The stage is set for the biggest game of the college basketball season up to this point: No. 3 Kansas at No. 1 Baylor on Saturday (noon ET, ESPN). Baylor has won 23 straight games since an early November loss to Washington, setting a Big 12 record by beating Oklahoma on Tuesday night. Meanwhile, Kansas has won 11 games in a row since falling at home to Baylor on Jan. 11.
Saturday's game will have ramifications for the Big 12 regular-season title race and the 1-seed discussion for the NCAA tournament. The winner could have the inside track for the overall 1-seed come Selection Sunday.
Every team in the Big 12 plays every other team in the league twice per season, so the teams and coaches are very familiar. For that reason, I reached out to a handful of coaches around the conference to break down the game and give predictions for Saturday.
Jared Butler vs. Devon Dotson
Two of the best point guards in the country will go head-to-head Saturday. Butler won the first matchup between the two stars, scoring 22 points and adding three assists, while Dotson struggled with a hip injury and finished with nine points on 10 shots. Since that game, Dotson has been on a tear, establishing himself as a legitimate Wooden Award contender. Butler has been up-and-down since that win but has totaled 43 points and hit 10 3-pointers in his past two games.
"I think Dotson is the player of the year in the conference by far," one Big 12 coach said.
"Jared Butler is the player of the year in our league," another coach said.
Dotson has had a tendency to struggle in Kansas' biggest games this season, but opposing coaches say he's more of a factor in pregame prep than Butler.
"Dotson is in a position where he controls the game," one Big 12 coach said. "They run ball-screen stuff for him. The transition stuff really impacts the game. We were more concerned about him because of the amount of time he has the ball in his hands."
"If he's hitting jump shots, there's nothing you can do with him," another coach added. "People want to go under pick-and-rolls, but he's going to get where he wants to go."
Butler's numbers are stifled some by the fact that he has more help on the perimeter. The Bears have four guards who can essentially go off at any given time: Butler, MaCio Teague, Davion Mitchell and Devonte Bandoo. But Butler has the ball late.
"Butler can take a game over at any time," one coach said.
MaCio Teague's availability -- and what it means
Teague, Baylor's second-leading scorer, has missed the past two games after suffering a wrist injury against Texas earlier this month. The Bears have won both games without him, but he's arguably the team's best pure scorer. He had scored at least 15 points in six straight games before he got hurt against the Longhorns.
His status for Saturday's game is unclear.
"He's our best player. He can space the floor, he can go inside. He's a mismatch nightmare. He's so smart within our offense. He knows the ins and outs of everything. What he can create is just unreal." Gonzaga freshman Drew Timme on Killian Tillie
There's no consensus from opposing coaches on how much his absence would impact Baylor.
"He changes a lot, because they have three guards who can dribble, shoot and pass. And the biggest thing defensively, they're able to guard every position. They don't have a bad defender out of those three. They're able to switch everything," one coach said. "If you're putting Bandoo in, you can attack him. He becomes the mismatch. His counter would be if he's making 3s. But if he's not making 3s, I don't think Baylor has enough firepower."
"They have four guards, so with Teague out, they still have three guards that can beat you. They're going to just play deeper minutes," another coach countered. "I don't know if it impacts them. They have four. Most teams don't have that. That's what makes them so good. One or two guys can have bad nights, that's their deal. They always got one or two of those four guards that can beat you. Those guys are all very similar players."
Which team is better defensively?
Kansas and Baylor rank No. 2 and No. 3, respectively, in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency metric, and both rank in the top seven nationally in scoring defense. Talking to Big 12 coaches, though, the two teams go about playing at that end very differently.
One coach said that Baylor has better individual defenders but that Kansas is better as a team.
"Baylor messed us up because they switch 1 through 5. That runs you out of everything," he said. "They don't let the ball in the post; they front. Mark Vital -- him and Marcus Garrett are the two best defenders in the conference. Baylor has better individual talents, and then Kansas has a good scheme. What they're doing, how they protect [Udoka] Azubuike in ball screens. They don't give up any second chances; they're able to get every rebound."
"[Freddie] Gillespie and Vital are terrific and understand their roles, but what makes Baylor so lethal defensively is the pressure you get from Mitchell, Butler, Teague and Bandoo," another coach said. "They are relentless and they neutralize guard penetration and they make it hard to catch in the post because of the way they heat up the ball."
