Change is in the air in the Horizon League. Northern Kentucky has joined the league as a 10th member, and in March the conference's members will gather in Detroit to hold the Horizon League's first neutral-site tournament since 2002.
This same spirit of change is evident at Green Bay, where the Phoenix have said goodbye to three starters (including two-time Horizon Player of the Year Keifer Sykes) and hello to new head coach Linc Darner. Also joining the Horizon's coaching ranks this season is Illinois-Chicago's Steve McClain. The former Indiana assistant will seek to strenghthen a defense that allowed a remarkable 1.13 points per trip in league play last season.
Meanwhile, Wright State head coach Billy Donlon simply wants to transition toward health after an injury-plagued 2014-15. And at Detroit, Ray McCallum will endeavor to improve a foul-prone defense that permitted conference opponents to shoot a whopping 54 percent inside the arc last season.
Change will indeed be plain to see everywhere in the Horizon this season, except at the top of the standings. Defending champion Valparaiso looks even stronger in 2015-16.
Favorite
Coach Bryce Drew's main challenge will be juggling minutes. Everyone returns from last season's NCAA tournament team, including first-team All-Horizon selection Alec Peters, and defensive player of the year Vashil Fernandez (granted another season of eligibility by the NCAA). Former starter Lexus Williams is also back after sitting out 2014-15 with an injury, and LSU transfer Shane Hammink is now eligible to play. Lastly, just to be on the safe side, Drew has added 7-foot-1 freshman Derrik Smits (son of Rik). On paper, this is the best team the Horizon's seen since Butler in 2010-11.
Sleeper
The Grizzlies posted a perfect record at home in conference play in 2014-15 en route to a respectable 11-5 mark, and this season coach Greg Kampe brings back Kahlil Felder and two other starters. The indefatigable Felder, a 5-foot-9 point guard, led the nation in percentage of minutes played last season (95.7, per KenPom). The Golden Grizzlies also welcome three transfers from the Big 12 (Percy Gibson and Sherron Dorsey-Walker from Iowa State, and Martez Walker from Texas). Keep an eye on Milwaukee as well, which returns more minutes and possessions from last season than any Horizon team other than Valparaiso.
Team that could fall on its face
Trey Lewis and Anton Grady were both first-team All-Horizon selections for the Vikings last season as juniors, and both players subsequently transferred (to Louisville and Wichita State, respectively). Throw in one more transfer and two departing seniors, and coach Gary Waters is suddenly down to Andre Yates and Vinny Zollo in the "returning veterans" department. At Youngstown State, coach Jerry Slocum sounds resolutely optimistic despite having lost four starters -- two to graduation and two more to greener (transfer) pastures -- from last season's last-place Penguins.
Top pro prospect
Bass was already prominent in the UDM offense last season, and now that Juwan Howard has departed, the sophomore stands to inherit even more possessions and shots. Positions can be a bit blurry in McCallum's system, one where multiple players between about 6-foot-5 and 6-foot-7 all share the ball, grab rebounds and try an occasional 3. Still, at a lean 6-foot-8, Bass has shown he can carry a load on offense, get to the line, perform capably on the defensive glass, and even alter shots. His low-volume 36 percent 3-point shooting is encouraging enough, and if Bass maintains that accuracy while increasing his frequency, you may hear more from him.
Projected all-conference team
G: Kahlil Felder, Oakland
F: Paris Bass, Detroit
F: Matt Tiby, Milwaukee
F: Alec Peters, Valparaiso
C: Vashil Fernandez, Valparaiso