Last May, after securing the nation's No. 1-ranked recruiting class, Memphis head coach Penny Hardaway made a bold proclamation: "We want all the smoke."
He doubled down before the season, telling The Athletic, "We're going to win a national championship."
After Tuesday's loss at SMU, Memphis is now 19-9 on the season and 8-7 in the American Athletic Conference. The Tigers have slipped entirely off the NCAA tournament bubble and are headed for the NIT if they don't win the conference tournament. In other words, no national championship.
So what happened? And where does Memphis go from here? I talked to coaches around the league and to get a feel for where things stand with the Tigers.
How did Memphis get here?
James Wiseman
When Hardaway made the bold proclamations last spring and before the season, he expected to have potential No. 1 pick James Wiseman in the fold. The top-ranked prospect in the 2019 class, Wiseman played just three games for the Tigers before being suspended by the NCAA, which found that Hardaway provided $11,500 in moving expenses to Wiseman's mother to relocate to Memphis in 2017. Wiseman was ultimately suspended for 12 games, but he announced in December he was leaving school to prepare for the NBA draft.
"He would be the best player in America," one AAC coach said of Wiseman. "And in college basketball this year, if you put the best player in America on any bubble team, any tournament-type team, they're gonna have a pretty good shot at [winning a championship]. I don't think [Hardaway] was wrong. How much more wide open would their shooters be? How much cleaner are those passes? How much easier are those reads if teams have to throw a second, third defender at Wiseman? Take any top-10 team in the country and immediately remove their best player."
Even without Wiseman, Memphis has a top-10 defense in adjusted efficiency at KenPom, and the Tigers rank No. 1 in defensive effective field goal percentage. They're top 12 in 2-point and 3-point percentage defense.
"And you add a goalie to that," one opposing coach said. "It's within reason to say they would have the best defense in college basketball this season."
Injuries
Memphis has played 28 games this season, and only five players have been available for all 28. The most notable of the injured players has been D.J. Jeffries, who has missed the past eight contests with a knee injury.
A former five-star prospect, Jeffries was consistently Memphis' second-best player, averaging 10.8 points and 4.3 rebounds.
"Penny has lost two of his three best players for huge, huge, huge chunks of the season and they're still gonna win 20 games," one opposing coach said. "But it's Memphis; people just see that they lost. Nobody actually reads between the lines, sees the mitigating factors."
Growing pains
Here are perhaps the two biggest issues for Memphis this season: (1) Nearly the entire team is comprised of freshmen and sophomores; and (2) while the Tigers did indeed bring in the No. 1-ranked recruiting class, it wasn't exactly made up of can't-miss, NBA-caliber talent -- especially once you take out Wiseman.
"Memphis has one draft pick on their roster," one opposing coach said.
"Precious [Achiuwa] is that kind of guy, a real one-and-done type," another coach said. "The rest of them aren't, man. Lester [Quinones], Boogie [Ellis], they're good players. But they're not like Kentucky when they were bringing in those No. 1 recruiting classes."
The entire rotation is made up of first- or second-year players, with the exception of senior big man Isaiah Maurice, who has started 19 games during his time in Memphis. As one AAC coach said, the turnover and outside shooting issues that have plagued the Tigers all season are indicative of how most freshmen- and sophomore-laden teams perform. When Hardaway took over the program last season, he had five senior starters. It was a blessing for his first campaign, but it meant an entire rebuild this season.
One of those five seniors was all-conference guard Jeremiah Martin, who finished in the top two in the league in scoring each of the past two seasons.
"He doesn't have a player on his team better than Jeremiah Martin was last year," one opposing coach said. "So you're replacing your best player. Nobody could guard that dude. He's a dominating, loud figure in your program. Penny is replacing his whole leadership infrastructure. That takes time. He's had to deal with that on the fly this year."
What's next?
Recruiting
The biggest question about Memphis moving forward is going to be whether Hardaway can continue recruiting at an extremely high level. The Tigers brought in the top class in the country, led by Wiseman, but they have zero prospects currently committed in the class of 2020. They are heavily in the mix for No. 1 overall prospect Jalen Green, but Auburn has made a strong push recently. Memphis also is considered to be one of the top two leaders for top-10 prospect Greg Brown, with Texas also near the top of his list. If the Tigers land both Green and Brown, that would significantly change the narrative surrounding Memphis.
"I think they'll be fine," one coach said. "The one thing he had up his sleeve was Wiseman and [Alex] Lomax, and all these guys were his guys already. When that dries up, that might make an impact. But his name still carries weight. He's got his shoe. We got our kids talking about his Foamposites. He'll keep getting dudes; they just gotta keep the talent coming in and get older."
Culture
The one thing coaches around the league have harped on the past two seasons is how hard Memphis plays, especially defensively.
Alex Lomax knocks the ball away from DeJon Jarreau and takes it the other way for a Memphis bucket.
"They guard their tail off," one coach said. "That's not on accident. They play so hard. They've got an aggressive, 94-foot defensive scheme. They're long, they're athletic and they play athletic. That's a huge feather in the coaching staff's cap. They get their guys to play so athletic. Say what you want about Penny as a coach, the thing that comes up so crystal clear is how hard they play for him."