One note on Garrett: He's one of the best, most versatile defenders in the country -- but he also went for 24 points and six 3-pointers over the weekend against Oklahoma. Kansas needs him to make shots.
"Garrett is the X factor," one coach said.
Udoka Azubuike's dominance
Kansas big man Azubuike is one of the most dominant players in college basketball. At 7 feet, 270 pounds, there are very few players in college basketball who can match him physically. He's an elite shot-blocker and rebounder, and he shoots 73% from the field. Azubuike blocked seven shots against Baylor in the first meeting but scored just six points.
Baylor fronted Azubuike, forcing the Jayhawks' guards to throw the ball over the top to him. Expect Baylor coach Scott Drew to do something similar Saturday, although he has to hope Tristan Clark can help Gillespie a bit more than Clark did in the first meeting (three fouls in six minutes).
The biggest thing for Baylor will be keeping the ball out of Azubuike's hands.
"His physicality and the way he plays around the rim, you can't simulate it in practice," one coach said. "Where he catches the ball, it's either two points or a foul. And part of fouling is you get them in the bonus so early. It just becomes another factor to deal with. He's just such a factor with his ability around the rim. He's not missing many inside of 8 feet."
There are two areas in which coaches say Azubuike can be exploited. One is at the free throw line, where the big man shoots just 42.5%. And at the other end of the floor, Azubuike can be vulnerable if he's forced to spend too much time away from the basket.
"Get him in space. Iowa State played [Michael] Jacobson at the 5 the other night, tried to pick-and-pop a little bit. Put [Azubuike] on the perimeter, make him try to guard ball screens, pop into shooters. You can play a skilled 5. I can see that giving him some problems," a Big 12 coach said. "And use up your fouls on him. When he buries you, which is going to happen, just use your fouls. That's how you hold him back."
Keys to the game
For Baylor, most of the coaches I spoke with pointed to the Bears' need to make shots from the perimeter. They're making only 32.5% of their 3-point attempts in conference play, and they've been a bit streaky in the Big 12 despite having four capable shooters.
On the other side, it boiled down to Kansas' two stars. Dotson and Azubuike form the best inside-outside tandem in the country, but neither player was at his best in the first meeting between the two teams. Dotson needs to get out in transition and needs to be effective with ball screens, and Azubuike needs to dominate down low. Gillespie isn't a match for him physically, but Azubuike simply couldn't get touches in good positions the first time around.
Picks
Baylor: "I think Baylor can win it all. I think they're deeper."
Baylor: "I'd pick Baylor. Baylor just has too many weapons, they have too many guys."
Kansas: "I would tend to lean toward Kansas. Baylor hasn't been at that level since that first game. This is the type of game Kansas has been built on. They're never rattled in games. It's never too big. They don't flinch."
Baylor: "It's hard to pick against Baylor. Their switching causes a lot of problems."
Baylor: "I think Baylor wins it. Azubuike is the toughest matchup in our league, and Baylor has the only front line that can handle him."
Potential Achilles' heels for title contenders
It's going to be a wide-open NCAA tournament, in theory, but there is a group of teams at the top of the rankings that have distinguished themselves as potential title contenders. The teams in the AP top five -- Baylor, Gonzaga, Kansas, San Diego State and Dayton -- are 65-1 since Jan. 1, with the lone loss coming by Kansas against top-ranked Baylor. The other two teams with a case to be in that top group or two of title contenders are Duke and Maryland, the ACC and Big Ten leaders, respectively, entering Wednesday.
But what could cause a slip-up come March?
Baylor: Inconsistency from 3. As mentioned above, the Bears rely heavily on their four guards to provide most of the team's offense. And while it's not often all four of them have off nights, the Bears' percentages from the perimeter in Big 12 play aren't great.
"For them to get beat, you're going to have to have three of their four guards have a bad shooting night -- which is hard," one Big 12 coach said.
Gonzaga: Health. Gonzaga is down to a six-man rotation with Killian Tillie seemingly being load-managed at this point in the season. The Bulldogs already lost Anton Watson for the season. Not only will fatigue become a factor in March, but if Tillie misses a game in the NCAA tournament, Gonzaga will have trouble replacing him.
