The 2019 version of Loyola-Chicago is out there, lurking.
Well, maybe there isn't a first-round Giant Killer that will make it to the Final Four like the Ramblers did. But somewhere, there's a double-digit seed that's going to be busting up Tournament Challenge brackets -- and we're on the hunt for it.
For the unfamiliar, this space has long been devoted to finding dangerous Giant Killers -- teams that are at least five seed lines below their opponents -- and vulnerable Giants through quantitative analysis.
A year ago, we revamped our Giant Killers model, which now uses BPI ratings as a base and makes adjustments specific to every matchup based on each team's strengths and weaknesses in advanced box score statistics. That, combined with our BPI projections that determine which teams will make the tournament and where they will be seeded come selection day (which can be very different from where they would be seeded today), has us armed and ready to look for the next batch of Giant Killer candidates.
Today we're focusing on potential first-round Giant Killers -- 11-seeds or worse, in other words -- but before we do that, we think it's only fitting to start with the king of them all: the Ramblers. Can Loyola-Chicago repeat as the ultimate Giant Killer?
Half the battle for the Ramblers is going to be getting into the tournament in the first place to try to defend their crown as the ultimate Giant Killers. BPI gives them a 35 percent chance, thanks to their being the best team in the Missouri Valley, but they'd be foolish to overlook their conference tournament as anything other than a challenge.
If they get in, BPI projects the Ramblers to be a 13- or 14-seed, meaning they will probably have a tougher first-round opponent than the Miami team they faced last year. Best reasonable scenario for the Ramblers? A first-round date with Buffalo, against whom Loyola-Chicago would have a 23 percent shot to win, per our model. Every other team projected to earn in the ballpark of a No. 4 seed would be more difficult than that.
Although the Ramblers' key contributors this season are returnees from last year's incredible run -- center Cameron Krutwig and guards Marques Townes and Clayton Custer -- this team ranks only 101st in BPI, a far cry from the No. 50 rank it had entering last year's tournament. This year's squad shoots well from inside the arc (56 percent, 13th in Division I) and has the best defensive rebounding rate ... but the second-worst offensive rebounding rate. The 2018-19 Ramblers looked a lot better just a week ago before a 19-point loss to Evansville.
Bottom line: Loyola-Chicago will face fairly long odds to cause another first-round upset. The Ramblers won't make it to the second weekend this time.
South Dakota State Jackrabbits
The Jackrabbits have a more than a 50 percent shot to win the Summit Conference tournament and get into March Madness, so it's certainly worth paying attention to them ahead of the spring.
Keep in mind come bracket-filling time that they're a fun team to root for with their high-efficiency 3-point shooting. Forty-two percent of Jackrabbit 3s fall through the hoop, the fifth-best rate in Division I. Guard David Jenkins is leading the way in that department, knocking down 49.6 percent of his 3-pointers so far this season.
But it isn't only from beyond the arc that SDSU is effective: It has the fifth-best effective field goal rate in Division I and is one of the better defensive rebounding teams in the country. Both strengths are thanks in part to forward Mike Daum, who is averaging a double-double.
BPI projects South Dakota State to earn a No. 11 seed, and our Giant Killers model gives the Jackrabbits a 35 percent chance to beat Marquette, a projected No. 6 seed.
Dayton has a trickier path to the tournament than some of these other teams because of competition from teams such as VCU in its conference. But if they can earn a berth, the Flyers might be the best team in this group.
Like South Dakota State, the Flyers are efficient in scoring from the field, but they go about it a completely different way. No team scores a higher percentage of its points in the paint than Dayton, which is a large part of the reason Dayton has the second-best 2-point field goal percentage in Div. I, after Gonzaga. Senior forward Josh Cunningham is shooting 66.1 percent from inside the arc, and freshman forward Obadiah Toppin is at 68.3 percent.
Dayton, projected to earn a No. 11 seed, would have a 37 percent chance against Marquette.
I know what you're thinking: Is this the NIT Giant Killers article?
It's hard to fathom Northwestern -- with a 10-7 record and a quality win over ... Georgia Tech? -- making the NCAA tournament. I know because I stared at the numbers, wondering how our projections could suggest that the Wildcats have a decent chance. But it was no error. BPI says Northwestern could go dancing and be a threatening Giant Killer, should it get in.
It comes down to three factors:
1. The results haven't been there, but Northwestern is playing like a (relatively) quality team. Its opponent-adjusted efficiency is 55th in Division I, and BPI thinks the Wildcats will be a little better than that (48th) going forward.
2. There are plenty of potential quality wins remaining on the schedule, as well as a slew of coin-flip games. If things break just a little in Northwestern's favor, the Wildcats will have a decent record ahead of the Big Ten tournament.
3. As a likely double-digit seed in the Big Ten tournament, Northwestern can grab an easy first-round win and have a pretty good shot (because we think it is better than its record) of picking up a second conference tournament win. If that happens and a few games go their way before that, the Wildcats could earn an at-large bid.
If Northwestern does get in, the Wildcats will be a sneaky tough out in the NCAA tournament. Despite their record, BPI indicates that they are the best team mentioned in this story. Northwestern excels at preventing opponents from scoring from long range, holding teams to the 15th-lowest 3-point field goal percentage and the fourth-lowest percentage of points from 3.
Although BPI suggests that Northwestern is better than Dayton in general, our Giant Killers model would give the Wildcats a slightly worse chance (36 percent) to beat Marquette in a possible 11-6 matchup.
Mackenzie Kraemer contributed to this article.