What the Wooden Award tells us

With this season's Wooden Award race coming down to the wire, we decided to take a look at history to see how often this honor has landed in deserving hands. At the risk of giving away the ending at the top, we can answer that question as follows:

Pretty darn often, but not always.

Indeed, one conclusion to draw from looking at Wooden hits and misses over the past decade is that the award is certainly no guarantee of NCAA tournament success. Just three of these guys made the Final Four the year they won the award, and Kentucky's Anthony Davis is the only player here who won both a Wooden Award and a national title. Fans of Wisconsin or Duke in 2015, you've been warned.

Here's an analysis of the past 11 Wooden winners, including whether the pick was a hit or miss and Kevin Pelton's take on the best NBA player from each year's class.

2003-04: Jameer Nelson, Saint Joseph's Hawks

Nelson was a classic Wooden Award winner -- an accomplished high-volume scorer for the nation's No. 1 team. You remember Saint Joe's as the team that finished the regular season atop the polls nationally and undefeated only to lose by 20 to Xavier in the quarterfinals of the A-10 tournament. When the Hawks were given a No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament anyway, Billy Packer voiced his displeasure during the selection show and SJU coach Phil Martelli had some tart words in response.

That controversy never gets off the ground without Nelson, a 5-foot-11 point guard who attacked the rim fearlessly, connected on 52 percent of his 2s and improved his 3-point accuracy dramatically in 2003-04. He had competition for the Wooden Award that season in the form of Connecticut's Emeka Okafor, but in the end Martelli's star swept the major player of the year awards.

Verdict: Hit. Though if 2003-04 had the benefit of better information on player performance, candidates like Arizona State's Ike Diogu and Gonzaga's Ronny Turiaf would perhaps have been given more consideration than they were for second place behind Nelson.

Who would become the best NBA player in this class?

Chris Paul, PG, Wake Forest, Fr. (166 WARP)

With many of the best prospects going straight to the pros, Paul was the nation's most talented freshman. He would subsequently grow into one of the best point guards in NBA history. The Wooden went to another stocky point guard in Nelson. A longtime starter for the Orlando Magic, Nelson has amassed 44 WARP. -- Pelton

2004-05: Andrew Bogut, Utah Utes

Headband-sporting, jersey-popping, smile-flashing Illinois guard Dee Brown was the face of college basketball in 2005, yet the Wooden voters went with the steady, reliable and resolutely unflashy 7-footer from Utah. Long way to go to make a point, right?

Actually, Bogut did have an amazing season -- as did Brown, Paul, Kansas' Wayne Simien and North Carolina's Sean May. Some seasons, a wealth of great players makes the job even tougher for Wooden voters, and 2004-05 was one of those years. Bogut dominated the Mountain West with his scoring in the paint and particularly with his offensive rebounding. But can a center with merely average shot-blocking skills really lay claim to a Wooden Award? (What a timely question!)

Verdict: Miss. The NBA vouchsafed the Wooden voters' handiwork by making Bogut the No. 1 selection of the ensuing draft, but at a listed height of 6-0 Brown nearly equaled (61 percent) the Utah big man's outstanding 2-point accuracy (64). Meanwhile, the Illinois star also drained 43 percent of his 3s on 228 attempts and posted an assist percentage second only to Illini teammate Deron Williams on Bruce Weber's famously guard-heavy team. It was a Wooden-worthy performance.

Who would become the best NBA player in this class?

Chris Paul, PG, Wake Forest, Soph. (166 WARP)

Paul's only real competition in his second season on campus was fellow point guard Williams, who led Illinois to the title game. Alas, the Paul-Williams debate has long since gone dormant, with Paul taking the clear upper hand. Bogut, the Wooden pick who went ahead of both point guards, has enjoyed a nice career (40 WARP) limited by injuries. -- Pelton

2005-06: J.J. Redick, Duke Blue Devils

Redick split some of that season's major POY awards with Gonzaga's Adam Morrison, so it marked something of a hoops cosmic convergence when both players famously cried on national television on the evening of March 23, 2006. Redick was weepy because his top-seeded Duke team simply could not find a path to the basket in the Sweet 16 that didn't end with LSU's Garrett Temple blocking the way or Tyrus Thomas swatting away yet another shot. And Morrison's tears could be traced to the fact that his Bulldogs were about (crying with 2.6 seconds left in regulation) to be edged by a UCLA team that scored the game's last 11 points.

