Our college basketball experts have seen the best high school hoops prospects over the past couple of decades. They've seen players go from highly touted recruits to NBA MVPs.
And yet for every recruit they have scouted and been right about over the years, there are a few they have missed on as well.
Paul Biancardi, Adam Finkelstein, Jeff Borzello and Myron Medcalf reflect on the best prospects they have ever seen, those they undervalued, those they overrated and the best high school freshmen they have seen.
The best recruits we've ever seen
Paul Biancardi: LeBron James
I was an assistant coach at Ohio State University, and we knew about LeBron James as a freshman and started recruiting him early and continued to recruit him hard until his junior season. Watching James compete in high school and on the summer circuit was a treat. He would impact games as an underclassman with his athletic ability, playmaking talent and winning mentality. As he entered his junior season of high school, it was becoming evident that his career would bypass college. During his junior season, an Eastern Conference NBA scout once told me to save our postage and gas money: "He will be the No. 1 pick in the draft." Not only was he the best recruit I have seen, he was one of the most exciting.
Adam Finkelstein: Kevin Durant
I remember seeing Kevin Durant for the first time at the HoopHall Classic. I was still coaching in college and a year away from transitioning into the recruiting side of the business. But what I distinctly remember was this 7-footer who kept hoisting 3s and had zero interest in going inside the paint. At the time, I remember thinking, "How can this kid be one of the best high school players in the country?" when he'd struggle to physically compete at our level? (And I was coaching at a low-major school at the time.)
It was the beginning of an important lesson about learning to balance the here-and-now with the long-term projection. The irony is that even now, if we're at a big national event where coaches are allowed to evaluate, I'll have friends coaching at low- to mid-major schools who are in a similar spot, seeing high-profile national kids for the first time, and now I'm the one answering the "How can that kid be ranked that high?" question. I usually end up telling my Kevin Durant story.
Jeff Borzello: Ben Simmons
At the time, I didn't realize how good Anthony Davis would be. He played on a dreadful high school team that got blown out in every big event it played in during the school season. And he didn't make a huge splash on the grassroots circuit for more than a few months. I actually thought there was a chance Michael Kidd-Gilchrist could match his impact from that high school class.
For me, it comes down to two guys: Andrew Wiggins and Ben Simmons. Wiggins was awesome, and he had one of the best performances I've ever seen, against Julius Randle at the Nike Peach Jam before their senior seasons. The No. 1 debate between Wiggins, Randle and Jabari Parker was barely a conversation -- which just shows how good Wiggins was.
For me, though, the answer is Simmons. I knew he was going to be a monster from the first time I saw him at Pangos All-American Camp in the spring of 2012, toward the end of his freshman year in high school. Simmons, an Australian, still wasn't playing in the United States at that point. But he was tremendous, showing off elite transition ability and already creating matchup problems at that age. That never changed at the high school level, and he became one of the best passers and playmakers I've ever seen. He was always the best player in the 2015 class, in my opinion, and I knew he was going to be a special player.
Myron Medcalf: O.J. Mayo
I'll go with O.J. Mayo. I saw him with Greg Oden at Reebok ABCD camp in New Jersey in 2004. I was an intern at ESPN The Magazine, and they sent us to analyze some of the top players at the event. There were definitely future stars in the building. Oden was a grown man. I couldn't understand Monta Ellis' speed. Bill Walker had game, too. But Mayo was just so polished at that age. He was fluid. He played and acted like a pro. He finished in traffic like a 30-year-old pro. He was special. Multiple players from that event reached the NBA in the coming years. But I remember Mayo more than the others. He was clearly preparing for a future as a pro.
The recruits we underrated
Paul Biancardi: Donovan Mitchell
There are plenty of prospects who go underrated or simply blossom late in their careers. In the Class of 2015, Donovan Mitchell was one of the best players and turned into one of the best stories. He was an aggressive, powerful and talented scoring guard with strength, a top-50 recruit who demonstrated talent, production and potential both in games and practices. Mitchell was different from many of his peers in high school. He worked on his game, was a great listener who asked questions to learn more and never got consumed with his ranking.
