We ranked the likely Giant Killers in the East and South on Monday; now it's time for the Midwest and West. As always, if the numbers are confusing, check out our methodology and our Giant Killers blog.
MIDWEST REGION
BEST BET
No. 14 North Dakota State (16.1 percent) vs. No. 3 Kansas (40.4 percent)
The Jayhawks are big and young, and our model sees them as ready to be taken: Kansas turns the ball over on 21.6 percent of possessions while forcing miscues just 19.2 percent of the time. That gap is a huge red flag -- it's the largest for any Giant not named Xavier, and has spelled doom for past power teams. The Jayhawks also do a poor job of preventing 3s -- 29.8 percent of opponents' field goals come from beyond the arc. Don't think that matters? In two losses this past month, Texas Tech and Baylor got hot and hit a combined 24-for-40 from downtown, which is a familiar recipe for a successful mid-major. So can North Dakota State exploit these flaws? Our model doesn't like the Bison's reliance on free throws (margin of 7.0 per 100 possessions) or D (48.5 percent shooting on 2-pointers, 35.4 percent on treys). But North Dakota State can shoot, it holds onto the ball, and it's got a triple-threat secret weapon in senior G Ben Woodside, who shoots 43.6 percent from deep, attacks the basket (7.2 fouls drawn per 40 minutes played, 12th in the country) and dishes (37.3 assists per 100 possessions, 14th in the country).
WORTH A FLYER
No. 13 Cleveland State (34.9 percent) vs. No. 4 Wake Forest (17.8 percent)
If only Cleveland State had dropped one slot lower in its bracket and been slotted against Kansas, we would have seen the kind of likely-Killer vs. vulnerable-Giant matchup the Vikings had when they upset Butler to win the Horizon League tournament, which surprised some, but not our spreadsheets. Wake makes this a tougher task, although the Demon Deacons do have a couple of flaws, notably 31.7 percent shooting on 3s, which Maryland's zone exploited in the ACC tournament. The Deacs also enjoy a FT advantage of 7.9 per 100 possessions, so they could struggle in a loosely called game. Cleveland State, with a knack for generating turnovers (24.2 percent of opponent possessions, 14th in the country) will try to pressure Wake into mistakes, led by senior guard Cedric Jackson, who is third in the country with 5.5 steals per 100 possessions. If he runs wild, Wake could be in for a long night.
NOT COMPLETELY CRAZY
No. 15 Robert Morris (8.8 percent) vs. No. 2 Michigan State (41.7 percent)
The Spartans are deep, crash the boards and give up just 88.4 points per 100 possessions. But there are red flags: Michigan State has a negative turnover differential (20.8 percent of their possessions vs. 20.3 percent of opponents'). The Spartans are heavily dependent on their free throw margin (7.3 per 100 possessions) to outscore opponents. And they give up too many 3s. But the Colonials, who have their own turnover and 3-point problems, aren't built to exploit those flaws. Still, on a bad day for Michigan State, Robert Morris guard Jeremy Chappell -- a 40.6 percent 3-point shooter and 85.1 percent free throw shooter with 4.4 steals per 100 possessions -- could be a worthy assassin.
STAY AWAY
No. 11 Dayton (24.7 percent) vs. No. 6 West Virginia (0 percent)
The Flyers are tough on D, but have drawn a particularly tough opponent in the first round. The Mountaineers seem designed to ward off Killers: They don't turn the ball over but do generate mistakes, and they're monsters on the offensive glass (40.8 offensive rebounds per 100 possessions, sixth in the country), which adds up to high scoring efficiency. They clamp down on opponents' 3s. And they don't rely on free throws to build their scoring margin. Dayton's in big trouble.
No. 16 Alabama State (13.2 percent) or Morehead State (2.6 percent) vs. No. 1 Louisville (26.7 percent)
Louisville already destroyed Morehead State 79-41 in November. Alabama State has Chief Kickingstallionsims, a 7-foot-1, 265-pound senior who ranks fifth in the country with 12.3 blocks per 100 possessions and first on the list of coolest names. Not that it will matter against the Cards.
WEST REGION
BEST BET
None. Sorry.
WORTH A FLYER
No. 11 Utah State (20 percent) vs. No. 6 Marquette (10.5 percent)
The Golden Eagles boast a high-powered offense (adjusted efficiency of 117.7, ninth in the country) largely because they hang on to the ball (16.0 turnovers per 100 possessions, lowest among all Giants). Our model says that makes an upset unlikely. But the spreadsheets also don't recognize the fact that Dominic James is out with a broken foot. And they do show that the Aggies are nearly as effective on offense as Marquette. Utah State scores just 72.9 points per game, but that's because of its slow pace (324th in the NCAA). Adjusted for tempo, it has an offensive efficiency of 116.8, and a 55.9 effective field goal percentage, fourth in the country. This one should be interesting, especially considering the fact that the Killer's RPI (24) outranks the Giant's (35).
NOT COMPLETELY CRAZY
No. 12 Northern Iowa (6.8 percent) vs. No. 5 Purdue (5.2 percent)
Well, it's pretty darn close to crazy, even though this game has become a trendy upset pick. We beg to differ. Northern Iowa relies heavily on free throws (margin of 7.7 per 100 possessions, fourth-highest of any Killer in the tournament), and its biggest scoring threats are prone to severe foul trouble -- forward Adam Koch (12.3 ppg) has fouled out of five games and guard Kwadzo Ahelegbe (11.8 ppg) has been sent packing four times. Another big problem: Purdue's defensive effective field goal percentage is just 43.9, ninth-best in the country.
STAY AWAY
No. 14 Cornell (12.3 percent) vs. No. 3 Missouri (0 percent)
Sorry, Ivy Leaguers -- this one could get ugly. Missouri not only forces tons of turnovers off its press (25.6 percent of possessions), the Tigers also take care of the ball, coughing it up only 16.8 percent of the time. That gap is the largest in the country, and protects the Tigers against any upstart, let alone one as weak as Cornell.
No. 16 Chattanooga (0 percent) vs. No. 1 Connecticut (33.4 percent)
Connecticut relies on free throws to outscore its opponents more than any team in the country, which should make it a vulnerable Giant. But not against Chattanooga. The Mocs' list of flaws is too long to list, and they're only here because Davidson choked in the Southern Conference tournament. Chattanooga ranks as the least likely Killer in the field.
No. 15 Cal State Northridge (20.9 percent) vs. No. 2 Memphis (3.8 percent)
The Matadors run an up-tempo style that generates offensive boards and turnovers, but also leads to them throwing the ball away on 24.2 percent of possessions. They've also lost senior guards Josh Jenkins (to a car accident) and Deon Tresvant (to suspension after allegedly stealing merchandise from an electronics store on New Year's Day). More importantly, Memphis has the best defense in the country, ranking first in the NCAA in adjusted efficiency (79.4) and opponents' effective field goal percentage 40.4 percent. There's no upset to be found here.
Peter Keating is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine.