We can't know with certainty in November who the contenders really are for the national title. Still, history suggests we can have a pretty good idea about which teams fit that description.
While it's true that no preseason No. 1 has won the title since North Carolina did so in 2008-09, the preseason top 10 still holds a fair degree of predictive value. Seven of the last 10 (and 24 of the last 30) national champions were ranked in the top 10 in the preseason.
With that in mind, here's how each preseason AP top-10 team can deliver on its potential and actually win it all in 2020:
1. Michigan State Spartans
For the Spartans to win the title, Cassius Winston will need to have the senior season that everyone expects from him and he'll need help from teammates like, for example, Aaron Henry and Gabe Brown. MSU got to the 2019 Final Four thanks to outstanding offense and very good interior defense. Winston will do his part to see that the former continues, and it will also help if freshman shooting guard Rocket Watts really is as far along as Tom Izzo says he is. As for the interior D, Izzo's looking for someone or possibly a combination of someones to play alongside Xavier Tillman. Sophomores Thomas Kithier and Marcus Bingham and/or freshman Malik Hall will have every opportunity to show they can do that job.
Looking further down the road, Michigan State's ceiling will depend in part on simply who's available. Might we see eligibility this season for Marquette transfer Joey Hauser? A healthy Kyle Ahrens? Possibly even, eventually, a healthy Josh Langford? Any of the above coming to pass would be significant. All of the above would be kind of a big deal.
2. Kentucky Wildcats
With a veteran-by-Kentucky standards backcourt led by Ashton Hagans and Immanuel Quickley, the Wildcats should be able to repeat the efficient flourishes we saw from this offense last season. UK took pretty good care of the ball and was able to generate looks at the rim in SEC play, and freshman Tyrese Maxey could help both of those dynamics along in his own right. What has customarily set Kentucky apart, though, is the ability to create those good looks on offense while denying them to the opponent. This is where Nick Richards, EJ Montgomery and freshman Keion Brooks Jr. come in. The Wildcats held SEC opponents to 44% shooting on their 2s last season, and anything close to that could well mark this group as national title contenders. Note additionally that Bucknell transfer Nate Sestina has looked good on the boards in the preseason.
3. Kansas Jayhawks
Bill Self might have the nation's best duo, period (never mind inside-outside), in Udoka Azubuike and Devon Dotson. The Jayhawks have the luxury of putting two stars on the court who both make a measurable difference on defense. Azubuike is, to use an analytics term, enormous, and opposing teams have a tough time working around his presence in the paint. Throw in his historically good 2-point shooting, and you have an uncommonly proficient two-way player (though he struggles at the line). For his part, Dotson closed 2018-19 like a player on a mission. The sophomore will team with classmate Ochai Agbaji, junior Marcus Garrett and Iowa graduate transfer Isaiah Moss to give the Jayhawks a versatile nucleus beyond the arc that can collectively shoot, drive and defend.
Moss is nursing a hamstring injury, however, and in the exhibition season Self has experimented with playing Silvio De Sousa alongside Azubuike. KU's path to a title will entail finding the rotation, whether "going big" or playing "small ball," that can produce from both sides of the arc on offense and guard the perimeter on D.
4. Duke Blue Devils
On paper, Duke has the blend of experience and highly rated freshmen that calls to mind (even if it doesn't exactly equal) what we saw from Kentucky in 2011-12 and, yes, from Duke in 2014-15. Historically speaking, the two-veterans-and-three-freshmen model for a starting five has been known to get results now and then. Freshmen Vernon Carey, Matthew Hurt and Wendell Moore were ranked Nos. 6, 11 and 22 in the ESPN 100. None of the above are currently projected as 2020 lottery picks by ESPN.com (though Hurt is close at No. 16), so a national title for the Blue Devils this season will likely mean that one or more of these guys turned out to be better as freshmen than was previously forecast. As for the veterans, Tre Jones and Jack White (not to mention Jordan Goldwire and Javin DeLaurier) give Duke a shot at a third consecutive season of very good, if occasionally overlooked, team defense. Finally, as long as we're dialing up a national title run, some 3s from Alex O'Connell and/or Joey Baker wouldn't hurt.
