The 2019-20 season has arrived, and with it, eight "elite" thoughts on the coming year:
1. The season-opening bracket typically features changes that are a bit more substantial than what occurs in our spring and summer updates. How is that, you ask, when no games have been played?
One answer is that the results of league-by-league coaches' polls are rolled into the rankings formula, along with bits and pieces of injury news or exceptional player progress reports. The main example of the former is a shift back to Duke and Kentucky as No. 1 seeds, replacing our preference of Louisville and Florida.
Who should know best at this point in time? If the ACC and SEC coaches have distinct opinions, we'll go with that until proven otherwise. Plus, it's just plain fun to pit our evaluations against theirs for a couple of weeks. We'll let you decide who's better over time.
2. Other changes can come from what we call our "conference balance" review. Even though it's certainly true that conference affiliations are not selection criteria for the committee, that is a "micro" principle.
In a "macro" sense it's hard to justify, for example, the summer or fall projection of eight Big Ten bids in contrast to just six from the ACC. Hence the entry of Notre Dame into our latest projection as Penn State drops out.
We would never adopt such logic once the games begin, as actual results always trump any hypotheticals. But it can be useful to remind ourselves that every team starts the season 0-0.
3. While the Big East coaches' poll placed Seton Hall in the league's top spot, our model still gives a slight edge to Villanova. It's not an unreasonable forecast given that the Wildcats have won the league outright in five of six seasons since conference realignment (and all they managed in the "off" year was another national championship).
Someday, history will record Villanova's recent five-year run (2014-18) as one of the greatest in the sport's history. Think about two NCAA titles, three No. 1 seeds and two No. 2 seeds in half a decade, and that along the way, the Wildcats never -- N-E-V-E-R -- lost back-to-back games.
4. The Texas Tech folks were less than pleased when we characterized their nonconference schedule as "ugly." After all, the Red Raiders face Louisville (neutral) in December and Kentucky (home) in January. Do those contests, along with additional dates versus Iowa (neutral) and DePaul (away), make up for eight cupcakes in the first 11 games? We shall see.
In the meantime, it's fair to say Tech won't equal NC State from last season with the worst nonconference schedule (No. 353) in the country. But if (when?) the Red Raiders land around, say, No. 253 in that category, you heard it here first.
5. Teams I wish weren't in the bracket despite what the preseason numbers say: Creighton, Notre Dame, USC, Alabama.
6. Teams I wish were in the bracket despite what the preseason numbers say: Iowa State, Ole Miss, Penn State, Arizona State.
7. Teams that could get there but no one is talking about: Georgia, Missouri, Wichita State, BYU.
8. Finally, please welcome Merrimack to the Division I ranks. The Warriors come to us from Andover, Massachusetts, and will play in the Northeast Conference. Their reclassification from Division II extends until the 2023-24 season.
Leaving the ranks of Division I is Savannah State, which posted only three winning records in 17 Division I seasons.