On Feb. 14, 2015, it finally happened. Stephen F. Austin, the pre-eminent program in the Southland Conference, lost its first and only conference game in two years when Texas A&M-Corpus Christi's Ehab Amin and Rashawn Thomas combined to score 42 points.
There's little reason to believe that the rest of the conference will catch Stephen F. and the Austins this season, especially with a more balanced squad and the return of Thomas Walkup, the reigning Southland Player of the Year and conference tournament MVP.
But, at Northwestern State, Jalan West and Zeek Woodley combined to average 42.2 points per game last season, and they're back for a Demons team that had an allergy to defense but put up more points per game than any team in America (84.1 PPG). Thomas, one of the heroes in Texas A&M-Corpus Christi's win and an all-Southland second-teamer, returns too.
Sam Houston lost all-Southland second-teamer Jabari Peters and a trio of third-team members -- Kaheem Ransom, Michael Holyfield and DeMarcus Gatlin -- after a 15-3 finish in league play. Incarnate Word star Denzel Livingston is gone as well.
So let the chase in the Southland begin. If you look ahead, you'll see Stephen F. Austin trotting about 100 meters in front of the pack.
Favorite
In two Southland Conference tourney games at the conclusion of the 2014-15 season, Stephen F. Austin won by an average of 12.5 points. Their two opponents in those games, Northwestern State in the semis and Sam Houston in the championship, finished second and third, respectively, in the Southland's regular-season standings. Stephen F. Austin secured 15 of its 17 conference wins by double digits. The Lumberjacks were nearly untouchable with the exception of that bizarre loss to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi. Walkup, who averaged 15.6 points and 6.5 rebounds per game, will join sophomore Ty Charles to lead a squad that must push ahead without former standout Jacob Parker. The Lumberjacks should be heavy favorites to win the conference title again, especially if 7-foot freshmen Jovan Grujic and Lasani Johnson, son of former NBA star Larry Johnson, live up to the hype.
Sleeper
Defense wins championships, they say. Well, if Northwestern State can manufacture a mediocre stand each night on that end of the floor -- the Demons finished 350th in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.com -- it might shake up the league and compete for the Southland title. West and Woodley were the top-scoring duo in college basketball last year. The Demons' high-powered offense registered as one of its most efficient units, too (37th, per KenPom.com). They were just absentee defenders all year. That has to change.
Team that could fall on its face
Sam Houston State won 26 games and had a strong year. But its top three scorers from 2014-15 graduated. That leaves Dakarai Henderson (9.0 PPG), Paul Baxter (8.4 PPG) and Aurimas Majauskas (8.1 PPG) to handle the scoring responsibilities for a squad that lost more than 52 percent of its offense and a top-50 defense that's now missing Holyfield's 6-foot-11 frame. There's certainly a chance that Sam Houston's work on the offensive glass will continue (27th in offensive rebounding rate), its defense will remain stingy and its returning scorers will help coach Jason Hooten's program reconvene and make a run at the Southland title. Then again, they've lost so much, a tumble down the standings seems equally likely.
Top pro prospect
Grujic, Stephen F. Austin
Grujic, the 7-footer from Serbia who could make a major contribution at Stephen F. Austin this season, drew interest from power conference schools prior to signing with the Lumberjacks. He's raw and thin, but with coach Brad Underwood's help, he could develop into a prospect. He has some range and he averaged 2.0 blocks per game at South Kent High School (South Kent, Connecticut). It will take some time for Grujic to enhance his body and reach his potential, but he has the size, tools and experience (he played for Serbia's U19 squad) to blossom in the coming years.
Projected all-conference team
G: Ty Charles, Stephen F. Austin
G: Zay Jackson, Southeastern Louisiana Lions
G: Zeek Woodley, Northwestern State
F: Thomas Walkup, Stephen F. Austin
F: Rashawn Thomas, Texas A&M-Corpus Christi Islanders