"He's our best player," Gonzaga freshman Drew Timme told ESPN. "He can space the floor, he can go inside. He's a mismatch nightmare. He's so smart within our offense. He knows the ins and outs of everything. What he can create is just unreal."
Kansas: Depth behind Dotson. Bill Self doesn't really have a backup point guard, with Issac McBride leaving the program before the season started and Dajuan Harris redshirting this season. Garrett has provided some secondary ballhandling and playmaking, but Dotson getting into foul trouble or suffering an injury could be tough. An off night from Dotson could also spell trouble.
"Kansas goes as Dotson goes," one opposing coach said.
San Diego State: Nathan Mensah's availability. The sophomore center started the first 12 games of the season but has been out since the start of January with a respiratory issue. There's no definitive timetable for a return, but Mensah brings high-level shot-blocking ability. The Aztecs have survived without him, but that could be tougher against bigger teams.
"It'll be interesting when they have to go up against really elite size everywhere," one Mountain West coach said. "I don't know if they've been tested besides [Luka] Garza -- and they had Mensah for that."
Dayton: Post defense. Dayton doesn't face too many top-level big men in the Atlantic 10, but the Flyers have had some trouble with opposing bigs and have also struggled on the glass at times. VCU had 16 offensive rebounds the other night, and Duquesne had 15 in a close game earlier this season. Azubuike had 29 points when the two teams matched up in Maui.
Duke: Consistent perimeter shooting. Duke isn't a bad 3-point shooting team, but the Blue Devils can go through stretches when they really struggle to make shots. And their two best 3-point shooters, Matthew Hurt and Joey Baker, have seen their minutes fluctuate dramatically in ACC play. When the outside shots aren't falling, the half-court offense can stagnate and make things difficult for Tre Jones in the lane and Vernon Carey Jr. in the post.
Maryland: Outside shooting. While Baylor and Duke need to make shots to click at a high level offensively, Maryland simply isn't a very good 3-point shooting team. The Terrapins rank around 250th nationally in 3-point percentage, and that hasn't gotten much better in Big Ten play, where Maryland ranks 10th in the league. In Maryland's four losses this season, it has shot 27.2% from behind the arc. Jalen Smith is the team's best perimeter shooter, but he has made just about one 3-pointer per game and Mark Turgeon would likely prefer him around the rim.
Questions for Selection Sunday
We're exactly 24 days out from the most drama-filled day on the college basketball calendar: Selection Sunday. A lot will change over the next 3½ weeks, but there are already two big questions that will shape the bracket.
San Diego State or Gonzaga?
At this stage, both teams are likely 1-seeds. They were both 1-seeds in the top-16 reveal earlier this month, and presumably nothing has changed. If neither team loses the rest of the way, I'd expect we'll see both teams on the top line of a region. But which team gets to stay out West and which team heads to New York? Gonzaga went to Los Angeles in the top-16 reveal, and San Diego State was shipped to Madison Square Garden for the East Regional. If nothing changes -- and Gonzaga going unbeaten the rest of the way means at least three more wins over BYU and/or Saint Mary's -- an undefeated San Diego State team could have to face the likes of Duke and Seton Hall in New York.
How does the committee value the Big Ten?
It appears the 12-bid dream of the Big Ten is likely over, with Minnesota and Purdue both hovering around the .500 mark overall. But there are still hopes of earning double-digit bids, and most projected brackets have 11 teams from the league right now. Will the committee see things the same way? Ten of the teams ranked inside the top 35 of the NET heading into Wednesday night, which is a good sign, but Indiana is in the 60s. The bloated Quadrant 1 records for the Big Ten teams come from beating up on each other, so how the committee views the jumble of teams outside the top three will be important for seeding and for inclusion.
Other questions
What happens with Rutgers? The Scarlet Knights are 17-1 at the RAC, but just 1-6 away from home. The committee values winning on the road.
Mid-major love? Northern Iowa and East Tennessee State have developed at-large-caliber résumés, but will the committee see it the same way if either team loses in its conference tournament?
What about bloated NET rankings? Arizona was ranked No. 8 in the NET entering Wednesday, but the Wildcats are just 3-5 against Quadrant 1 opponents and 7-6 against Quadrants 1 and 2. What will the committee value the most?