UPDATE: After India's win over Italy in their last pool B match, they finished second in the group, and will face Germany in the semifinals.
If India win that semifinal, then they will be through to the Paris Olympics irrespective of the result in the final. However, winning the semifinal won't be an easy task against Germany, who are the highest-ranked team in this competition in Ranchi. India, though, will have a second chance even if they don't manage to win against Germany.
With three spots for the Paris Olympics up for grabs at this tournament, the losers of the two semifinals will play an all important clash on Friday, with the winner of that third-place playoff joining the two finalists at the Olympics. So if India lose to Germany, they will then have to beat the loser of the semifinal between USA and Japan.
In short, India have two more games left this week in Ranchi. Win one of those, and they'll be off to France in July.
India will play Italy in their final pool match of the FIH Women's Olympic qualifiers in Ranchi, on Tuesday. But what are their chances of making (or not making) the trip to the Paris Olympics?
India got off to a poor start in the tournament with a 1-0 loss to the USA, but they bounced back well to beat New Zealand 3-1 in their second game to ensure that they are well in the hunt for a semifinal spot, from where the top three teams will make it to the Olympics. The top two teams from each pool will qualify for the semifinals.
As it stands
The USA sit atop Pool B with 6 points from 2 games, after beating India and Italy 1-0 and 2-0 respectively. India and New Zealand both have a win and a loss each, but the Indians have the advantage on the final day, of playing the weakest team in the pool on paper, and also that they play their match after New Zealand face the USA, so they will know exactly what they need to do in the last match of the pool stages.
Is there a chance India don't qualify even if they beat Italy?
Yes, just a win against Italy doesn't guarantee India a spot in the semifinals, and it wouldn't really take a particularly wacky or improbable scenario for that to happen.
Sample this. India beat Italy 1-0. Their goal difference goes up to +2, and the goals scored up to 4. If New Zealand beat the USA 2-1, both those teams would have a goal difference of +2 as well. New Zealand would top the pool because they would have the most goals scored. India and USA would be tied on 4 goals scored and +2 goal difference, and the USA would pip India by virtue of their superior head-to-head record.
However, if India beat Italy by more than one goal, then they are guaranteed to make the semifinals.
If India draw against Italy?
In this case, India's fate in the tournament would be completely in the USA's hands. If they beat New Zealand and India draw, then it's a straightforward progression to the semifinals for India. However, complications come in if both the final Pool B games end in draws.
India and New Zealand will both be tied on points and goal difference if they both play out draws on Tuesday. In that case, if India are to qualify, they will have to score a goal more than New Zealand. Then the teams will be tied on goal difference and goals scored, and India will progress with their win against New Zealand giving them a superior head-to-head record.
What if India lose to Italy?
They can still qualify, although it will boil down to goal difference or goals scored between them and New Zealand in this case.
If New Zealand were to lose by a bigger margin than India on Tuesday, then India will go through.
If India lose to Italy by the same margin that New Zealand lose to USA by, then India will have to score one more goal than New Zealand to progress.
However, if India and New Zealand play out the same scoreline resulting in losses, then New Zealand will progress by virtue of having scored more goals than India.
The mathematics of it all will only come into play if India fail to beat Italy tomorrow. And in that case, maybe they don't deserve to be saved by the math either.