The Wooden Award was cold comfort in the face of an early tournament exit, perhaps, but Redick was definitely a worthy recipient. Taking way more shots than Mike Krzyzewski would cede to any subsequent Blue Devil up to and including Jabari Parker, the 6-4 guard earned every last one of his 643 field goal attempts. In addition to riddling opponents with made shots from both sides of the arc, Redick also connected on 86 percent of his 256 tries from the line. It was a scoring tour de force.

Verdict: Hit. A worthy choice, even though Morrison did have an outstanding season while coming close to attempting 1,000 combined shots from the field and the line (928).

Who would become the best NBA player in this class?

Joakim Noah, F/C, Florida, Soph. (60 WARP)

Because of the coming NBA age limit, the best prospects in the Class of 2005 all went pro. That still left a number of solid big men, including Noah's teammate Al Horford (48 WARP) along with LaMarcus Aldridge (58) and Paul Millsap (66). From this group, I would pick the emotional leader of the national champs. Redick beat out Morrison for the Wooden, though the two split a selection of other national awards. Redick (18 WARP) has developed into a solid role player, while Morrison (minus-8 WARP) saw his slow adjustment to the NBA game exacerbated by a torn ACL. He's already retired at 30. -- Pelton

2006-07: Kevin Durant, Texas Longhorns

The one-and-done era was brand spanking new, and the talk was that freshmen like Durant and Ohio State's Greg Oden were going to revolutionize the college game. Durant certainly did his best to justify the talk.

At 6-9 and the tender age of 18, KD was already a polished scorer who hit 40 percent of his 3s, toyed with defenders in the paint and cleaned the defensive glass with alacrity. Purdue's Carl Landry and Wisconsin's Alando Tucker carried the flag capably that season for the Big Ten and upperclassmen everywhere, but there was little to no doubt that the nation's best player was a certain freshman in Austin.

Verdict: Hit. Though I've long believed that advanced stats surfaced just a heartbeat too late for the punditry's assessment of Rick Barnes that season, Durant was so obviously epic at first sight that when the Longhorns bowed out of the NCAA tournament in the round of 32, the feeling was that Barnes must have somehow been guilty of malpractice. Critique this or that coaching decision if you wish, but also keep in mind this was a painfully young and emphatically undersized Texas team that struggled all season to limit opposing offenses. Besides, on at least one metric Barnes was outstanding in 2006-07: He got a guy named Kevin Durant to come and play for him.

Who would become the best NBA player in this class?

Kevin Durant, SF, Texas, Fr. (112 WARP)

Last year's NBA MVP has already put together a Hall of Fame résumé. We'll never know if No. 1 pick Oden (7 WARP) could have done the same had his knees cooperated. Durant is the first of two Wooden winners who also appear on this list. -- Pelton

2007-08: Tyler Hansbrough, North Carolina Tar Heels

The lift that Hansbrough provided to an outstanding North Carolina offense was even more considerable than generally recognized, which is amazing because Roy Williams' star hardly lacked for acclaim. Still, by "creating contact," as the euphemism goes, Hansbrough was able to attempt 377 free throws during his junior season. Since the Tar Heels' featured scorer was an 81 percent shooter at the line, the result was a vast eruption of points. Today's Carolina teams are merely average when it comes to drawing fouls, but back in the day it was this offense's bread and butter.

Verdict: Miss. And that's no slight against Hansbrough. But my goodness, 2007-08 may have been the single strongest season for individual player performances in the past decade. It was a season that -- Kansas State's Michael Beasley notwithstanding (and he had an extraordinary freshman campaign) -- brought together college excellence with eventual professional stardom to a rare degree. Start with Steph Curry at Davidson, then look at James Harden at Arizona State. You get the idea. Next we have Kevin Love at UCLA, and Blake Griffin was pretty fair for Oklahoma even as a freshman. And I'm still leaving people out, such as George Hill at IUPUI. The Wooden voters faced a rather incredible challenge that season, I get that. But the award for 2008 should have come down to a tie between Curry and Love.

Now, does generating points from the line as well as if not better than any other recent player net out to a Wooden Award? Fair question. When he wasn't shooting free throws, Hansbrough was a high-volume 55 percent 2-point shooter who was good on the glass at both ends. That sums to one exceptionally valuable player, surely, but Hansbrough's junior year happened to coincide with a rather exceptional season nationally.

Who would become the best NBA player in this class?

