As it becomes clearer which teams will land top slots in the NCAA tournament, which of the Giants are safest? Well, that's a relative question, because when we assess the vulnerability of highly ranked teams, sometimes we find that the results from our statistical model offset mis-seedings. For example, Kansas is heading for a 1-seed, according to Joe Lunardi's latest projections, even though the Jayhawks rank just 10th in BPI. But Kansas shares many of the same statistical traits with successful overdogs in the past and ranks as the fourth-safest Giant, according to our model. So Kansas really is as upset-proof as a typical top seed. On the other hand, Duke ranks eighth in BPI but has just the 17th-highest Giant Rating -- appropriate for the 4-seed the Blue Devils look likely to land.
In a few cases, however, our analysis rates teams as stronger than either their BPI or their projected seeds indicate. These are the Goliaths who are safer than they look, both from traditional and standard analytical viewpoints. In other words, these are the Giants who can make chalk pay.
West Virginia Mountaineers
Lunardi's projected seed: 3
Giant Rating: 99.1, meaning an estimated 99.1 percent chance of beating an average NCAA tournament Killer, ranking first
Lacking a superstar shooter, West Virginia probably will continue to have games where it struggles to put away top-notch opponents, and Monday's meltdown against Kansas was hideous. But WVU is a possession-building machine, combining offensive boards with defensive turnovers better than any team in the 10-year history of our spreadsheets. We broke down their numbers and tendencies, and the data hasn't changed much. Assuming the Mountaineers' eight-minute collapse against the Jayhawks is an anomaly and not the start of some serious breakdown of West Virginia's much-improved ballhandling, our statistical model still sees them as ultra-safe against underdogs.
North Carolina Tar Heels
Lunardi's projected seed: 2
Giant Rating: 97.0, ranking second
We have made this statement before, but it bears repeating: The most important thing a Giant can do to ward off potential Killers is to seize offensive rebounds. Life can be pretty simple -- if you keep giving yourself second chances, you will smother an underdog's hope to catch breaks or catch fire. And North Carolina hits the offensive glass better than any team in the country, grabbing a whopping 42.1 percent of its own missed shots. Down the road, the Tar Heels might be an even tougher out in the NCAA tournament than most folks expect, because they've mixed long-range shooting into their attack this season. But their basic formula of dominating inside is enough to squelch inferior opponents. Fun fact: Since January, senior Kennedy Meeks and freshman Tony Bradley, the big men UNC platoons at center, have 48 offensive rebounds, or 7.6 per 40 minutes of play, in games against teams not likely to make the top half of NCAA brackets. North Carolina ranks seventh in BPI but is the second-safest likely Giant, according to our model. They haven't lost to a Killer in the tournament since George Mason in 2006.
Kentucky Wildcats
Lunardi's projected seed: 3
Giant Rating: 95.3, ranking fifth
Three losses in four games sent Wildcats fans into a tailspin at the beginning of this month, and coach John Calipari played his ruefulness to the hilt, saying, "Maybe we've hit bottom, and maybe we haven't." So buy low. There probably was never any need to panic -- a flu bug had hit half of Kentucky's roster, and anyone could lose to Kansas and Florida. But particularly from a Giant Killers perspective, Calipari's crew is still primed for a deep NCAA tournament run. Four Wildcats regulars are shooting better than 55 percent from inside, and with few turnovers and top-30 offensive rebounding, Kentucky is scoring 119.6 adjusted points per possession, the seventh-highest rate in the country. They allow opponents to shoot just 32 percent on 3s (ranking 43rd). And they play very fast, averaging 74.1 possessions per game, 13th-most in the NCAA. So they just run away from the kinds of teams they are likely to see early in the tournament. On their way to attempting 71 field goals, amassing 21 offensive rebounds and forcing 19 turnovers against Valparaiso in December, the Wildcats led 23-4 after 10 minutes of play. That's what Kentucky can do to a Killer.
Cincinnati Bearcats
Lunardi's projected seed: 5
Giant Rating: 91.8, ranking 14th
The NCAA selection committee didn't see the Bearcats as worthy of a top-four seed last weekend, but BPI (where they rank 16th) disagrees, and so does our model. Cincinnati is a Gambling Giant, pressuring the perimeter to create lots of turnovers (steals on 11.2 percent of opponent possessions, ranking 26th in the country), with tremendous interior defense, limiting foes to shooting just 39.6 percent on 2-point FGs, the second-lowest rate in the nation. The Bearcats also are highly efficient on offense, surrendering the ball on just 15.6 percent of their own possessions (ranking 13th) and nabbing 34.9 percent of their missed shots (ranking 29th). Add up the impact of their similarities to past Goliaths, and Cincinnati's chances of beating an average NCAA tournament underdog are 17 percentage points greater than a typical 5-seed.
South Carolina Gamecocks
Lunardi's projected seed: 6
Giant Rating: 91.8, ranking 16th
A 6-seed might seem generous for the Gamecocks, who rank just 41st in BPI. But South Carolina's strengths are particularly and hugely useful to Giants. Coach Frank Martin's defenses are always intense, but this USC squad is playing his style more efficiently than any team he has ever coached: They are spacing the perimeter with a relentless focus on disrupting passing lanes, which forces opponents into turnovers (24.9 percent of possessions, fourth-most in the nation), poor shots from outside (27.7 percent on 3s, lowest in the country) or harried buzzer-beaters from inside (just 44.4 percent on 2-point FGA). The result: South Carolina is giving up only 86.3 adjusted points per 100 possessions, the fewest in the country. And their scheme positions the Gamecocks for so many offensive rebounds (34.5 percent of missed shots, ranking 35th) that they are above average in offensive efficiency despite being a poor shooting team. Overall, we estimate that South Carolina's statistical profile would add 9.6 points per 100 possessions to their performance against an average NCAA tournament underdog, second-most for any Giant, behind West Virginia. This team is going to be one nasty surprise for a would-be Killer, especially one looking to shoot from long range.
Thanks to Liz Bouzarth, John Harris and Kevin Hutson of Furman University for research assistance.