It's time to get back to basics.
We've had some fun exploring seesaw teams and Giant-Killing star players in recent weeks, but now, a few weeks ahead of Selection Sunday, it's time to do what we do best: identify some of the most threatening Giant Killers out there.
For this exercise, we'll operate as if the tournament were kicking off today and base the seeds on Joe Lunardi's latest Bracketology. But to broaden the view of these Giant Killers just a little bit, we'll be using our matchup-based model to consider a potential underdog's chance to win against all four opponents from the Giant seed line that said team would be facing.
And to keep things semi-fair, we'll split teams into groups by seed. Rules understood? Let's go.
Group 1: Second-round Giant Killers (seeds 7-10)
No. 9 Saint Mary's Gaels
We gave plenty of pub to star center Jock Landale last week, but as a team, Saint Mary's will absolutely be a threat to the tournament's stalwarts next month and therefore can't be ignored. Landale and fellow Australian teammate Emmett Naar combine as a dangerous pick-and-roll option for the Gaels and are the key reason why Saint Mary's has the eighth-most efficient opponent-adjusted offense this season.
Against the four current Bracketology No. 1 seeds, the Gaels have more than a 27 percent chance to win against all of them except Villanova, per our Giant Killers model. Among the current No. 1s, Kansas would be the best matchup for Saint Mary's, as the Gaels would hold an edge on the boards and in the efficiency of their shots. With all other factors being equal (game location, rest differential, etc.) Saint Mary's would have a 35 percent chance to beat the Jayhawks, our model says.
The Gaels are not without their faults. While the aforementioned tandem of Naar and Landale is fierce, Saint Mary's is reliant upon the duo's success. The Gaels lost by 13 at home to Gonzaga earlier this month when Landale was double-teamed and Naar went 2-of-9 from the field. That came before a more surprising loss at San Francisco, prompting coach Randy Bennett to bring up concerns about the team's scoring without Landale on the floor.
Side note: No. 9 Nevada also would have been included here, but we wrote about the Wolf Pack recently.
No. 8 Florida State Seminoles
The Seminoles have hung around the periphery of the AP top 25 throughout the season but haven't really exploded into the public eye at any point this year. Maybe their peak will come the first weekend in March.
The Seminoles' edge is their height, which ranks 14th in Division on a minute-weighted basis, per KenPom. Unsurprisingly given that fact, Florida State's strength lies in its offensive rebounding and 2-point offense and defense. And some of that height hasn't even been on the floor all season: 7-4 junior center Christ Koumadje missed 11 games with a foot injury but has been the Seminoles' second-most valuable player on a per-minute basis according to our opponent-adjusted win shares metric (though he only averages just over 18 minutes played per game). Offensively, the team is led by junior slasher Terance Mann.
Per our Giant Killers model, Florida State isn't significantly helped or hurt by the matchups against the four No. 1 seeds, but is boosted by its base BPI strength (Florida State ranks 29th). That's enough to give the Seminoles a fighting chance against Kansas (27 percent), Xavier (26 percent) and Virginia (23 percent), though they would remain very long shots (12 percent) against Villanova.
Group 2: First-round Giant Killers (seeds 11-13)
No. 12 Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
Thanks to having the 38th most efficient offense in Division I, the Ragin' Cajuns have won 13 of their past 14 games, with a road game at Troy on Wednesday -- their toughest remaining game of the regular season, per BPI. Louisiana's offense is partially fueled by its aggression on the offensive boards, where they rack up rebounds at the eighth-best rate in the country.
That rebounding -- which on both ends of the court is led by senior forward Bryce Washington -- is a big reason why our Giant Killers model would actually make Louisiana a slight favorite (59 percent) against Rhode Island if the two teams were to meet in the first round (assuming equal distance traveled and equal rest) of the NCAA tournament.
Though West Virginia is one of the few teams in the country that actually would have an offensive rebounding advantage over Louisiana, the Ragin' Cajuns still have a plus-19 percent GK factor (that's the matchup-based credit or debit a team receives on top of its standard BPI chance to win) due to more efficient shooting from the field and the stripe. As a result, the Mountaineers would have only a 58 percent chance to beat Louisiana, while Michigan (59 percent) and Gonzaga (74 percent) would hold a slightly stronger advantage.
No. 12 Texas Longhorns
On one hand: It isn't great that the only team Texas had beaten in February is free-falling Oklahoma.
On the other: The Longhorns have Mo Bamba. And this pick is all about Bamba.
Surely, for any No. 5 seed out there, Bamba is just about the last person they would hope to see defending the clip they're shooting at. The future early lottery pick is the critical component behind Texas' shutdown defense (sixth-most efficient), and that has to scare future tournament opponents.
Texas has a positive GK factor against all four potential No. 5 seeds (Rhode Island, Michigan, West Virginia and Gonzaga) and would have a 47 percent and 58 percent chance to beat Michigan and Rhode Island, respectively. Their recent cold streak means the Longhorns aren't assured a tournament bid, but they ought to get there.
Group 3: Long shot first-round Giant Killers (seeds 14-16)
No. 14 Belmont Bruins
There's no team from this group that's going to put a scare into a title contender the way that a middle seed would, but we all know upsets can and will happen from the bottom rungs of the tournament. And if anyone were to shake things up right now from this low of a seed, it would be the Bruins.
Belmont has won 11 of its past 12 games and currently ranks 78th in BPI. Its most productive player is junior swingman Dylan Windler, who dropped 36 points and recorded 20 rebounds against Morehead State on Saturday. Granted, the Eagles aren't the stiffest of competition, but those numbers are eye-opening and Windler does lead the Bruins in opponent-adjusted win shares this season.
Keep in mind, however, that Belmont will have to win the Ohio Valley Conference tournament, which ought to come down to the Bruins and Murray State.