Customarily, we enter the new calendar year with a Bracketology staple: How many NCAA tournament bids can your conference expect? Odds -- and conclusions! -- are courtesy of yours truly.
Big Ten
• Last season: 8
• Five-year average: 6.6
• Current projection: 9
• Over/under: 8.5
The Big Ten broke a conference record last year with eight NCAA teams, but could not end a national championship drought stretching back to Michigan State's victory in 2000. The Spartans did their best, reaching a fifth Final Four since their turn-of-the-century title, but again fell short.
This season, Michigan State was the consensus preseason No. 1 but may not even be the best team in the league. Ohio State, Maryland and Michigan have all displayed Final Four potential, and the depth below the top tier is substantial. Only two Big Ten entries -- Northwestern and Nebraska -- are out of the NCAA hunt, with the remaining dozen schools harboring legitimate tourney hopes.
Bet the OVER, as I think the Big Ten reaches double-digit bids on Selection Sunday.
Big East
• Last season: 4
• Five-year average: 5.6
• Current projection: 8
• Over/under: 7.5
The Big East has rebounded with a vengeance from last season's 3.5 NCAA bids (it was four, of course, but St. John's was terrible at the end of the season). Current projections have the league on pace to double its number from 2019, as pretty much everything has broken for the best in nonconference play.
For me, the big questions center around Georgetown's shrinking roster and DePaul's growing expectations. It seems more likely both miss rather than make the NCAA as a grinding conference schedule takes its toll.
Bet the UNDER, but with high hopes for Butler as a Big East sleeper in March.
Big 12
• Last season: 6
• Five-year average: 6.4
• Current projection: 6
• Over/under: 6.5
Kansas is back in its typical position at the top of the Big 12 and also the top line of all bracket projections. Baylor and West Virginia have been terrific, and Texas Tech showed what it can become in the December pasting of then top-ranked Louisville.
The league's bulk will again have to come from one state, with both Oklahoma and Oklahoma State sitting firmly on the bubble. I think this is the year Oklahoma's bubble finally bursts. The Sooners have managed consecutive at-large bids despite being a total of six games under .500 in conference play.
Bet the UNDER, as the Big 12's coattails aren't as long as usual.
ACC
• Last season: 7
• Five-year average: 6.8
• Current projection: 5
• Over/under: 5.5
The ACC has become dangerously top-heavy, at least from an NCAA bid perspective. The best teams remain national championship contenders, but fewer figure to make the field overall and the second weekend could be unusually quiet for the conference.
Who scares you after Duke, Louisville and perhaps Florida State? Maybe North Carolina gets it together, but the large group of likely bubble teams -- NC State, Virginia Tech, Miami, Syracuse, Notre Dame and Pitt -- seems to contain many more pretenders than contenders.
Bet the OVER, but only because someone else is bound to emerge from the ACC pack.
Pac-12
• Last season: 3
• Five-year average: 4.2
• Current projection: 5
• Over/under: 5.5
For a change, a majority of Pac-12 teams seem to be on the rise. This will help on Selection Sunday as the likes of Southern California, Oregon State and Arizona State try to boost the league's NCAA bid tally.
Bet the OVER, with Stanford holding on for its first tournament appearance since 2014.
SEC
• Last season: 7
• Five-year average: 5.6
• Current projection: 4
• Over/under: 4.5
Auburn is undefeated, and that is the only SEC headline worth repeating to this point of the season. Kentucky and Florida have been talented disappointments, and both Tennessee and LSU have recently dropped from the prospective NCAA field.
Bet the OVER, but not by enough to expect big things in March.
American
• Last season: 4
• Five-year average: 3.0
• Current projection: 3
• Over/under: 2.5
The gap is shrinking between the American and the Pac-12 or SEC, at least in terms of depth. Even a diminished Memphis has plenty of star power, and Wichita State has quickly caught up to its new surroundings. Temple has also impressed under new coach and former John Chaney star Aaron McKie.
Bet the OVER.
WCC
• Last season: 2
• Five-year average: 1.4
• Current projection: 3
• Over/under: 2.5
Both Saint Mary's and BYU are good enough to win a normal West Coast Conference. But the WCC hasn't been "normal" since Gonzaga made the jump to hyperspace. That's the bad news.
The good news is that Saint Mary's and BYU are solidly above the bubble, so bet the OVER.
Mountain West
• Last season: 2
• Five-year average: 1.6
• Current projection: 2
• Over/under: 1.5
As pleasant a surprise as undefeated San Diego State has been, Utah State has stumbled in the opposite direction. This week's blowout loss at UNLV drops the Aggies perilously close to the at-large cut line, and they figure to hover there unless or until 6-11 center Neemias Queta can overcome recurring knee issues.
Bet the OVER regardless, as the league is enjoying a timely resurgence.
Atlantic 10
• Last season: 2
• Five-year average: 2.8
• Current projection: 1
• Over/under: 1.5
The A-10 was cruising through its best nonconference in years. Then Dayton lost at the buzzer to Colorado; VCU dropped one-possession games to Purdue and Tennessee; Richmond lost unceremoniously to Radford; and Duquesne fell from the unbeaten ranks. Suddenly the talk of three or four bids disappeared.
Bet the OVER anyway. Somehow, the Atlantic 10 will find a way to its regular place as a multibid conference.