We've passed the halfway point in just about every Division I conference, so it's time to revisit the over/under totals for all projected multibid leagues:
Big Ten
• Last season: 8
• Five-year average: 6.6
• January bet: Over 8.5
• Current projection: 11
The Big Ten is rolling toward a double-digit total of NCAA bids. The conference record is eight, set last year, with only Northwestern and Nebraska out of contention for Selection Sunday 2020.
The most vulnerable Big Ten teams are Indiana, which has lost four in a row, and Minnesota, which has lost three of four and is just 12-11 overall. Even if both miss, the conference will have 10 bids. If both make it, the Big Ten will eclipse the record of 11 set by the Big East in 2011.
Either way, or even something in the middle, and the January bet cashes.
Big East
• Last season: 4
• Five-year average: 5.6
• January bet: Under 7.5
• Current projection: 6
At the start of conference play, the Big East was checking in with up to eight projected NCAA bids. But DePaul and St. John's have crashed in the league, leaving Xavier, Providence and Georgetown as the remaining bubble teams.
All three would have to make it to lose our January bet, and that's not happening.
Big 12
• Last season: 6
• Five-year average: 6.4
• January bet: Under 6.5
• Current projection: 5
Kansas is back in its typical position at the top of the Big 12 and also the top line of all bracket projections. Baylor and West Virginia have been terrific, and Texas Tech showed what it can become in the December pasting of then top-ranked Louisville.
The Big 12 is producing a season of haves and have-nots. The "haves" are going to the NCAA tournament: Baylor, Kansas, West Virginia, Texas Tech and Oklahoma. The "have nots" can't get there from here.
In other words, another winning bet.
ACC
• Last season: 7
• Five-year average: 6.8
• January bet: Over 5.5
• Current projection: 4
As we wrote last week, the ACC is having a historically poor season, at least by its own lofty standards. We assumed the middle of the conference would bounce back in league play, but it simply hasn't happened. Even defending national champion Virginia is scraping to get back in the NCAA field.
Too many losing teams makes for our first losing bet.
Pac-12
• Last season: 3
• Five-year average: 4.2
• January bet: Over 5.5
• Current projection: 5
This one is too close to call, with Stanford sitting among the Last Four In and Arizona State just entering the First Four Out. Both would have to make it for our bet to cash. I'm not ruling it out, but the odds are against it at this point.
SEC
• Last season: 7
• Five-year average: 5.6
• January bet: Over 4.5
• Current projection: 5
Auburn holds the conference tiebreaker with head-to-head victories over Kentucky and LSU. That top trio will carry the SEC banner come March.
Arkansas, Florida and Mississippi State are bubble teams, each with different issues. Arkansas is under .500 in the conference, Florida's whole is weaker than the sum of the parts and Mississippi State is 1-6 in Quad One games.
Two of those three need to make the field to cash on the over. I'd feel a lot better if Florida could be trusted.
American
• Last season: 4
• Five-year average: 3.0
• January bet: Over 2.5
• Current projection: 2
The American has slipped below two projected bids for the first time all season, but I don't expect it to last. Both Cincinnati and Memphis -- currently among the First Four Out -- are NCAA-quality teams. At least one should rejoin the field between now and Selection Sunday.
WCC
• Last season: 2
• Five-year average: 1.4
• Current projection: Over 2.5
• Current projection: 3
We've learned two things about the West Coast Conference this season. One, BYU and Saint Mary's are very good teams when healthy. And, two, neither is anywhere near Gonzaga's level.
The Zags have beaten BYU by 23 and the Gaels by 30 in Moraga. Return games await, but it won't matter. Gonzaga is going to be an NCAA No. 1 seed and the WCC is going to enjoy three bids for the first time since 2012.
Mountain West
• Last season: 2
• Five-year average: 1.6
• January bet: Over 1.5
• Current projection: 1
What seemed to be a losing bet may not be. Preseason favorite Utah State has won five of six, losing only to San Diego State, and 7-foot sophomore Neemias Queta has been healthy enough to post back-to-back 21-point games.
The Aggies aren't catching the Aztecs at the top of the conference, but they've reached "Next Four Out" status and will be a live bubble team the rest of the way.
Atlantic 10
• Last season: 2
• Five-year average: 2.8
• January bet: Over 1.5
• Current projection: 3
The most underrated team in the Atlantic 10 is ... Rhode Island. Understandably overshadowed by Dayton, the Rams have quietly become a solid at-large pick and the A-10 can starting rooting for the likes of VCU and Richmond to boost its bid total. Cash another over.