After a 1-1 draw against Singapore, India's AFC Asian Cup qualification campaign is hanging by a thread. At the halfway point of the campaign, Khalid Jamil's team have two draws and a loss, and now face an uphill task to make it to the continental showpiece event in Saudi Arabia in 2027.
India can still qualify for the Asian Cup. Mathematically, it is still not an impossibility, in fact, not even an improbability just yet. However, the important thing is that qualification for the Asian Cup is no more in India's hands. They will have to hope for a few other results to go their way.
As it stands
How can India still qualify?
The most straightforward path to qualification has a couple of factors to consider. India first need to win all their remaining three games -- two at home (against Singapore and Hong Kong), and one away in Bangladesh.
In that case, India would move to 11 points, and they would need only one other result to go their way -- Hong Kong ideally losing to Singapore at home next month, although India could have a chance in this case, even if Hong Kong draw against Singapore.
If Hong Kong lose to both Singapore and India, they can only get to 10 points, and in that case, India would qualify. If Hong Kong draw against Singapore and lose to India, both India and Hong Kong would be tied on 11 points, and then qualification would come down to tie-breakers -- first head-to-head, and then goal difference, where India trail Hong Kong by three goals, as it stands.
What if India don't win all their remaining games?
If India don't win two of their three remaining games, they will be mathematically out of contention.
Even if they win two of their remaining three games and lose one other, they will be out. If India win two games and lose one, they can, at most, get to eight points. At least one of the remaining teams is guaranteed to get to nine points in this scenario, and India will be out.
Here are the different scenarios:
If India beat Hong Kong and Singapore, and draw against Bangladesh
India would finish with nine points and would have to hope that a bunch of other results go their way. First off, they would need a draw between Hong Kong and Singapore, and then a couple of huge favours from Bangladesh, in beating both Hong Kong and Singapore. In such a scenario, Hong Kong and Bangladesh would both finish with eight points, and Singapore with six.
If India beat Hong Kong and Bangladesh, and draw against Singapore
India will finish with nine points. Once again, in this scenario, they would need Bangladesh to beat both Hong Kong and Singapore. They would also need a draw between Hong Kong and Singapore. In such a scenario, Hong Kong would finish with eight points, and both Bangladesh and Singapore would finish with sevent points.
If India beat Singapore and Bangladesh, and draw against Hong Kong
India would finish with nine points. In this case, India's best case scenario would be Singapore and Bangladesh both beating Hong Kong, and then Bangladesh beating Singapore. Hong Kong and Singapore would both finish with eight points, and Bangladesh with seven.
In case Hong Kong draw against either Singapore or Bangladesh in this scenario, they would be on nine points too, and that would mean they end up level on points with India and we would need tie-breakers to separate the two teams.
If India beat Hong Kong and Singapore, and lose to Bangladesh
India would finish with eight points. If Hong Kong win any one of their other two games, they would finish on at least 10 points. If Hong Kong draw both their other games, they would finish on nine points. If they lose both their other games, then either Singapore or Bangladesh are guaranteed to finish with at least nine points as well.
If India beat Hong Kong and Bangladesh, and lose to Singapore
India would finish on eight points. But that wouldn't be enough because Singapore would reach eight points by beating India, and then either them or Hong Kong will reach nine points or more when those two sides meet each other next month.
If India beat Singapore and Bangladesh, and lose to Hong Kong
India would finish on eight points, but it would be curtains, as a win against India would take Hong Kong to a minimum of 10 points.