Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Wide receiver adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for wide receivers:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Wide Receivers (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. Malik Nabers , NYG 47 50 3 2 14 216 2 2. Ja'Marr Chase , CIN 42 41 -1 2 16 175 1 3. Davante Adams , LAR 39 32 -7 2 10 157 2 4. Chris Olave , NO 38 24 -15 2 15 174 1 5. Rome Odunze , CHI 38 48 9 2 12 179 1 6. Brian Thomas Jr. , JAC 37 18 -19 2 12 171 1 7. CeeDee Lamb , DAL 37 38 1 2 14 208 0 8. Zay Flowers , BAL 36 43 7 2 14 169 1 9. Jakobi Meyers , LV 36 31 -5 2 14 153 1 10. Jaxon Smith-Njigba , SEA 35 38 2 2 15 193 0 11. Wan'Dale Robinson , NYG 34 40 6 2 13 148 1 12. Amon-Ra St. Brown , DET 33 48 15 2 10 122 2 13. Puka Nacua , LAR 33 51 18 2 15 154 0 14. Hollywood Brown , KC 33 28 -5 2 15 140 1 15. Tetairoa McMillan , CAR 32 28 -4 2 11 163 1 16. Hunter Renfrow , CAR 32 27 -5 2 9 115 2 17. Drake London , ATL 30 19 -11 2 12 130 1 18. Deebo Samuel Sr. , WAS 29 40 11 2 14 129 0 19. Keenan Allen , LAC 29 37 8 2 12 120 1 20. Mike Evans , TB 29 21 -8 2 9 168 1 21. George Pickens , DAL 29 24 -5 2 7 111 2 22. Quentin Johnston , LAC 29 41 12 2 8 129 1 23. Troy Franklin , DEN 27 32 6 2 11 111 1 24. Justin Jefferson , MIN 26 26 0 2 7 109 1 25. Rashid Shaheed , NO 26 25 -2 2 9 109 1 26. Jerry Jeudy , CLE 26 21 -5 2 10 142 0 27. Emeka Egbuka , TB 26 37 11 2 8 121 1 28. Keon Coleman , BUF 26 31 5 2 9 112 1 29. Cedric Tillman , CLE 26 26 1 2 9 118 1 30. Garrett Wilson , NYJ 25 32 6 2 12 124 0 31. Nico Collins , HOU 25 20 -5 2 6 97 2 32. Xavier Legette , CAR 25 5 -20 2 9 102 1 33. Jauan Jennings , SF 24 24 -1 2 9 112 1 34. Calvin Ridley , TEN 24 15 -9 2 10 116 0 35. Dyami Brown , JAC 24 26 2 2 8 88 1 36. Courtland Sutton , DEN 24 20 -4 2 7 104 1 37. Travis Hunter , JAC 24 15 -9 2 10 94 1 38. Calvin Austin III , PIT 23 20 -3 2 5 111 1 39. Marvin Harrison Jr. , ARI 23 23 0 2 7 91 1 40. Ladd McConkey , LAC 23 23 1 2 11 104 0 41. Tyreek Hill , MIA 22 25 3 2 8 119 0 42. Ricky Pearsall , SF 22 24 2 2 5 121 1 43. Jaylen Waddle , MIA 21 25 4 2 7 88 1 44. DJ Moore , CHI 21 18 -3 2 8 95 0 45. Romeo Doubs , GB 21 21 0 2 5 93 1 46. Kayshon Boutte , NE 21 25 4 2 4 94 1 47. Terry McLaurin , WAS 21 15 -6 2 7 112 0 48. Elic Ayomanor , TEN 20 19 -1 2 6 107 1 49. Tre Tucker , LV 20 18 -2 2 5 93 1 50. DK Metcalf , PIT 20 23 4 2 8 83 1 51. Joshua Palmer , BUF 19 18 -1 2 6 100 0 52. Tyquan Thornton , KC 19 20 1 2 4 119 0 53. Michael Pittman Jr. , IND 19 28 9 2 9 91 0 54. Jameson Williams , DET 18 25 7 2 6 94 0 55. Olamide Zaccheaus , CHI 18 12 -6 2 9 86 0 56. Khalil Shakir , BUF 18 15 -4 2 8 88 0 57. Stefon Diggs , NE 18 19 1 2 9 91 0 58. Cooper Kupp , SEA 18 20 2 2 8 93 0 59. Josh Downs , IND 16 14 -2 2 6 72 0 60. Alec Pierce , IND 16 15 -1 2 3 76 1 61. Sterling Shepard , TB 16 14 -1 2 7 84 0 62. Jalen Nailor , MIN 