Russell Westbrook, PG, UCLA, Soph. (75 WARP)

A good debate can be had between Westbrook, Bruins teammate Love (78 WARP) and Oklahoma forward Griffin (57). This season's dominant performance gives Westbrook the slight edge, although he can't boast an MVP trophy like Memphis guard Derrick Rose (35), whose career has been derailed by knee injuries. Hansbrough (5) has been merely a reserve most of his NBA career. -- Pelton

2008-09: Blake Griffin, Oklahoma Sooners

Everybody came back in 2008-09: Hansbrough and the rest of UNC's Final Four team, Curry, Harden -- it was like no one wanted to leave. Griffin caught this same wave and hung around for his sophomore season, leading my colleague Fran Fraschilla to memorably and aptly characterize the Sooner in the act of rebounding as being like "a dump truck on springs." Griffin may have been the best pure rebounder in Division I, and in a season in which DeJuan Blair was performing amazing feats on the boards for Pittsburgh, that's saying something.

In addition to wreaking havoc on the glass, Griffin posted an Okafor-like 2-point percentage of 65.9 on 451 attempts. Yes, he was an adventure at the line (59 percent), which inflicted real harm on the OU offense. Enough harm to disqualify him as a national player of the year?

Verdict: Miss. Not because Griffin's season wasn't Wooden material -- it was -- but because history, with its unerring sense of humor, placed the Sooners star next to a certain guy named Ty Lawson at North Carolina. And Lawson just happened to have what may have been the perfect point guard season for the national champion Tar Heels. Hansbrough and Wayne Ellington shot more often, but few players have ever shot more effectively while also running an offense than Lawson did as a junior.

Who would become the best NBA player in this class?

Stephen Curry, PG, Davidson, Jr. (70 WARP)

Even with Westbrook and Love in the NBA, there was plenty of talent left in college hoops, including this season's two leading MVP contenders: Curry and Arizona State sophomore Harden (66 WARP). I'd give Curry the slight edge but can't really disagree with Harden partisans. Griffin, the best freshman prospect to return for a second season in the one-and-done era, won the Wooden and has certainly earned a place in the conversation about best pro. --Pelton

2009-10: Evan Turner, Ohio State Buckeyes

With much fanfare prior to the 2009-10 season, Ohio State coach Thad Matta announced that Turner would be his point guard. Pundits were perplexed that a national title contender would entrust its point guard duties to a 6-7 player who had previously been a wing.

This also happened to be effectively the first season that Twitter was on the scene as an in-game complement to the action, and whenever Turner committed a turnover, the tweets would erupt ("How's that point guard working for you now, Matta?"). The whole problem with the perplexed reactions and subsequent eruptions, however, was that Turner had been a de facto point guard for much of the previous season. Turner was a little turnover-prone, but he did it all for the Buckeyes that season -- assists, scoring, ball-hawking and defensive boards.

Verdict: Hit (barely). DeMarcus Cousins was simply a force of nature for Kentucky that season, but if there's an informal minimum for minutes in Wooden balloting, the UK freshman likely came up shy in that department in 2009-10.

Who would become the best NBA player in this class?

Paul George, G/F, Fresno State, Soph. (35 WARP)

We're still sorting out the best NBA player from this season, with 2015 All-Stars Jimmy Butler (19 WARP), DeMarcus Cousins (40), Klay Thompson (16) and John Wall (36) in the conversation, not to mention 2014 Finals MVP Kawhi Leonard (26). Before a scary injury playing for USA Basketball, which has kept him off the court this season, George was the leader of the group. Turner (minus-6) -- who briefly backed up George in Indiana -- has struggled with efficiency in the NBA. -- Pelton

2010-11: Jimmer Fredette, Brigham Young Cougars

That thousand-shot threshold that Morrison trifled with in 2005-06 was punctured with a vengeance by Fredette in 2010-11, as Dave Rose's star sent the ball toward the basket 1,047 times either from the field or from the line. You don't often see a Wooden-caliber player given this degree of green-lighting, but Fredette more than justified the privilege. As an 89 percent foul shooter, the senior was most effective when he got to the line, which he did 282 times.

One aspect of Fredette's game that was often overlooked was that he was somehow able to function concurrently as BYU's point guard, easily recording the highest assist percentage on the team. And for a guy who had the ball in his hands more often than any player in the country, his turnovers were astonishingly rare. Fredette truly represented a rare confluence of abilities on offense.

Verdict: Hit. Duke's Nolan Smith garnered one national POY nod, but otherwise Fredette swept all the trophies in a season where Syracuse's Wes Johnson and Connecticut's Kemba Walker also drew their fair share of attention.

