Well, this is familiar.
Another year with a stacked Big 12 -- albeit one with slightly less depth than a year ago -- and a foursome of Brutuses (Iowa State, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Baylor) all aiming for Caesar (Kansas). The most significant storyline of the season, the one that will linger through March, is Kansas' pursuit of its 12th consecutive Big 12 championship. The Jayhawks' run is a remarkable stretch that still hasn't garnered adequate adoration.
Kansas will aim high in 2015-16, especially if Cheick Diallo, the No. 7 prospect in the 2015 class per RecruitingNation, gains clearance from the NCAA. The Jayhawks, with the help of SMU's Nic Moore, played well during their gold-medal run in the World University Games over the summer.
But Iowa State, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Baylor will all push the Jayhawks. All four could crack the top-25 preseason rankings, which leads to a second notable narrative in the Big 12: Will this league finally turn its potential into postseason glory?
Last year, seven teams represented the league in the Big Dance, and all seven teams missed the Final Four. Only Oklahoma and West Virginia advanced to the Sweet 16. The conference's 70 percent berth rate topped all leagues, but its early departures lengthened the Big 12's succession of years that ended without a Final Four participant (it has been since Kansas beat Ohio State and lost to Kentucky in the 2012 national title game). That could change this season.
Favorite
Diallo's situation matters because the likely lottery pick would give Bill Self the perfect complement to Perry Ellis' hybrid game. Diallo's a shot-blocker and the perfect component around the rim. But the Jayhawks should still be favored without him.
Still, this isn't a Kansas (and everyone else) season, even if the Jayhawks have a complete roster. Steve Prohm's Iowa State squad will be led by Wooden Award contender Georges Niang, Jameel McKay's all-universe defense and Monte Morris' gifts off the dribble. Juwan Staten is gone at West Virginia, but a Devin Williams-led reboot in Morgantown ain't nothin' to joke about. Baylor is a promising unit, and Oklahoma returns most of its standouts from last season, including Buddy Hield, a likely preseason All-American. But no team matches Kansas' depth and talent. Frank Mason III, Landen Lucas, Wayne Selden, Ellis, Diallo (maybe) and more. The Jayhawks could, should, secure their 12th consecutive Big 12 crown.
Sleeper
Iowa State and Oklahoma could start the season as top-10 squads. Even Baylor will enter the year as a top-25ish squad. Those aren't real sleepers. West Virginia reached the Sweet 16 last season. Would anyone be surprised if the Mountaineers succeeded again? Not really.
But Texas? Yeah, let's go with that. Think about it. At VCU, Shaka Smart engineered the most successful turnover-forcing unit in America in the 2013-14 season. Most years, the "HAVOC" was real. He did it with Briante Weber, the best on-the-ball defender in America for the past four years, and a fleet of tenacious guards who stuck to his ploys. In Austin, Smart has Isaiah Taylor and a multitude of lengthy, athletic guards who should create similar pressure for a Longhorns squad that finished 350th in defensive turnover rate last year. That style -- and a retooled offense led by those same north-south wings -- could help the Longhorns rise to the top of the league.
Team that could fall on its face
Oklahoma State hasn't missed the NCAA tournament since 2012. But the Cowboys lost Le'Bryan Nash, Anthony Hickey and Michael Cobbins. That's nearly 34 points per game on a team that finished sixth in adjusted offensive efficiency in the Big 12, per KenPom. How will the Cowboys score? Phil Forte will move into more of an off-the-ball role as he tries to add to his career tally of 238 three-pointers. Incoming point guard Jawun Evans is a McDonald's All American with grand expectations and responsibilities on his shoulders. But he doesn't feel more pressure than coach Travis Ford, who could be entering a critical season for his career. That's a heavy burden for that entire program. And the Cowboys lack the talent, it seems, to handle what's coming.
Top pro prospect
Diallo, Kansas
The 6-foot-9, 225-pounder from Our Savior New American School in Centereach, New York, is a lottery pick on every meaningful draft board. He has the length, on-court ambition and tools to excel at the next level. Academic issues, however, could cost him all or part of an opportunity to showcase those abilities for pro scouts this season. Even in that worst-case scenario, Diallo would still enter the 2016 draft as a top prospect. Adam Silver might call Baylor's Taurean Prince and Oklahoma's Buddy Hield to the stage, too. But Diallo has the highest ceiling and draft stock in the league.
Projected all-conference team
G: Buddy Hield, Oklahoma
G: Isaiah Taylor, Texas
F: Georges Niang, Iowa State
F: Taurean Prince, Baylor
F: Perry Ellis, Kansas