15 10 -5 2 3 72 1 63. Dont'e Thornton Jr. , LV 14 10 -5 2 3 92 0 64. DeVonta Smith , PHI 14 14 0 2 6 70 0 65. Tee Higgins , CIN 14 21 7 2 4 86 0 66. Chimere Dike , TEN 14 4 -10 2 4 48 0 67. Dontayvion Wicks , GB 14 13 0 2 4 84 0 68. KaVontae Turpin , DAL 14 20 6 2 4 42 0 69. Malik Washington , MIA 13 14 1 2 5 54 0 70. A.J. Brown , PHI 13 10 -3 2 6 69 0 71. Noah Brown , WAS 12 7 -6 2 4 61 0 72. Ray-Ray McCloud III , ATL 12 8 -4 2 4 59 0 73. Michael Wilson , ARI 12 10 -2 2 3 51 1 74. JuJu Smith-Schuster , KC 12 12 0 2 6 56 0 75. Rashod Bateman , BAL 11 7 -5 2 5 61 0 76. DeMario Douglas , NE 11 10 -1 2 4 35 0 77. Marvin Mims Jr. , DEN 11 13 1 2 4 44 0 78. Matthew Golden , GB 11 5 -6 2 3 47 0 79. DeAndre Hopkins , BAL 11 26 15 2 2 46 1 80. Tory Horton , SEA 11 11 1 2 3 54 0 81. Jayden Reed , GB 10 14 3 2 3 47 0 82. Adonai Mitchell , IND 10 8 -2 2 3 59 0 83. Darnell Mooney , ATL 10 4 -6 1 2 29 1 84. Casey Washington , ATL 9 6 -3 1 3 52 0 85. Jalen Tolbert , DAL 9 5 -5 2 3 40 0 86. Devaughn Vele , NO 9 10 1 2 1 20 1 87. Xavier Hutchinson , HOU 9 10 2 2 4 43 0 88. Brandin Cooks , NO 8 10 2 2 4 42 0 89. Jaylin Lane , WAS 8 3 -5 2 4 44 0 90. Parker Washington , JAC 8 13 4 2 4 38 0 91. Mack Hollins , NE 8 9 1 2 3 27 0 92. Elijah Moore , BUF 8 13 5 2 2 15 0 93. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine , MIA 7 6 -2 2 4 32 0 94. Devontez Walker , BAL 7 17 9 2 1 16 1 95. Brycen Tremayne , CAR 7 8 1 2 3 44 0 96. Kalif Raymond , DET 7 7 0 2 3 35 0 97. Andrei Iosivas , CIN 7 2 -5 2 3 43 0 98. Darius Slayton , NYG 7 8 1 2 2 33 0 99. Justin Watson , HOU 7 6 -1 2 2 27 0 100. Jayden Higgins , HOU 7 9 2 2 3 35 0 101. Greg Dortch , ARI 7 3 -4 2 2 22 0 102. Jahan Dotson , PHI 6 10 4 2 3 36 0 103. Adam Thielen , MIN 6 7 0 2 2 36 0 104. Tre Harris , LAC 6 8 1 2 3 30 0 105. Isaac TeSlaa , DET 6 12 7 2 1 20 1 106. Jordan Whittington , LAR 5 7 1 2 1 17 0 107. Luther Burden III , CHI 5 2 -3 2 3 17 0 108. D'Wayne Eskridge , MIA 5 4 -1 2 2 27 0 109. Tyler Lockett , TEN 5 3 -2 2 2 27 0 110. Ryan Miller , TB 5 9 4 2 1 20 0 111. Tylan Wallace , BAL 5 11 6 2 1 14 0 112. Kendrick Bourne , SF 5 6 1 1 3 21 0 113. Tyler Johnson , NYJ 5 5 0 2 2 29 0 114. Josh Reynolds , NYJ 4 4 0 1 2 24 0 115. Pat Bryant , DEN 4 4 0 2 2 17 0 116. Arian Smith , NYJ 4 1 -3 2 1 16 0 117. Isaiah Bond , CLE 4 4 0 2 2 9 0 118. Roman Wilson , PIT 4 2 -2 2 2 19 0 119. Mitchell Tinsley , CIN 3 8 5 2 0 8 0 120. Tim Patrick , JAC 3 0 -3 2 0 7 0 121. KhaDarel Hodge , ATL 3 0 -3 2 0 12 0 122. Jason Brownlee , KC 3 0 -3 2 0 7 0 123. Jamari Thrash , CLE 3 3 0 2 2 16 0 124. Van Jefferson , TEN 3 3 0 2 2 12 0 125. Trent Sherfield , DEN 3 3 0 2 2 11 0 126. Savion Williams , GB 3 4 1 2 1 4 0 127. Tyrell Shavers , BUF 3 0 -3 2 1 15 0 128. Tutu Atwell , LAR 3 1 -1 2 2 13 0 129. Jaylin Noel , HOU 3 2 -1 2 1 11 0 130. Xavier Smith , LAR 2 5 2 2 1 14 0 131. Ben Skowronek , PIT 2 9 7 2 1 8 0 132. Chris Moore , WAS 2 4 2 1 0 13 0 133. Nikko Remigio , KC 2 3 1 2 1 9 0 134. Luke McCaffrey , WAS 2 5 3 2 1 9 0 135. Malik Heath , GB 2 5 3 2 0 15 0 136. Xavier Worthy , KC 2 0 -2 1 1 5 0 137. KeAndre Lambert-Smith , LAC 2 0 -2 2 1 8 0 138. Marquez Valdes-Scantling , SF 2 0 -2 2 1 11 0 139. Jack Bech , LV 2 3 2 2 1 8 0 140. Zay Jones , ARI 1 1 0 2 1 6 0 141. John Metchie III , PHI 1 1 0 2 1 5 0 142. Tez Johnson , TB 1 0 -1 1 1 6 0 143. Ashton Dulin , IND 1 2 0 2 0 0 0 144. Kyle Williams , NE 1 2 1 2 1 8 0 145. Bryce Oliver , TEN 1 2 1 2 1 7 0 146. Alex Bachman , LV 1 0 -1 2 0 6 0 147. Derius Davis , LAC 1 0 0 2 0 0 0 148. Myles Price , MIN 0 -2 -2 2 0 0 0 149. Devin Duvernay , CHI 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 150. Xavier Gipson , NYJ 0 -2 -2 1 0 0 0 151. DeAndre Carter , CLE 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 152. Anthony Gould , IND 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 153. Charlie Jones , CIN 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 154. Cody White , SEA 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 155. Isaiah Williams , NYJ 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 156. Jamal Agnew , ATL 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 157. Kameron Johnson , TB 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 158. Jahdae Walker , CHI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 159. David Sills V , ATL 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 160. Konata Mumpfield , LAR 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 161. Darius Cooper , PHI 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 162. Mason Tipton , NO 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 163. Beaux Collins , NYG 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 164. Dareke Young , SEA 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 165. Jake Bobo , SEA 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 166. Allen Lazard , NYJ 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 167. Ryan Flournoy , DAL 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 168. Dominic Lovett , DET 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 169. Scotty Miller , PIT 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 170. Tai Felton , MIN 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 171. Russell Gage Jr. , SF 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 172. Simi Fehoko , ARI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 173. Xavier Weaver , ARI 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 174. Tim Jones , MIN 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 175. Skyy Moore , SF 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 176. David Moore , CAR 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 177. Gunner Olszewski , NYG 0 0 0 2 0 0 0 178. LaJohntay Wester , BAL 0 0 0 2 0 0 0