Who would become the best NBA player in this class?

Kyrie Irving, PG, Duke, Fr. (33 WARP)

For the first time since Durant, a one-and-done player has proved to be the best in the NBA. Irving has shown this season that he can showcase his individual skills on a winning team, and at 22 he is younger than players like Butler and Thompson. Because of injuries, Irving was never in the Wooden race. Winner Fredette (1 WARP) has had a tough time finding consistent playing time. -- Pelton

2011-12: Anthony Davis, Kentucky Wildcats

At last, a Wooden-national championship two-fer. There is evaluative satisfaction to be gained from giving a POY award to clearly the best player on clearly the best team, and Davis filled that need.

John Calipari's freshman was the most extreme of outliers, a dominant shot-blocker who could carry as much offense as Kentucky chose to load on to him. Davis stayed out of foul trouble, came close to leading the team in minutes and shot 71 percent at the line. Factoring in both offense and defense, there's a player of the decade case to be made for Davis.

Verdict: Hit. Possibly the easiest decision Wooden voters have ever faced, though Michigan State's Draymond Green, Kansas' Thomas Robinson, Murray State's Isaiah Canaan and UK's Michael Kidd-Gilchrist also posted outstanding seasons.

Who would become the best NBA player in this class?

Anthony Davis, F/C, Kentucky, Fr. (36 WARP)

The second case where the NCAA's best player has proved to be the best in the NBA was in 2011-12, when Davis' dominance of college basketball as a freshman presaged his prodigious NBA stardom. Davis is already in the discussion of the NBA's best player, and he won't turn 22 until next week. Buckle up. -- Pelton

2012-13: Trey Burke, Michigan Wolverines

After toying with the idea of jumping to the NBA, Burke stayed for his sophomore season and contributed his mite to what figures to be the strongest All-Big Ten nucleus anyone will see for many years: Burke, plus Victor Oladipo and Cody Zeller of Indiana.

Despite a listed height of 6-0 and good perimeter range (38 percent on 198 attempts), Burke did most of his work inside the arc -- and thrived there. The marriage of John Beilein's X's and O's and Burke at point guard was a match made in heaven, as the Michigan offense tore through a defensively strong Big Ten to the tune of 1.12 points per possession.

Verdict: Hit. Though Burke received strong pushes not only from Oladipo and Zeller but also from Georgetown's Otto Porter and a certain prolific scorer at Creighton ...

Who would become the best NBA player in this class?

Marcus Smart, G, Oklahoma State, Fr. (2 WARP)

It's much too early to predict who will emerge from a relatively weak crop of star talent in 2012-13. Wooden winner Burke (2 WARP) has found more success since moving to the bench, Michael Carter-Williams (6) was rookie of the year, and Oladipo (4) has flashed promise, while Mason Plumlee (9) actually leads the group in WARP the last two seasons. But I'm going with Smart, who's a year behind the group after sticking around for his sophomore season and has flashed all-defensive potential. -- Pelton

2013-14: Doug McDermott, Creighton Bluejays

It was impossible to utter the words "scoring is down" in the vicinity of McDermott. In his senior campaign he scored 30 or more points an incredible 13 times, including a 45-point outing against Providence to bring down the curtain on the regular season.

McDermott's accuracy from both sides of the arc was uncanny throughout his career, and his numbers as a senior (57 percent 2-point shooting and 45 percent on his 3s) merely reinforced a pre-existing perception. Creighton's star was simply made to score. Anytime you hear "athleticism," think of McDermott and consider whether the ability to get the ball into the basket hundreds of times shouldn't be considered a somewhat athletic feat.

Verdict: Hit. But postseason-version Shabazz Napier would have won this thing in a walk if he had shown up even a little bit earlier.

Let's see, by my count that makes eight hits and three misses. Not bad, Wooden voters. Keep up the good work.

Who would become the best NBA player in this class?

Andrew Wiggins, G/F, Kansas, Fr. (-1 WARP)

It's even more premature to project this season's NBA rookies (and some players who aren't yet in the league). Still, despite below-replacement play thus far, Wiggins has demonstrated more than enough potential to suggest that he will eventually emerge ahead of players like Smart, Jabari Parker and Joel Embiid as the best pro from the most recent college season. After dominating college hoops as a senior, McDermott has found the adjustment to playing wing in the pros a challenge. The Bulls have been outscored by 6.9 points per 100 possessions with McDermott on the floor, per NBA.com/Stats. -- Pelton