Saturday was a day for streaks to end. Clemson won its first game in Chapel Hill. Baylor won its first game in Lawrence. All of these runs ending just 11 days into the new decade leads to an inescapable conclusion: All streaks are doomed in the '20s.
Here are some other hot takes, but these are ones I think I can prove.
The Big Ten has a golden opportunity to flood the field of 68
It has already been quite a season for the Big Ten. Michigan State's alone atop the standings, just as we would have expected in the preseason. Past the Spartans, however, we had no way of knowing in advance just how strong the top 12 teams of the league would be.
You'll notice that the previous paragraph refers to the top 12 teams of what dogged research has revealed to be a 14-team conference. With apologies to Northwestern and Nebraska, it does not appear that either the Wildcats or the Cornhuskers will be making a play for an at-large bid in 2020.
As for the rest of the Big Ten: MSU, Ohio State, Maryland, Rutgers, Michigan, Penn State, Wisconsin, Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota and Purdue all entered the weekend ranked in the top 50 of the NET. Furthermore, Indiana was parked just outside that enclave at No. 56, but that was before the Hoosiers beat the Buckeyes by 12 in Bloomington. IU is likely to move up (and OSU will in all probability drop).
In any season, putting 12 teams in the top 56 of the NET would be a nifty feat of basketball hegemony that the conference commissioner could blow his horn about at length. In this particular season, however, this concentration of teams points to an unusual opportunity. The NCAA tournament needs to find 36 at-large teams somehow, and not every major conference is having the kind of season that the Big Ten is recording.
Specifically, the ACC and the SEC are having trouble finding bona fide tournament teams beneath each league's top tier. Obviously, Duke, Louisville and Florida State are cruising toward bids for the ACC, just as Auburn and Kentucky are for the SEC.
Past those five teams, however, things get iffier. For example, how many bids will the combination of Virginia, Arkansas, Florida, LSU and NC State earn? That's a tough answer to deliver in January, but it looks probable that the ACC and SEC will struggle to match the 14 bids the two conferences combined to earn in the 2019 tournament.
Every at-large bid that the ACC and/or SEC can't earn will find an eager recipient from a different conference, and it appears that the Big Ten will have plenty of candidates for those spots. Breaking the record of 11 bids set by the Big East in 2011 will be a tall task, but at a minimum, the Big Ten appears well positioned to break its mark of eight bids (set last March).
With so many teams near the top of the NET rankings, the Big Ten schedule will offer its teams an abundance of Quad 1 opportunities. Additionally, the men's basketball committee might be more forgiving of a sub-.500 record in Big Ten play than it would be if the same mark were coming from another league. These dynamics, plus the "down" seasons being suffered by other conferences, could add up to an exceptionally strong showing by the Big Ten on Selection Sunday.
Ron Hunter has earned a place in the coach of the year conversation
There's a time-honored ritual for selecting coach of the year candidates. Teams that are in the AP top 10 but weren't there in the preseason give us most of the aspirants in our COY pool. On that basis, coaches such as Baylor's Scott Drew and Butler's LaVall Jordan are very strong candidates.
You'll get no argument here on those two. Both coaches clearly deserve consideration for every accolade and honor the profession can offer. But can we acknowledge that this is the case while also expanding our screening methods just a bit?
Take Ron Hunter. Tulane isn't getting anywhere near an at-large bid or a top-25 ranking this season. But keep in mind that the former Georgia State coach took over a program that was 0-18 in the American (and 4-27 overall) just one year ago.
Hunter more or less started over in New Orleans. The Green Wave rank near the bottom of Division I in minutes continuity from last season at kenpom.com, and that has turned out to be a wise move. Tulane is 10-6 and 2-2 in the American, with a home win over Cincinnati and a road victory at Temple. Moreover, the team's two conference losses came to Memphis and Connecticut by a combined total of 17 points.
Tulane's "big three" consists of K.J. Lawson, Teshaun Hightower and Christion Thompson. Lawson is wrapping up a geographically diverse college career that started at Memphis and included one season at Kansas. Hightower made 20 starts over the course of two seasons at Georgia. Thompson played three full seasons at Rhode Island.
Hunter's well-traveled veterans have been making their 3s early in American play, a trend that has certainly helped to speed the rebuilding process. Still, Tulane has strengths that will serve the team well even when the outside shots don't fall.
Only Wichita State has posted a lower turnover percentage to this point in league play, and the Wave have been automatic at the line, hitting 80% of their free throws against American opponents. Measured in terms of what was expected versus what has been achieved, Hunter most certainly deserves a look as COY.
The Bears are getting it done with defense ... and shot volume
Jeff Borzello has already sung the praises of Baylor, and a program's first win at Allen Fieldhouse is surely sufficient grounds for a bit more singing. Scott Drew's men have started Big 12 play with one highly impressive display of defense.
Conference opponents have managed to score just 0.82 points per possession against this defense, a rather remarkable figure in light of the fact that Drew customarily pairs 6-foot-9 Freddie Gillespie with four teammates who are 6-foot-5 or smaller. If this is "small ball" on D, it has been effective.
The Bears have done more than play defense, however. They've also excelled at generating shot opportunities. Baylor's low turnover rate (17.8% in conference play) combined with outstanding offensive rebounding (BU has pulled down 39.4% of its misses against Big 12 opponents) have given Drew's men the highest shot volume of any offense in the league. That has been vital because the Bears began conference play by missing a good many shots.
Scoring points in large part through volume can be deceiving to the eye. We see all the misses, and we assume this offense must not be doing well. But when Gillespie and Mark Vital are recording a wealth of offensive rebounds off those misses, the points have a way of materializing just the same. Keep one eye on Baylor's shot volume this season.