He grew tremendously at Louisville, turned into the No. 13 pick in the 2017 draft, made the all-rookie team in 2018 and was an All-Star this season. "What he is doing now in the NBA is no surprise to me," said Jason Smith, who coached him at Brewster Academy. "I did think it would take more time. His character, humility and lack of entitlement is what makes him special."
Adam Finkelstein: Trae Young
Trae Young was a five-star prospect, but I'd be lying if I said I expected him to have this type of career after high school. When he got to Oklahoma and put up those ridiculous numbers, I said, "OK, he's obviously a heck of a lot better than I expected, but he can't do this at the next level." Well, I was wrong again. To see him continue to raise the bar with each passing year, he has been incredibly impressive to watch. I think timing is really important with Young -- the game has become more guard-oriented and, in the wake of guys like Steve Nash and Steph Curry, we're seeing teams willing to sacrifice size and physicality for immense skill in a way that might not have been the case in previous decades.
I also think confidence is such a factor with Young. I'm always leery of point guards who others don't want to play with, and admittedly, I wondered if he fell into that category in high school. I'm still not convinced he didn't, but because his confidence and work ethic are as incredible as his skill set, he hasn't ever lost his edge and really made it a mission at every level to prove people wrong. I'm happy to be one of them, because he's one of the game's great guards now.
Myron Medcalf: Zeke Nnaji
I saw a young Zeke Nnaji at AAU tournaments throughout Minneapolis. He was long and bouncy but awkward. He was trying to find himself in those early years. While I figured he had the potential to develop into a solid big man, I didn't think I was watching a future Arizona star and projected first-round pick in this summer's NBA draft. I was shocked to see him average 16.1 points and 8.6 rebounds as a freshman with the Wildcats. The kid I saw years ago in Minneapolis? I never expected him to blossom into this.
Jeff Borzello: Udoka Azubuike
I watched him a number of times in high school and on the AAU circuit, and I saw him physically dominate opponents around the rim. It was impressive, but I didn't think it would necessarily translate to the college game. Azubuike was one of the best players in the country his final season at Kansas, and I just never saw that coming. He maintained that physical advantage over his opponents, and he also varied his finishing around the rim, added some touch to his faceup game and improved his conditioning and ability to avoid fouls. I'm still not totally convinced his dominance inside will translate to the NBA game, especially with the direction the pro game has been heading, but I think he'll carve out a role at the next level. A couple of honorable mentions for me would be Karl-Anthony Towns and Steven Adams.
The recruits we overhyped
Adam Finkelstein: Josh Jackson
I got Josh Jackson wrong, and I had a lot of company. I really thought he had a chance to be elite, and I'm not afraid to own it now. He was a high-level athlete with positional size, competitiveness and even a passing instinct. Other highly touted prospects, even ones who are now NBA stars, were intimidated by him. The fact that he wasn't a great shooter got a lot of attention at the time, but I remember being equally concerned about the fact that he wasn't really instinctive when it came to scoring or creating. Ultimately though, I think the fact that he hasn't become what many of us projected has a lot more to do with his approach and decisions since. Handling stardom at such a young age is a difficult thing, and we've seen a lot of guys who have acted like the early projections were more of a destination than just an early advantage in a very long race. That's why the longer I've done this, the more I've paid attention to their humility, the people they surround themselves with and how much they change as they experience success.
Paul Biancardi: Cliff Alexander
In the Class of 2014, Alexander overpowered his high school peers with strength, power and size. He was relentless on the backboard, posted up on the blocks and played with what everyone refers to today as a "high motor." He was a former McDonald's All American, Naismith Boys' High School Player of the Year and co-MVP of the Jordan Brand Classic. He was a dominant force and had an arsenal of thunderous dunks with Curie High School in Chicago and on the summer circuit.
Yet Alexander was inconsistent at Kansas. His skill level and basketball instincts never caught up to his physicality. He had to sit out late February due to NCAA eligibility rules and went undrafted after declaring for the NBA following his freshman season. Alexander has spent most of his professional career with G League affiliates and is now playing overseas. He was highly ranked since his sophomore year based on his physical measurables and tenacity, but his situation affirms how important skill and basketball IQ are in today's game.
