Welcome to the latest installment of Giant Killers, where we endeavor to discover underrated teams primed to upset opponents seeded at least five lines higher in the NCAA tournament.
A few weeks ago, I nominated my preseason choices for Giant Killers to watch. I highlighted four teams (Charleston, San Diego State, St. Bonaventure and UCF) and a portion of an entire league (the Ivy) that could bust a high number of brackets come March.
Now, with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight on the first two weeks of the season, I have three additional nominations to put in front of you:
Vermont is five points away from receiving votes in the AP Top 25. On the season's opening weekend, the Catamounts lost to Kentucky at Rupp Arena 73-69. At the time, everyone drew the conclusion that John Calipari had been correct to moan all throughout the preseason about how young and inexperienced his latest young and inexperienced team really was.
Then again, maybe we should have been paying attention to that visiting team, as well. John Becker's bunch has won five straight since that loss to the Wildcats, including neutral-floor victories against Bradley and Northern Kentucky and, most impressively, a true road win at Yale. For a second consecutive season, this offense revolves around the one-two punch of Anthony Lamb and Trae Bell-Haynes. It worked last season (Vermont went 29-6 and hung with Purdue for the better part of 40 minutes in the round of 64), and it's clicking again, so far, in 2017-18. You'll hear the Catamounts' name on the losing end of some scores sooner rather than later -- Becker's guys are one game into a rather masochistic five-game road swing -- but don't count them out.
UT Arlington Mavericks
UT Arlington already had a 14-point win at BYU in its back pocket when the Mavericks lost a 77-76 heartbreaker to Alabama in Tuscaloosa last week. Crimson Tide coach Avery Johnson won't care if he never again sees Kevin Hervey (who hit 4 of 5 3s against Bama) or Erick Neal (4-of-6 beyond the arc). Scott Cross has a rotation that has been lighting it up from outside, draining 44 percent of its 3s thus far on the season.
Not that the Mavericks are just a hot-shooting flash in the pan, mind you. The one starter who has yet to attempt a 3 in his career, 7-foot senior Johnny Hamilton, only happens to be drawing six fouls per 40 minutes, shooting 77 percent at the line and converting 72 percent of his 2s. Turnovers have been a recurring problem so far, but if the Mavericks can manage simply to hold on to the ball, they have the size and the shooting chops to make life difficult for a major-conference favorite in the round of 64.
Now that Caleb Martin has jumped from the Wolfpack (NC State) to the Wolf Pack (Nevada), he has given Eric Musselman's team a big lift. The 6-foot-7 junior has started the season on fire from both sides of the arc while functioning as a co-featured scorer alongside Jordan Caroline. Twin brother Cody Martin (another 6-foot-7 veteran of the Mark Gottfried era in Raleigh) is leading the team in minutes and has provided big contributions in rim defense and takeaways.
Even in the preseason, a glance at the schedule suggested Nevada would have some excellent early-season chances to record quality wins. Well, that's exactly what has happened. The Wolf Pack have posted home victories against two highly respectable opponents from the Atlantic 10 -- Rhode Island and Davidson. This team was picked in the preseason to win the Mountain West, and nothing we've seen thus far from Musselman's group would alter that expectation.
But what about the first set of Giant Killers? Charleston hasn't yet looked like a group that has all five starters from a team that went 14-4 in the CAA last season. The Cougars needed overtime to escape Siena at home in their season opener, and Earl Grant's team went on to lose at Wichita State (expected) and on a neutral floor to Cal Poly (unexpected).
San Diego State wandered into the path of a buzz saw called the early-season Arizona State offense (ask Xavier about the Sun Devils), but otherwise the Aztecs have more or less performed to expectations.
St. Bonaventure was hoisted by its own Giant Killing petard in its season opener, losing at home to Niagara 77-75. The Bonnies did round into form nicely and defeated Maryland by two on a neutral floor two weeks later.
UCF was last seen scoring just 43 points in 69 possessions in a three-point loss to St. John's in nearby Kissimmee, Florida. This was the same venue where the Knights did -- it's true -- defeat Nebraska three nights earlier, but Johnny Dawkins' men will need to shoot better than 22 percent on their 3s (their rate of accuracy thus far this season) to live up to the Giant Killer label.
The early season has been especially cruel to the Ivies. Yale, Princeton and Harvard are a combined 7-10, and although seven of those losses came in true road games, the results have nevertheless been disappointing. The Bulldogs in particular have been hampered by losing Makai Mason for the time being (to a stress fracture in his foot) and Jordan Bruner for the season (to a torn meniscus).