Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Wide receiver adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for wide receivers:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Wide Receivers (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. Ja'Marr Chase , CIN 177 188 11 9 73 777 4 2. Chris Olave , NO 148 127 -21 9 56 672 4 3. Davante Adams , LAR 141 133 -8 8 37 575 8 4. George Pickens , DAL 137 161 25 9 42 592 6 5. Jaxon Smith-Njigba , SEA 133 177 44 8 49 694 2 6. Amon-Ra St. Brown , DET 130 165 36 8 49 552 4 7. Drake London , ATL 128 134 6 7 45 577 4 8. Puka Nacua , LAR 126 162 35 7 51 573 2 9. Troy Franklin , DEN 126 104 -21 9 39 556 5 10. Justin Jefferson , MIN 125 124 -1 8 44 581 4 11. Keenan Allen , LAC 124 126 2 9 46 533 4 12. Tetairoa McMillan , CAR 124 109 -15 9 40 591 4 13. Ladd McConkey , LAC 123 117 -6 9 47 562 3 14. Courtland Sutton , DEN 114 121 6 9 36 551 4 15. Michael Pittman Jr. , IND 114 146 32 9 47 519 3 16. Emeka Egbuka , TB 114 123 9 8 35 559 4 17. Rashid Shaheed , NO 113 104 -9 9 42 538 3 18. Wan'Dale Robinson , NYG 112 113 1 9 47 527 2 19. Rome Odunze , CHI 111 108 -3 8 36 527 4 20. Brian Thomas Jr. , JAC 105 86 -19 8 37 513 2 21. Jaylen Waddle , MIA 101 124 22 9 37 480 3 22. Deebo Samuel Sr. , WAS 101 108 7 8 40 392 3 23. Romeo Doubs , GB 100 104 4 8 30 469 4 24. Quentin Johnston , LAC 98 113 15 8 28 440 4 25. Zay Flowers , BAL 97 107 10 8 42 462 1 26. Nico Collins , HOU 94 91 -3 7 32 463 3 27. Tee Higgins , CIN 94 118 24 9 26 475 3 28. Hollywood Brown , KC 92 97 5 9 34 407 3 29. CeeDee Lamb , DAL 91 90 -1 6 32 457 2 30. DeVonta Smith , PHI 91 115 24 8 35 441 2 31. Stefon Diggs , NE 91 108 17 9 36 408 2 32. Elic Ayomanor , TEN 89 70 -19 9 31 451 2 33. Jerry Jeudy , CLE 89 48 -41 8 29 445 3 34. Marvin Harrison Jr. , ARI 87 98 11 8 30 415 3 35. Garrett Wilson , NYJ 84 100 16 6 35 405 1 36. DK Metcalf , PIT 83 106 23 8 29 350 3 37. DJ Moore , CHI 83 90 7 8 29 331 2 38. Jakobi Meyers , LV 80 68 -12 7 33 357 2 39. A.J. Brown , PHI 79 87 7 7 27 421 2 40. Khalil Shakir , BUF 79 96 18 8 38 333 1 41. Alec Pierce , IND 78 74 -3 7 20 470 2 42. Tre Tucker , LV 77 102 24 8 31 322 2 43. Xavier Worthy , KC 76 63 -13 7 26 332 2 44. Josh Downs , IND 75 82 7 8 31 315 2 45. Parker Washington , JAC 75 68 -7 8 25 395 1 46. Travis Hunter , JAC 75 64 -11 7 30 319 2 47. Jauan Jennings , SF 74 61 -13 7 25 331 3 48. Malik Washington , MIA 74 64 -10 9 30 256 1 49. Olamide Zaccheaus , CHI 73 64 -9 8 34 307 1 50. Dyami Brown , JAC 70 50 -21 7 20 294 3 51. Jordan Addison , MIN 68 72 5 5 21 303 3 52. Keon Coleman , BUF 68 67 0 8 25 310 2 53. Xavier Legette , CAR 67 50 -17 7 23 270 3 54. Jameson Williams , DET 67 75 8 8 23 352 1 55. Malik Nabers , NYG 67 57 -10 4 19 314 3 56. Kendrick Bourne , SF 