"They play their asses off," another AAC coach said. "Penny's a good coach; they know what they're doing. They're really hands-on. I was impressed. Mike Miller, Cody Toppert, they're in the trenches with the guys, warming them up. I was wondering if they would sit back and just be NBA guys, because I've seen it before. But I was impressed with them."
Continuity
Next year is going to be an important one for Hardaway and Memphis. Achiuwa is likely to leave for the NBA draft, and Maurice is a senior, but every other notable player from this season's team should return.
Quinones and Ellis were both top-100 recruits coming out of high school and showed flashes this season, while Damion Baugh has started 22 games. Sophomores Lomax and Tyler Harris will be a year older on the perimeter, as well, and Jeffries should return fully healthy. Lance Thomas has had some good moments with Jeffries sidelined.
Hardaway will have to reinforce the roster, especially the frontcourt, either via freshmen or transfers. One big thing has stood out to opposing coaches: There haven't been too many rumblings or rumors of locker room issues or any sign of chemistry problems on the court -- two things that generally happen on teams that don't live up to preseason expectations.
"You haven't heard any issues," one coach said. "I was as skeptical as anyone. I felt a certain type of way. But when you take the emotion of it and just look at the job he's done, he's been pretty good, man."
"He's ridden with them. We've all seen ballyhooed freshmen dip and never return back," another coach echoed the sentiment of Hardaway. "He's got such a really endearing demeanor on the sideline. If you're a Memphis fan, he's got a young team that's a little erratic, that's got a lot of promise, but his team doesn't always play with awesome poise. But he's got a great demeanor. A calmness about him on the sideline with them. If you're a true Memphis fan, you can see tangible progress. Guys are improving in front of your eyes. Guys are really, really taking big steps forward in their games."
What about Penny Hardaway himself?
Hardaway unquestionably brought some of the negative narratives on himself by making the bold statements before the season started. And anytime someone gets a college coaching job without any experience on a college or NBA sideline, there's bound to be extra attention paid to him when there are struggles.
But here's the thing: He made those statements with the expectation he would have Wiseman.
"I loved it," an opposing coach said. "You set a different tone for your team. It's tough when it doesn't work out. He wanted all the smoke with James Wiseman. I don't think he would have been as confident now. But that's recruiting, that's college basketball."
"There's a million unknowns, but one of those unknowns is they could have all jelled and made it work," another coach said. "He's an outspoken person, so people are quick to point and laugh. And some of it he's brought on by himself; he's not a total victim. But he's played the hand he's been dealt pretty good. They've come to the fight ... The story is they've underachieved. But they took the best player in college basketball off them. If he had known he wouldn't have James Wiseman or D.J. Jeffries, he wouldn't have said s---."
Have coaches in the league noticed the program's momentum shifting back when they play in Memphis for road games?
Nope.
"That dude is still Santa Claus for that city," another coach said.
Five other things on my mind ...
1. Conference tournaments in a number of mid-major leagues begin next week, and this is the time of year when everyone starts wondering about Cinderella. Which teams likely to be seeded in the 12 to 16 range are potential upset picks in the first round of the NCAA tournament? Here are some teams to watch during conference tournaments to see if they have what it takes to make the dance and then win a game.
Northern Iowa: The Panthers seemed like a surefire at-large team earlier this month, but they went out and lost back-to-back games to Loyola Chicago and Indiana State -- meaning they might need to win the Missouri Valley tournament. Ben Jacobson oversees one of the best offenses in the country, led by sophomore guard AJ Green and four players shooting at least 37.9% from 3-point range. They've won at Colorado and beat South Carolina on a neutral court.
East Tennessee State: The Southern Conference has been one of the best mid-major conferences in the country over the past couple of seasons, and East Tennessee State has a chance at an at-large bid if it doesn't win the conference tournament. Steve Forbes has won 125 games in his five seasons at the helm, and the Buccaneers already have won at LSU by double digits this season. They're old, they're deep and they're hoping to get double-double threat Jeromy Rodriguez back after missing 13 games.
Liberty: One of the last remaining unbeatens in college basketball this season, Liberty started 14-0 before losing at LSU. The Flames have handled their business for the most part in the Atlantic Sun, and they will be expected to get back to the NCAA tournament -- where they upset Mississippi State last season. Four of the five starters from that game are back this season, and the one new starter (Darius McGhee) scored 15 points in the second round against Virginia Tech.
Yale: Heading into the season, Harvard was the team garnering all of the talk in the Ivy League. But it is Yale currently atop the standings. This is a team that beat Clemson on the road in the nonconference slate and took Penn State, Oklahoma State and North Carolina to the final minutes. (And Yale beat Vermont, the next team on this list.) Paul Atkinson and Jordan Bruner are two of the best players in the Ivy, and both played key roles in the narrow loss to LSU in last year's tournament.
