The fall of 2015 should have found the Southern Methodist men's basketball program in a triumphant mood. After all, March marked the Mustangs' first NCAA tournament appearance, first regular-season conference title and first conference tournament championship in more than two decades. Even 2014-15's dreadful finish could be spun cheerily: Here was SMU, a No. 5 seed, utterly devastated by its first-round tourney loss to UCLA. When's the last time that sentence made sense?
Much of that team would return for 2015-16. The Mustangs would enter their fourth season under wizened tactical genius Larry Brown ranked in the top 25 and favored to repeat as American Athletic Conference champs. Life was good.
Then came September. Following an NCAA investigation into guard Keith Frazier's academic eligibility (or lack thereof), the Mustangs were banned from the 2015-16 postseason. Citing a lack of control, the NCAA suspended Brown nine games.
Just like that, SMU's players were robbed of the chance to avenge last season's early NCAA tournament exit. Mustangs fans found a seminal moment in program history rendered hollow. And the rest of the American Athletic Conference saw its conventional favorite drained of any automatic-bid impact -- left with nothing to play for but pride.
Favorite
Connecticut knows a thing or two about SMU's situation. Kevin Ollie's first season presented him with the task of not only credibly succeeding Jim Calhoun but imploring his team to work despite its own academic-induced postseason ban. A year later, the Huskies were national champs.
There's a similar feel to the 2015-16 Huskies. Yes, last season was a flop. But Ollie has revitalized his roster with new faces (transfers Sterling Gibbs and Shonn Miller, freshman Jalen Adams), while returners Rodney Purvis, Daniel Hamilton and Amida Brimah still have untapped potential. Huskies fans see a top-10 team, but UConn will have to prove it first. At the very least, the ceiling is high enough to warrant provisional favorite status -- ahead of Tulsa (which returns five senior starters) and Cincinnati.
Sleeper
After a season spent away from the daily stressors of the game -- doctor's orders -- Mick Cronin returns to full-time coaching duties at Fifth Third Arena, where he will oversee one of the nation's toughest and most egregiously slept-on rosters.
Granted, Cincy's grindhouse style doesn't make great television. But this team already featured one of the nation's best per-possession defenses a year ago, and it has five starters -- including lead guard Troy Caupain and relentless forward Octavius Ellis -- returning. The longer you look at the Bearcats, the more you wonder why you've heard so little about them all summer.
Team that could fall on its face
The past year was almost certainly the worst of Josh Pastner's six at Memphis: The Tigers finished 18-14 and lost five transfers along the way. The most crucial of these farewells -- forward Austin Nichols, who left for Virginia in July -- was also the ugliest, ending only after legal threats and public scorn.
Perhaps Memphis can recover from the departures, integrate a talented mix of returners and recruits, and engineer a quick year-over-year turnaround. It's possible. It just doesn't feel super likely. And with local patience waning, the pressure on Pastner and his players will be more stifling than ever.
Top pro prospect
Amida Brimah, UConn
The NBA may be living in a post-Golden State Warriors world, where positions are just numbers and height is a secondary concern, but scouts and general managers will always love a 7-foot center with a 7-foot-6 wingspan who blocks 15 percent of the shots that come his way. They'll love him enough, in fact, that they'll be willing to forgive the relative rawness of other aspects of his game so long as he continues to improve. UConn's big man may not be a lottery pick, but the American isn't chock-full of obvious NBA talent, and Brimah definitely has the NBA's attention.
Projected all-conference team
G: Nic Moore, SMU
G: Sterling Gibbs, UConn
G: James Woodard, Tulsa
F: Octavius Ellis, Cincinnati
F: Markus Kennedy, SMU