougars
No player on this list, not even Luka Garza himself, accounted for a larger share of his team's shot attempts during his minutes last season than Mills did for Houston. That, combined with the fact that the player in question was a freshman, perhaps explains a rather unsightly success rate (39.7%) inside the arc for the 6-3 scoring guard. Nevertheless, there could be good things in Mills' future. His ability to hit perimeter shots and draw fouls even as an ultra-high-usage freshman in one of Division I's better conferences suggests that a big sophomore year might be in the offing.
24. Jalen Harris, Nevada Wolf Pack
Having sat out a season after transferring in from Louisiana Tech, Harris played like a man with something to prove in Reno. During one memorable stretch spanning late January and early February, the 6-5 junior poured in 186 points over the course of just six outings. Harris was highly productive in that run even when his outside shooting touch deserted him. Despite going 0-for-8 from beyond the arc against UNLV, he recorded a 29-18 double-double to lead the Wolf Pack to an 82-79 victory in overtime.
25. Carlik Jones, Louisville Cardinals
In three seasons as Radford's starting point guard, Jones amassed better than 1,500 points and 480 assists. The reigning 2020 Big South Player of the Year announced his transfer to Louisville, and the 6-1 senior will be eligible immediately.