5. Louisville Cardinals
The path to a national title for Louisville starts with better offense, and having the preseason ACC player of the year certainly helps. Jordan Nwora can score from either side of the arc, and the Cardinals project to show opposing defenses a perimeter-oriented look for a second straight season. Better 3-point accuracy from his teammates and a reduction in turnovers team-wide would give a boost to an offense that in ACC play, ranked No. 7 in a 15-team conference. Speaking of turnovers, more of them coming from opponents is about the only facet of performance that needs work on defense for the Cardinals.
6. Florida Gators
With a second consecutive outstanding freshman class arriving alongside Virginia Tech transfer Kerry Blackshear, Florida has earned its highest preseason ranking since 2006-07. Mike White now has the talent to take a gigantic step forward on offense (last season the Gators shot just 32% on their 3s in SEC play). Blackshear, Keyontae Johnson, Andrew Nembhard, Noah Locke, Tre Mann, Scottie Lewis and company will very likely take excellent care of the ball and force opponents into a higher-than-average number of turnovers. If in addition Florida also gets the ball in the basket, you could be looking at a national championship season.
7. Maryland Terrapins
On each "effective" (turnover-less) possession in Big Ten play last season, Maryland outscored its opponents by 0.17 points per possession. To put that number in perspective, it's a hair larger than the margin by which Michigan State outscored its conference opponents on the way to a No. 1 seed. All the Terrapins have to do in 2019-20 is keep everything the same as it was last season -- with the glaring and critical exception of turnovers. Taking care of the ball and generating even an average number of takeaways would give Anthony Cowan, Jalen Smith and their mates their best shot at cutting down the nets in Atlanta.
8. Gonzaga Bulldogs
It's a tribute to what Gonzaga has been able to accomplish as a program that Mark Few can lose four starters from an Elite Eight team and still be ranked in the top 10 the following preseason. Moreover, it looks to be an accurate ranking. Somehow, the Bulldogs are loaded again. With Corey Kispert, Filip Petrusev, transfers Admon Gilder (Texas A&M) and Ryan Woolridge (North Texas), freshmen Anton Watson and Drew Timme and, at some point, a healthy Killian Tillie, the Zags have the personnel to compete with any team nationally. This new-look rotation will have to learn how to play together on the fly, however, just as Brandon Clarke did so suddenly and dramatically a season ago.
9. North Carolina Tar Heels
For North Carolina to win a second national title in the span of just four years, Cole Anthony will have to live up to his billing. The freshman appears to be well on his way to doing so, after reportedly scoring 28 points in the Tar Heels' preseason scrimmage against Villanova. Anthony won't have to be a one-man show, of course, and Garrison Brooks, Leaky Black and freshman Armando Bacot will all have to be heard from if Roy Williams' team is to truly make a run at the title. Nevertheless, Anthony is being projected as the No. 4 overall pick in next summer's NBA draft. With that level of talent, the 6-foot-3 scorer has the potential to make his voice heard in March and April.
10. Villanova Wildcats
Villanova will have to be more than the sum of its parts to win it all in 2020. That is by no means a knock on Collin Gillespie, Saddiq Bey, Jeremiah Robinson-Earl or Jermaine Samuels. Actually, Jay Wright showed precisely this ability with his national title teams in 2016 and 2018. Brimming with NBA-bound talent as they were, those teams still overperformed relative to their personnel. Competing blue-chip teams had even more NBA-bound talent, but the Wildcats prevailed. To achieve that same kind of result this season, 'Nova will need better defense. Last season the Wildcats allowed Big East opponents to score 1.04 points per possession. That was better than average but not as good as what Marquette or Providence were doing in conference play.