Myron Medcalf: Conner Frankamp
I haven't covered recruiting, specifically, the way my colleagues in this roundtable have. But I was really high on Conner Frankamp after watching him compete with players such as Jabari Parker and Jahlil Okafor at the U.S. under-16 national team tryouts in 2011. He was unstoppable on a squad with Tyus Jones and Okafor in those practices. He was a four-star recruit who went to Kansas, where he never found a role before transferring to Wichita State after his freshman season. He put up solid numbers with the Shockers, but I thought he would have blossomed into a star at the collegiate level.
Jeff Borzello: Cheick Diallo
There's no shortage of guys I've been off on since entering the recruiting coverage game in 2008, including a couple of early names like Kenny Boynton and Keala King. The biggest one was probably Cliff Alexander, but I'll throw another former Kansas Jayhawk out there: Cheick Diallo. I thought Diallo was a high-floor option due to his motor and rebounding ability; he simply outworked most guys at the high school level and could run the floor and make plays at both ends of the floor. That didn't pan out. Diallo played just 7.5 minutes per game during his one season in Lawrence, averaging 3.0 points and 2.5 rebounds. It didn't help that Diallo wasn't cleared to play until a month into the season, but he still didn't make the anticipated impact. He left for the NBA after that one season at Kansas -- and has been better at the pro level than in college.
The best high school freshmen we've ever seen
Myron Medcalf: Tyus Jones
Jones had been a star at Minnesota's Apple Valley High School, which also produced future Duke stars Tre Jones and Gary Trent Jr., when he emerged as a freshman who generated buzz around the country. The future NCAA tournament Most Outstanding Player had his best moment as a freshman (rising sophomore) at Peach Jam, playing in front of Mike Krzyzewski, Tom Izzo, Thad Matta, Bill Self and other powerhouse coaches. With his team down double digits, Jones put together a breathtaking effort and led his team to a comeback win. He shocked the whole gym. One Division I assistant told me he thought Jones could have helped a college program at that age. It was a breakout effort for the future Duke star.
Jeff Borzello: Emoni Bates
I already discussed my opinion of Simmons in the first question, and I think he's absolutely in the conversation as the best true freshman. Maybe it's recency bias, but I think Emoni Bates might be even better than Simmons at this stage. There's something special about Bates when you watch him play. He's smooth, can handle and is an elite-level shooter. He has a swagger about him when he plays. I think the difference between Bates and Simmons at the freshman level is Bates' shooting ability. Simmons wasn't a good shooter early in his high school career (and still isn't), but Bates has deep, deep range. Bates needs to get stronger and add muscle, but if he continues at this trajectory, he has a chance to be a transcendent player.
Adam Finkelstein: Mo Bamba
I remember the first time I saw Mo Bamba. He was a 14-year-old freshman, I think, running around in a camp. He didn't dominate the game by any stretch, but his long-term tools were so obvious at first glance. He had arms for days, was fluid for someone so young and still growing so rapidly, and he ran with these effortless, beautiful strides. I'm not a big believer of getting more than a quick snapshot that early on, but there haven't been many kids that age whose tools were so immediately obvious.
Paul Biancardi: O.J. Mayo
I have seen so many incredible freshmen over my career, but two quickly come to mind. One is Jabari Parker, who did something few freshmen at powerful Simeon Academy did: start on varsity. His early size, basketball IQ and playmaking abilities all stood out to me. The other player that comes to mind is O.J. Mayo. There was plenty of hype surrounding Mayo, and it was warranted. He started playing varsity in middle school at Kentucky's Rose Christian High School. By the time he was a freshman, his game was mature, and he could handle older players. Mayo had good size and strength, as he was terrific at creating fouls on opponents, and his athletic ability was elite. Not only did I watch Mayo as a freshman, but I had the opportunity to coach him as a senior on the summer circuit at the prestigious ABCD camp. He went on to be the No. 3 pick in the 2008 NBA draft.