Vermont: After a tough nonconference season, Vermont has once again controlled the America East standings. The Catamounts have lost five conference games in four seasons and are favored to get to their third NCAA tournament in four years. They played Florida State tough in the first round last season, and Anthony Lamb -- although he has been more inconsistent than expected this season -- is back to lead the way.
Stephen F. Austin: You might have heard, but the Lumberjacks beat Duke at Cameron Indoor Stadium back in November. And they've only lost twice since then, at Alabama and by one point at home to Texas A&M Corpus Christi. They play like the "Press Virginia" teams of recent years, ranking No. 1 in defensive turnover percentage and in the top five nationally in offensive rebounding percentage and free throw rate. Kyle Keller has a team that will be a nuisance for any opponent.
2. Which teams are playing their best basketball of the season at the right time? It's easy to do that qualitatively, but I wanted to cross-check that against the numbers. According to BartTorvik.com, here are the top five teams by adjusted efficiency in the month of February: Michigan, Kansas, Creighton, Baylor and Houston. Some other interesting rankings: Texas Tech (No. 6), Davidson (No. 7), Minnesota (No. 8) and Providence (No. 12).
Michigan and Creighton have risen into the top 20 in recent weeks, with the Wolverines winning five in a row and seven of eight and Creighton rattling off five wins in a row and nine of its past 10. So what's changed?
For Michigan, the answer is obvious: Isaiah Livers. The Wolverines are 12-3 when Livers plays more than 50% of the minutes and just 6-6 when he doesn't hit that threshold or doesn't play. But he has returned from groin and ankle injuries and has averaged 15.5 points over his past four games.
Creighton gains control of the loose ball on the floor, and after a quick give-and-go, Damien Jefferson is the beneficiary with a transition layup.
Creighton has become a more complete team over the second half of the season, with Southeast Missouri State transfer Denzel Mahoney becoming eligible. But the Bluejays also are just simply playing offense at a ridiculous level lately. In Big East play, Creighton is shooting 39.5% from 3 and scoring 111.6 points per 100 possessions.
3. The NCAA tournament won't be played on home courts, so having the ability to win away from home matters come March. What are some teams -- aside from those projected on the top two lines -- that have surprisingly impressive road/neutral records?
Kentucky: 7-2 road, 1-2 neutral. According to Torvik, Kentucky is No. 44 in home games and No. 8 in road games. That's a bizarre albeit impressive split.
Houston: 6-5 road, 3-0 neutral. The Cougars quietly have nine wins away from home. They've lost three of their past four road games, though.
Arizona State: 6-3 road, 1-3 neutral. The Sun Devils need to right their neutral-court record, but they've won three in a row on the road. They have two more this week at USC and UCLA.
Virginia: 6-4 road, 2-0 neutral. The Cavaliers have now won five of their past six road games, and they seem to be righting the ship heading down the stretch.
4. On the flip side, which teams have padded their win-loss record with mostly home games?
Rutgers: 1-8 road, 0-2 neutral. The biggest example of poor performance away from home. The only win came at Nebraska, and Rutgers has just one home game left this season.
Marquette and Ohio State: 3-6 road, 2-1 neutral. Both are 5-7 away from home, and both have seen five of their seven losses come by double digits.
Wisconsin: 4-6 road, 0-3 neutral. The Badgers have flown under the radar for their poor away-from-home performance thanks to Rutgers. They've lost four of their past five outside of Madison.
Oklahoma: 2-8 road, 3-1 neutral. The Sooners' road/neutral record is saved by their three neutral-court wins, but they've lost six straight road games and still have two more this season.
Indiana: 2-6 road, 2-0 neutral. Archie Miller's team has played itself into solid NCAA tournament position, but that road record is ugly -- especially since the second win came just last week.
Texas Tech: 3-6 road, 2-2 neutral. What makes the Red Raiders' record away from home surprising is that their best win came outside of Lubbock -- in New York City, against Louisville.
5. The recruiting landscape had been fairly quiet in recent weeks, but that ended on Tuesday night, when five-star junior point guard Khristian Lander announced his commitment to Indiana. Lander also has long been a candidate to reclassify into 2020.
Lander isn't the only highly touted high school junior who has been discussed as a possible reclassification candidate.
ESPN 60 forward William Jeffress recently made the decision to move into 2020, while four-star guard Josh Primo did the same earlier this month. ESPN 60 guard Zion Harmon set a decision date for next month, and he has been a strong candidate to reclassify.
No. 1 prospect Jonathan Kuminga has been widely discussed as likely to reclassify for most of the past year, but that is unlikely to happen for a few months. Top-10 prospects Moussa Diabate and Moussa Cisse are two others who have been mentioned as potential options to move into 2020. Other names that have come up in the reclassification discussion: Carter Whitt, Franck Kepnang, Frank Anselem, Warren Lynn Kidd, Lynn Greer III and Adama Sanogo.
Top-five prospect Paolo Banchero has constantly shut down speculation of a reclassification, while top-25 prospect Charles Bediako recently did the same. Manny Obaseki told ESPN in January that reclassifying is no longer a possibility.