66 76 10 8 29 328 1 57. Tyquan Thornton , KC 66 63 -3 9 13 353 3 58. Chimere Dike , TEN 65 54 -11 9 22 245 1 59. Kayshon Boutte , NE 63 96 33 9 16 309 3 60. Sterling Shepard , TB 61 59 -2 8 25 255 2 61. Jalen Nailor , MIN 60 41 -19 8 15 241 3 62. Marvin Mims Jr. , DEN 59 61 2 8 21 251 1 63. Isaiah Bond , CLE 57 24 -33 8 18 263 2 64. Rashee Rice , KC 56 67 11 3 20 182 2 65. Matthew Golden , GB 56 54 -2 8 20 240 1 66. Calvin Ridley , TEN 56 45 -11 6 21 306 1 67. Andrei Iosivas , CIN 55 47 -9 9 19 253 2 68. JuJu Smith-Schuster , KC 55 60 5 9 24 218 2 69. DeMario Douglas , NE 55 63 8 9 19 217 2 70. Calvin Austin III , PIT 54 53 -1 6 19 244 2 71. Darius Slayton , NYG 54 42 -11 7 19 264 1 72. Xavier Hutchinson , HOU 53 62 8 8 20 215 2 73. Jaylin Lane , WAS 51 36 -16 9 18 249 1 74. Michael Wilson , ARI 51 44 -8 8 18 251 1 75. Darnell Mooney , ATL 50 29 -21 6 16 270 1 76. Rashod Bateman , BAL 49 45 -4 8 17 247 1 77. Tyreek Hill , MIA 49 54 4 4 19 246 1 78. Mike Evans , TB 49 34 -15 4 14 274 1 79. Tory Horton , SEA 48 65 17 8 13 195 3 80. Cooper Kupp , SEA 48 57 10 7 20 236 1 81. Ricky Pearsall , SF 47 52 6 4 14 264 1 82. Hunter Renfrow , CAR 46 36 -10 6 17 181 2 83. Tez Johnson , TB 46 49 3 7 18 217 1 84. Jalen Tolbert , DAL 42 39 -3 9 13 191 2 85. Van Jefferson , TEN 42 31 -11 9 16 218 1 86. KaVontae Turpin , DAL 42 42 0 7 15 158 1 87. Ryan Flournoy , DAL 41 44 4 9 15 169 1 88. Mack Hollins , NE 41 54 14 9 15 175 1 89. Brandin Cooks , NO 40 36 -4 9 17 194 1 90. Jayden Higgins , HOU 39 42 2 8 14 172 1 91. Jaylin Noel , HOU 38 37 -1 8 13 162 1 92. Christian Kirk , HOU 38 28 -10 4 15 186 1 93. Terry McLaurin , WAS 36 39 4 4 11 189 1 94. Cedric Tillman , CLE 34 34 0 4 12 154 1 95. Josh Reynolds , NYJ 34 23 -10 5 11 186 1 96. Dontayvion Wicks , GB 33 26 -7 6 11 174 1 97. Joshua Palmer , BUF 33 37 4 6 11 181 1 98. Tyler Lockett , LV 3 0 -3 1 0 6 0 98. Tyler Lockett , TEN 29 23 -6 7 14 151 0 99. Pat Bryant , DEN 33 26 -7 9 11 145 1 100. Greg Dortch , ARI 32 30 -2 8 14 94 1 101. Luke McCaffrey , WAS 31 51 21 9 9 147 1 102. Jordan Whittington , LAR 30 25 -4 8 13 116 0 103. Chris Moore , WAS 30 31 2 8 9 143 1 104. Luther Burden III , CHI 29 37 7 7 13 119 0 105. Demarcus Robinson , SF 28 21 -7 6 10 146 1 106. Dont'e Thornton Jr. , LV 28 14 -14 7 8 181 0 107. Zay Jones , ARI 28 30 2 7 10 159 0 108. Tre Harris , LAC 28 31 3 9 11 125 1 109. Tyler Johnson , NYJ 26 35 8 7 9 135 1 110. DeAndre Hopkins , BAL 26 41 15 8 6 144 1 111. Adonai Mitchell , IND 26 22 -4 8 10 146 0 112. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine , MIA 26 18 -8 9 13 118 0 113. Ray-Ray McCloud III , ATL 23 12 -10 4 9 101 0 113. Ray-Ray McCloud III , NYG 1 2 0 1 1 7 0 114. Allen Lazard , NYJ 23 18 -6 6 6 78 2 115. Elijah Moore , BUF 23 25 2 7 6 100 0 116. Jahan Dotson , PHI 23 29 6 8 7 129 0 117. Casey Washington , ATL 23 15 -7 5 7 139 0 118. Chris Godwin , TB 23 11 -11 2 8 117 1 119. Jimmy Horn Jr. , CAR 22 17 -5 5 6 76 0 120. Roman Wilson , PIT 21 24 3 8 9 97 0 121. Kalif Raymond , DET 21 22 1 8 10 90 0 122. Lil'Jordan Humphrey , NYG 19 10 -10 3 5 92 1 123. Arian Smith , NYJ 19 10 -9 8 7 94 0 124. Devaughn Vele , NO 19 15 -4 8 6 74 1 125. Jamari Thrash , CLE 19 21 2 8 9 97 0 126. Adam Thielen , MIN 19 12 -7 8 7 95 0 127. Brycen Tremayne , CAR 19 22 3 9 8 100 0 128. Savion Williams , GB 19 18 0 8 6 37 0 129. Jalin Hyatt , NYG 18 5 -13 6 5 105 0 130. Tutu Atwell , LAR 17 26 10 6 5 92 0 131. Tyrell Shavers , BUF 16 12 -5 8 7 85 0 132. Jack Bech , LV 16 14 -1 8 6 72 0 133. Isaac TeSlaa , DET 15 20 5 8 2 53 1 134. Christian Watson , GB 15 20 6 2 4 91 0 135. Ashton Dulin , IND 14 12 -2 8 4 65 0 136. KhaDarel Hodge , ATL 14 6 -8 7 5 72 0 137. Xavier Smith , LAR 13 11 -2 8 5 68 0 138. Beaux Collins , NYG 13 5 -8 9 3 53 1 139. Noah Brown , WAS 12 7 -6 2 4 61 0 140. Tylan Wallace , BAL 12 15 2 8 3 41 1 141. D'Wayne Eskridge , MIA 12 8 -4 9 4 67 0 142. Tim Patrick , JAC 11 16 5 7 4 48 1 143. Marquez Valdes-Scantling , SF 11 8 -3 5 4 67 0 144. Mitchell Tinsley , CIN 11 14 3 9 2 53 1 145. Braxton Berrios , HOU 11 10 -1 3 5 51 0 146. Jayden Reed , GB 10 14 3 2 3 47 0 147. Kyle Williams , NE 10 4 -7 9 4 51 0 148. David Sills V , ATL 10 5 -5 8 4 51 0 149. Skyy Moore , SF 10 8 -2 9 3 50 0 150. Jalen Coker , CAR 10 9 -1 3 4 56 0 151. Curtis Samuel , BUF 10 14 4 4 3 40 0 152. Devontez Walker , BAL 10 21 11 5 1 29 1 153. Kameron Johnson , TB 9 17 7 8 3 45 0 154. Malik Heath , GB 9 15 5 8 4 45 0 155. Devin Duvernay , CHI 9 1 -8 8 1 26 1 156. Ryan Miller , TB 8 11 3 8 2 41 0 157. Gage Larvadain , CLE 8 5 -3 4 3 36 0 158. KeAndre Lambert-Smith , LAC 7 1 -6 6 2 39 0 159. Ben Skowronek , PIT 7 12 5 8 2 21 0 160. Justin Watson , HOU 7 6 -1 2 2 27 0 161. Isaiah Williams , NYJ 7 7 0 6 3 23 0 162. Trent Sherfield , DEN 7 5 -2 9 3 30 0 163. Konata Mumpfield , LAR 6 9 3 8 2 19 0 164. Robbie Chosen , WAS 6 8 2 1 3 27 0 165. John Metchie III , PHI 6 6 0 7 4 19 0 166. Mason Tipton , NO 5 0 -5 8 1 19 0 167. Jordan Watkins , SF 4 5 0 2 2 27 0 168. Tahj Washington , MIA 4 0 -4 2 1 27 0 169. Malachi Corley , CLE 4 8 4 4 2 10 0 170. Gunner Olszewski , NYG 4 9 6 9 0 11 0 171. Dareke Young , SEA 4 7 3 6 1 24 0 172. Scotty Miller , PIT 3 2 -2 6 1 12 0 173. Jason Brownlee , KC 3 0 -3 5 0 7 0 174. Cody White , SEA 3 13 10 2 1 18 0 175. Tay Martin , WAS 3 4 1 3 2 15 0 176. Jake Bobo , SEA 3 4 1 6 1 16 0 177. Austin Trammell , JAC 3 0 -3 1 0 12 0 178. Jared Wayne , HOU 3 4 1 1 1 15 0 179. Cedrick Wilson , MIA 3 3 0 2 1 11 0 180. Nikko Remigio , KC 3 4 2 9 1 9 0 181. Alex Bachman , LV 2 2 0 7 1 13 0
