With nearly 1,000 transfers every year in college basketball, it's hardly a surprise when a player leaves a program. Message boards, social media, simply reading the tea leaves -- it's generally easy to discern which kids might ultimately decide to find a new destination.
But Kobe King's decision to transfer from Wisconsin in late January still managed to raise eyebrows. Word started to spread a few days earlier, when the Badgers announced that King would not play against Iowa to deal with a personal matter. It was clear King was unhappy, and a parting seemed imminent.
That came Jan. 29, when King announced on social media that he was leaving the program.
"This has been a very tough decision for me, however after spending almost 3 years in the Wisconsin program I have realized that this program is not the right fit for me as a player and person," King wrote.
His departure brought out a number of opinions. The optics around King's decision were what drew attention: This was a player who started 19 games this season and was the team's second-leading scorer, deciding to leave with 10 games left in the regular season.
King couldn't be reached for this story, but he spoke to the Wisconsin State Journal shortly after his departure. According to the story, King told his coaches and teammates he was leaving the team before the announcement about him missing the Iowa game.
"I thought it was best for not only myself -- but for [the team] -- for me to step away from the program just because I knew my heart wouldn't be into it again," King told the paper. "I hear people say I'm a quitter. I talked to five, six [teammates] before I even told the coaches I was thinking of doing this. These were my closest guys, and if one of them would have told me it felt like I was quitting [on them] by doing it right now, I never would have said anything."
While Wisconsin fans were of course unhappy with the decision, I wanted to get a feel for how other coaches felt about it -- especially the timing. And perhaps somewhat surprisingly, it was nearly unanimous in favor of King transferring. The main reason? It's better to have an unhappy player leave than try to convince him to stay and have that unhappy player around the locker room.
"You're concerned mostly about your team and your locker room and that sort of dynamic," one high-major coach said. "If he's unhappy, does his attitude permeate the group? Does it become a negative force on other guys in the locker room? Does it create some divisiveness? You have to be open to the idea of the guy not being around your program anymore. It's also probably not the first time you're made aware of the fact he's unhappy.
"You're still disappointed in the timing of things. You're wishing it hadn't happened, he's one of the better players on the team. You want to keep everybody on the ship. In your push to make the NCAA tournament, it becomes a distraction, and it's one less player on the court. So it's something you wish you could've avoided. But once he makes the determination that he's leaving, you're not working at that point to bring him back."
"I'm a show-goes-on-type of guy," another coach added. "So I don't really care ... If he's unhappy, then it will probably be good he's gone, for everyone's sake."
One coach pointed out how it's not the first time something like this has happened this season. Georgetown lost Big East Freshman of the Year James Akinjo after seven games.
"From my perspective, if any kid is unhappy, they have the right to leave," a Big Ten coach said. "It's gotten to the point that it just comes with the territory."
Most of the coaches I spoke with mentioned the chemistry aspect of a decision like this. If the entire team knows a player is unhappy, it's going to be the elephant in the room on a daily basis. As a result, sometimes it's just better if everyone parts ways.
"The timing was less than ideal. As a coach, you want a locker room of guys that want to be in your program," one coach said. "Culture is more important than talent in a lot of respects."
While it was a drama-filled few days for King and the Badgers, it seems like it might work out for both sides. King has generated high-major interest, according to sources, and Wisconsin beat Michigan State in its first game after King's departure.
How will teams replace surprise early NBA entrants?
It has become more difficult to plan college basketball rosters two or three years into the future, due to the proliferation of transfers and the availability of high-level talent in the transfer portal every spring. One area where college coaches have generally done well, however, is preparing for players to leave for the NBA draft. Five-star prospects likely need to be replaced after one season, a player poised for a breakout sophomore season likely needs a replacement, etc.
But sometimes, surprises happen. Perhaps the best example of this is Syracuse and Tyler Ennis in 2014. The Orange were hoping Ennis would stick around for two years, Kaleb Joseph would learn behind him for a season and then they could figure out their point guard situation from there. Instead, Ennis was one of the best freshmen in the country in 2013-14 and left after one season. An unprepared freshman, Joseph was thrust into the starting point role immediately -- and the Orange stumbled to an 18-13 finish. (Joseph was benched for most of the next season and eventually transferred to Creighton).
Comparing ESPN's preseason NBA mock draft back in September and its current top 100 big board, there are several surprise breakout stars who are likely headed to the NBA earlier than expected. Do teams have ready-made replacements waiting in the wings?
Isaac Okoro, Auburn Tigers (No. 14): Okoro was known as a high-motor, two-way player in high school -- perfect for Bruce Pearl's system. But he has shown off high-level athleticism and his outside shooting touch has improved since the start of the season. Pearl is already losing four senior starters and his sixth man from this year's team, so he might be facing a complete reboot if Okoro bolts for the NBA. Fortunately, the Tigers have a very good recruiting class coming in -- and it's a group that could get better moving forward. Five-star point guard Sharife Cooper is the headline, but they've also made up a lot of ground for No. 1 overall prospect Jalen Green and top-10 prospect Greg Brown.
Onyeka Okongwu, USC Trojans (No. 15): Okongwu wasn't as highly ranked as classmate Isaiah Mobley in the 2019 class, but Okongwu has been one of the most dominant big men in the country. He's averaging 16.7 points and 9.1 rebounds, while also blocking 3.0 shots. There was a chance Andy Enfield was going to have Mobley, Okongwu and No. 2 senior Evan Mobley all in the same frontcourt, much like the Compton Magic did in the summer of 2018 -- but with Okongwu likely gone, it's going to be the Mobley Brothers' show in the USC frontcourt next season. Both players are long, skilled and athletic and should create matchup problems.
Zeke Nnaji, Arizona Wildcats (No. 21): Heading into the season, Sean Miller's incoming backcourt duo of Nico Mannion and Josh Green was garnering most of the attention -- and both have played well and are still likely one-and-done. But the buzz about Nnaji began late in the summer, and he has lived up to it. The 6-foot-11 big man is putting up 16.2 points and 8.8 boards and has shown aggressiveness and a motor on a consistent basis. Waiting in the wings for the Wildcats is Nevada transfer Jordan Brown, a former McDonald's All American who struggled to carve out a role in Reno. He's likely to step into the starting lineup immediately next season.
Robert Woodard, Mississippi State Bulldogs (No. 24): Reggie Perry's recent performances have stolen the headlines for Ben Howland's program, but Woodard is climbing up draft boards as well. It's easy to see why: Woodard is 6-7, 230 pounds, is athletic and aggressive at the rim and is shooting 48% from 3-point range. If Woodard (and Perry) leaves early for the draft, Howland could go with a smaller lineup featuring Nick Weatherspoon, Iverson Molinar and incoming freshman Deivon Smith on the perimeter and 6-6 D.J. Stewart playing a small-ball power forward role. He also has three-star forward Cameron Matthews entering the fold.
Jahmi'us Ramsey, Texas Tech Red Raiders (No. 25): Despite not being ranked as a five-star prospect, Ramsey's impact at Texas Tech was fairly easy to see coming. He was a highly effective two-way player in high school and Chris Beard needed to replace most of his rotation from last season. Ramsey was ready to fill that void, and he's averaging 15.7 points. Stepping into his shoes next season will be Nimari Burnett, the program's first-ever five-star prospect and McDonald's All American. Burnett is capable of playing on or off the ball and will be expected to be an impact piece in Lubbock right away.
Devin Vassell, Florida State Seminoles (No. 30): Vassell's breakout sophomore campaign has been one of the more surprising stories in the ACC. He was a lightly recruited player out of high school, with Florida State becoming his first high-major offer in April 2017 -- and Vassell committed a week after earning the offer. He then averaged 4.5 points as a freshman. But he's now showing the total package, and long, athletic wings who can shoot 42.7% from 3 are sought after at the next level. It will be interesting to see what Leonard Hamilton does next season. Freshman Patrick Williams could be a first-round pick, but he has been inconsistent in his first year of college ball. Williams is a perfect replacement if he returns to school. If they both leave, look for junior college transfer Sardaar Calhoun to pick up the scoring slack and top-10 freshman Scottie Barnes to bring playmaking and versatility.
Jared Butler, Baylor Bears (No. 46): The point guard at the heart of Baylor's No. 1 ranking, Butler has moved into the second-round range of ESPN's recent big board. He's averaging 15.3 points and 2.9 assists, while shooting 37.6% from 3. Butler is making plays at both ends of the floor and is working toward All-American honors. It's going to be impossible for Scott Drew to replicate what Butler has meant to the team, but he is bringing in an ESPN 100 point guard to step into his shoes. In-state prospect L.J. Cryer could get the keys to the Bears' offense early next season, though it helps that former transfers MaCio Teague and Davion Mitchell should still be around to help him in the backcourt.
Daniel Oturu, Minnesota Golden Gophers (No. 74): Oturu is not quite in the top 60 of the most recent rankings, but if he continues playing at this level, it's going to be hard for him to return for another season with the Golden Gophers. Oturu is averaging 19.7 points, 11.1 rebounds and 2.6 blocks -- and he has been simply dominant at times. It's a case of "what more can he do in college?" Richard Pitino will have to hope junior Eric Curry, who is missing this season with a knee injury, can return in 2020-21, but he's also bringing in three-star center Martice Mitchell.