Obvious upsets? Not this year. Not only does the bracket feature an unusually low number of fertile Killers (thanks, selection committee, for leaving out San Diego State, St. Mary's and Davidson), but most of the vulnerable Goliaths didn't draw well-armed Davids. Still, there are a few opportunities for Giant Killers to strike, and we'll guide you through the East and the South Regions first. If these numbers are unfamiliar to you, check out our methodology and our Giant Killers blog.
EAST REGION
BEST BET
No. 13 Portland State (17.6 percent) vs. No. 4 Xavier (62.7 percent)
Portland State, whose adjusted statistics are only about as impressive as Iowa State's or St. John's, isn't the ideal Killer. But Xavier is a textbook example of a Giant waiting to be slain by just about anyone: The Musketeers turn the ball over considerably more often than they generate turnovers (21.9 percent vs.18.9 percent of possessions). They are heavily reliant on making more free throws than opponents (9.1 FT margin per 100 possessions), which is always a concern in a one-and-done scenario. And they don't score enough to blow past their flaws (adjusted offensive efficiency of 111.3). Considering everything working against Xavier, and the fact that Portland State at least has a puncher's chance, according to our model, this is as good an upset pick as you'll find in the first round.
NOT COMPLETELY CRAZY
No. 14 American (12.9 percent) vs. No. 3 Villanova (39.1 percent)
The Wildcats feature characteristics common to Slain giants of the past: They are vulnerable to 3s and depend heavily on free throws to outscore opponents. American doesn't stack up as strong enough across the board to make this a truly sound bet, but the Eagles can slow the game down, make it ugly and hope Villanova's flaws manifest themselves.
STAY AWAY
No. 11 Virginia Commonwealth (40.2 percent) vs. No. 6 UCLA (0 percent)
The irresistible, Giant-Killing force meets the immovable, Giant object. Our model says VCU has the best chance of any team in the tournament of pulling a big upset. Unfortunately, it also says that UCLA has zero chance of being upset by a GK. That's a problem, and the best way to solve it is through history. Of the 50 Giants since 2004 whose estimated odds of losing were under 20 percent, only two actually went down. No Giant with a zero-percent mark has fallen. Key stat: UCLA has an adjusted offensive efficiency of 121.3, third-highest in the country, while getting outscored at the free-throw line, strongly suggesting its offense won't be slowed by a pesky Killer. This has emerged as the tourney's trendy upset pick, so you might actually gain some ground by going with the chalk.
No. 16 East Tennessee State (17.7 percent) vs. No. 1 Pittsburgh (16.8 percent)
It would take some extraordinary numbers for our model to predict the first loss ever by a top seed. The Bucs don't have them.
No. 15 Binghamton (21.2 percent) vs. No. 2 Duke (0 percent)
The Blue Devils are masters of extra possessions, generating far more turnovers and offensive rebounds (surprise!) than opponents. They also allow fewer than 20 percent of opponents' field goals to come from beyond the arc. That's why they rank as the least likely Giant to get upset this year, and Binghamton's profile isn't strong enough to suggest anything crazy.
SOUTH REGION
BEST BET
No. 11 Temple (32.6 percent) vs. No. 6 Arizona State (27.9 percent)
The Sun Devils play sloooow (61.2 possessions per game, by far the fewest among Giants), which means James Harden (20.8 ppg) is even more impressive than he looks. But ASU doesn't grab offensive rebounds (30.6 percent of possessions, 250th in the country). And they give opponents too many open looks from 3-point land (27.4 percent of all field goals). Temple, on the other hand, keeps foes off the offensive glass, doesn't turn the ball over and doesn't rely on free throws to outscore opponents. Also, our model can't distinguish between dominating scorers who can carry a team through the postseason and those who can be stopped as soon as they run into a good opponent, but senior guard Dionte Christmas certainly was the former in the Atlantic 10 tournament.
WORTH A FLYER
No. 12 Western Kentucky (25.4 percent) vs. No. 5 Illinois (37.4 percent)
Illinois' defense is among the very best in the country, with an adjusted efficiency of 86.0 (fourth in the NCAA). But the Illini don't grab offensive rebounds (30.3 percent of possessions, 258th in the country), while the Hilltoppers are monsters on the offensive glass (37.9 percent, 28th in the nation). That could spell trouble for Illinois, which was held under 40 points twice in a three-week span, losing to Minnesota 59-36 and, notoriously, to Penn State 38-33. Teams capable of that level of inefficiency are vulnerable in March.
No. 15 Morgan State (30.9 percent) vs. No. 2 Oklahoma (44.5 percent)
It's never advisable to pick a 15-seed. That said, there's a lot going on here to make this matchup intriguing. Morgan State does everything history says a GK needs to: The Bears outrebound and outstrip opponents and their scoring margin isn't based on free throws. Meanwhile, Oklahoma might be an offensive machine, but nearly half its scoring edge comes from foul shots. The Sooners rank just 304th in the country at generating turnovers (18.0 percent of possessions). Look deeper into those stats and you'll find a model for beating the Sooners. In Oklahoma's two losses this month (73-64 to Missouri and 71-70 to Oklahoma State), the Sooners had a -22 turnover margin. And Blake Griffin, who draws the second-most fouls per minute in the country, shot only 7-for-15 from the line. It's still asking a lot of Morgan State to take advantage of those flaws, but keep a close eye on this game.
NOT COMPLETELY CRAZY
No. 14 Stephen F. Austin (20.9 percent) vs. No. 3 Syracuse (34.9 percent)
Our spreadsheet can't predict how much gas Syracuse will have left in the tank after the Big East tournament. But it does know that the Orange attempted a whopping 9.3 more free throws than opponents per 100 possessions, and that's been dangerous for Giants in the past. Meanwhile, the Lumberjacks don't turn the ball over, don't allow 3-pointers and need the charity stripe less than any killer (FT margin of -6.5 per 100 possessions). Another number that could make this scary for Syracuse fans: Stephen F. Austin allows effective field-goal shooting of just 42.6 percent by opponents, third-best in the entire country.
STAY AWAY
No. 13 Akron (38.6 percent) vs. No. 4 Gonzaga (13.1 percent)
Akron was set up nicely for a kill-shot, but Gonzaga is not the right target. The Bulldogs turn the ball over on just 16.2 percent of possessions, lowest of any Giant. And while five historical GKs with a rating between 30 percent and 40 percent have upset a Giant, the teams they beat all were extremely vulnerable: The lowest percentage of that vanquished group was 42.1 percent. Gonzaga isn't close to that level.
No. 16 Radford (0 percent) vs. No. 1 UNC (6.9 percent)
We'd waste your time with numbers, but why bother? There's absolutely nothing to suggest even a sniff of an upset in this game.
Peter Keating is a senior writer for ESPN The Magazine.