Baylor clearly didn't get the memo on what is expected this season. The Bears took their No. 1 ranking on the road against a quality opponent and ... won at Florida? This is unheard of!
Scott Drew's group will still hold down the top ranking when the new poll comes out this week. The first hot take to be offered is therefore that Baylor is in a rut.
Here are some other hot takes I think I can prove:
San Diego State and Dayton are on track to do something historic
In Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology update, San Diego State is projected as a No. 1 seed, and Dayton is holding steady on the No. 2 line. In addition, the Aztecs and the Flyers entered the weekend ranked Nos. 1 and 5, respectively, in the NCAA Evaluation Tool (NET).
If SDSU and UD are able to hold on to these positions in the bracket, we'll be presented with something we haven't seen in a very long time. Members of the six major conferences -- the ACC, Big 12, Big East, Big Ten, Pac-12 and SEC -- have earned 89% of the bids that the men's basketball committee has awarded on the Nos. 1 and 2 lines since 1985.
(Fun fact: Duke, North Carolina, Kansas and Kentucky alone account for 30% of the bids earned on the top two seed lines in the modern tournament era -- since 1985. Not bad.)
Gonzaga has repeatedly crashed this party, naturally, as the Bulldogs have secured three No. 1 seeds in the past seven years. One thing we haven't seen in a while, however, is two teams from outside the major conferences being bracketed on the top two lines in the field of 68.
You have to go all the way back to 2004 to find a comparable state of affairs at the top of the bracket. That was the year when Saint Joseph's grabbed a No. 1 seed and Gonzaga was slotted on the No. 2 line (the first time in the program's history the Zags had been seeded so high).
Will San Diego State and Dayton close the deal and grab two of the top eight spots in the entire bracket? Their chances look good.
Start with the Aztecs. Brian Dutcher's 20-0 team is beginning from a position of strength as the top-ranked team in the NET in late January.
SDSU already has won what on paper is the toughest matchup the Mountain West Conference can throw at you: a road game versus Utah State. Running the table will be a stretch -- no MWC team has ever done it before in league play -- but Malachi Flynn & Co. combine what is likely the conference's best offense with far and away its top defense. That is a combination that will win you some games.
In theory, San Diego State falling from the top seed line would require multiple losses. Yet the Aztecs appear in good shape to reach Selection Sunday with a very small number in the loss column. Each passing SDSU win brings a No. 1 seed closer to reality.
The outlook is not so very different for 18-2 Dayton. Like the Aztecs, the Flyers are the class of their conference on paper. In Atlantic 10 play, Obi Toppin, Jalen Crutcher and their teammates are converting 62% of their 2-point attempts in a league where the average is 48%. This is one of the best offenses in Division I.
In short, San Diego State and Dayton are a combined 38-2. As long as these teams continue to win 95% of their games or anything close to it, they'll be very tough to knock off the top two seed lines.
Nowhere to be seen in mock brackets, Syracuse might make the tournament anyway
For a program with a national title and six Final Fours to its name, Syracuse has been strangely off the radar this season. There is a reason for that: Jim Boeheim's team hasn't played a single ranked opponent except for two games against (no longer ranked) Virginia.
Yet this particular overlooked team currently sits at 6-3 in the ACC, and it entered the weekend at No. 66 in the NET. While that NET ranking is a tad low for traditional at-large consideration, it isn't so far removed from recognized bubble types such as Richmond (No. 54), Georgetown (55) or Xavier (61).
Buddy Boeheim and Elijah Hughes form one of the most productive 3-point-making duos in Division I. Boeheim and Hughes have combined to drain 124 3s, all the more impressive in light of the fact that the Orange play at a deliberate tempo.
With Syracuse making 3s and the zone defense forcing opponents into an exceptionally high number of perimeter attempts, the typical game for the Orange turns into something of a shooting contest. That style tends to favor Jim Boeheim's group.
To this point in ACC play, Syracuse has been the fourth-best team in conference play, after Duke, Florida State and Louisville. The Orange have outscored their conference opponents by 0.10 points per possession. A scoring margin of that size sustained over an entire major-conference season would typically indicate a team that is a no-brainer for an at-large bid.
Jim Boeheim's men project to finish above .500 in ACC play, and in most seasons, that alone would be sufficient to advance to the NCAA tournament. This season, however, the ACC is weaker than usual, and something along the lines of a 12-8 or even a 13-7 record might be what Syracuse needs for an at-large bid. It appears the Orange could be up to that task.
Michigan State games are mostly about shot volume
On Friday night, Michigan State shot more accurately from the field than Indiana and scored effectively the same number of points at the free throw line, only to lose 67-63 in Bloomington. Archie Miller's Hoosiers earned more chances to score, and that is par for the course for Spartans opponents.
If Big Ten games were contests to see who could score the highest total in 100 turnover-less possessions, Tom Izzo's men would be unstoppable. By those rules, they would ring up 129 points with opponents recording just 109.
In real life, however, Michigan State gives the ball away about 20% of the time, while conference opponents do likewise on just 13% of their possessions. The Spartans' rebounding is good at both ends of the floor, but it isn't good enough to overcome that kind of disadvantage.
MSU opponents have exhibited extremely low turnover rates over the past six seasons, but what was different last season was that Michigan State took good care of the ball. That hasn't been the case thus far in Big Ten play, and that could be a concern going forward for the Spartans.