Expected fantasy points (xFP) strips away player talent and efficiency and focuses solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (or expected total).
Wide receiver adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average 2-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Below is the 2025 xFP leaderboard for wide receivers:
2025 xFP & xTD leaderboards 2025 xFP: Wide Receivers (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Rec Yds TD 1. Ja'Marr Chase , CIN 272 265 -7 14 112 1210 6 2. Amon-Ra St. Brown , DET 260 284 25 15 95 1101 9 3. Chris Olave , NO 255 242 -13 15 93 1189 7 4. Jaxon Smith-Njigba , SEA 253 329 76 15 90 1192 7 5. Puka Nacua , LAR 247 333 86 14 97 1126 5 6. Davante Adams , LAR 237 223 -14 14 61 950 13 7. George Pickens , DAL 232 278 46 15 77 1053 8 8. Justin Jefferson , MIN 221 176 -45 15 76 1013 7 9. Wan'Dale Robinson , NYG 210 196 -15 15 86 976 4 10. Emeka Egbuka , TB 210 189 -21 15 69 1032 6 11. Nico Collins , HOU 206 218 12 14 62 982 7 12. Courtland Sutton , DEN 205 210 6 15 64 957 8 13. Tetairoa McMillan , CAR 200 199 0 15 64 950 7 14. A.J. Brown , PHI 191 209 18 14 66 952 5 15. CeeDee Lamb , DAL 190 190 0 12 63 897 6 16. Troy Franklin , DEN 187 171 -16 15 59 866 6 17. Michael Wilson , ARI 186 180 -6 15 62 889 6 18. Zay Flowers , BAL 185 201 16 15 76 855 3 19. Ladd McConkey , LAC 178 177 -1 15 64 825 5 20. DK Metcalf , PIT 176 187 11 15 61 770 6 21. DeVonta Smith , PHI 175 189 14 15 64 838 5 22. Jaylen Waddle , MIA 173 193 21 15 62 838 4 23. Michael Pittman Jr. , IND 172 196 23 15 72 782 4 24. Keenan Allen , LAC 172 169 -3 15 68 747 5 25. Rome Odunze , CHI 172 146 -26 12 56 811 6 26. Drake London , ATL 172 183 11 10 61 790 5 27. Jakobi Meyers , JAC 89 90 1 7 29 368 3 27. Jakobi Meyers , LV 80 68 -12 7 33 357 2 28. Jameson Williams , DET 165 201 36 15 56 836 3 29. Deebo Samuel Sr. , WAS 164 173 9 14 64 628 4 30. Rashid Shaheed , NO 113 104 -9 9 42 538 3 30. Rashid Shaheed , SEA 48 49 1 7 15 216 1 31. Romeo Doubs , GB 156 156 0 15 47 718 6 32. Stefon Diggs , NE 155 181 26 15 63 709 4 33. DJ Moore , CHI 154 166 13 15 49 650 5 34. Jerry Jeudy , CLE 151 106 -45 15 52 765 4 35. Jauan Jennings , SF 150 154 4 13 47 650 6 36. Rashee Rice , KC 146 150 4 8 57 508 5 37. Tee Higgins , CIN 146 183 37 13 42 719 5 38. Jordan Addison , MIN 145 121 -24 12 46 658 5 39. Brian Thomas Jr. , JAC 144 123 -21 12 47 709 4 40. Tre Tucker , LV 143 146 3 15 53 633 3 41. Parker Washington , JAC 140 146 6 14 42 671 4 42. Khalil Shakir , BUF 139 157 18 15 66 580 2 43. Quentin Johnston , LAC 138 156 19 13 43 624 5 44. Marvin Harrison Jr. , ARI 135 128 -7 11 41 616 5 45. Alec Pierce , IND 133 154 21 13 35 737 4 46. Chimere Dike , TEN 129 110 -18 15 45 478 4 47. Xavier Worthy , KC 128 110 -18 13 47 588 3 48. Josh Downs , IND 125 121 -3 14 53 544 3 49. Elic Ayomanor , TEN 120 95 -25 14 43 607 3 50. Hollywood Brown , KC 114 127 13 14 43 499 3 51. Darnell Mooney , ATL 112 72 -41 13 37 581 3 52. Mack Hollins , NE 112 113 1 15 39 549 3 53. Adonai Mitchell , IND 26 22 -4 8 10 146 0 53. Adonai Mitchell , NYJ 86 61 -25 6 26 406 3 54. Olamide Zaccheaus , CHI 109 85 -24 15 47 447 2 55. Malik Washington , MIA 106 103 -3 15 43 364 2 56. Xavier Legette , CAR 106 83 -23 13 36 477 4 57. Jayden Higgins , HOU 104 102 -2 15 35 484 3 58. Cooper Kupp , SEA 101 110 9 14 40 461 2 59. Jalen Nailor , MIN 98 93 -5 15 26 406 5 60. Christian Watson , GB 95 110 15 9 24 473 4 61. Keon Coleman , BUF 92 94 1 12 32 434 3 62. Terry McLaurin , WAS 91 93 2 8 27 451 3 63. Sterling Shepard , TB 91 82 -9 13 36 389 2 64. Ryan Flournoy , DAL 89 102 14 15 31 374 3 65. Garrett Wilson , NYJ 88 100 11 7 37 435 1 66. Darius Slayton , NYG 88 84 -4 12 31 462 2 67. Andrei Iosivas , CIN 87 79 -9 15 30 413 2 68. Mike Evans , TB 87 67 -19 6 25 441 3 69. Tyquan Thornton , KC 86 81 -6 14 17 485 3 70. Kayshon Boutte , NE 85 120 35 13 22 405 4 71. Kendrick Bourne , SF 82 89 6 14 35 412 1 72. Isaiah Bond , CLE 82 49 -33 14 23 409 3 73. Tez Johnson , TB 82 85 3 14 28 345 2 74. Xavier Hutchinson , HOU 82 80 -2 15 30 342 3 75. Marvin Mims Jr. , DEN 81 86 5 13 30 335 1 76. Luther Burden III , CHI 81 93 12 13 38 353 1 77. Calvin Austin III , PIT 80 72 -9 13 31 386 2 78. Van Jefferson , TEN 80 62 -18 15 29 417 2 79. Ricky Pearsall , SF 80 75 -5 8 25 409 2 80. Dyami Brown , JAC 77 48 -29 13 21 328 3 81. Dontayvion Wicks , GB 75 74 -1 13 26 373 2 82. Christian Kirk , HOU 75 55 -20 11 28 324 2 83. Travis Hunter , JAC 75 64 -11 7 30 319 2 84. DeMario Douglas , NE 74 89 15 15 26 300 2 85. KaVontae Turpin , DAL 73 68 -5 13 25 255 2 86. Matthew Golden , GB 73 66 -7 12 25 332 1 87. Pat Bryant , DEN 73 68 -5 14 29 354 1 88. JuJu Smith-Schuster , KC 71 66 -5 15 30 285 2 89. Chris Godwin , TB 69 57 -11 7 26 304 2 90. Tyler Lockett , LV 39 40 1 8 17 184 1 90. Tyler Lockett , TEN 29 23 -6 7 14 151 0 91. Devaughn Vele , NO 67 66 -1 13 22 317 2 92. Malik Nabers , NYG 67 57 -10 4 19 314 3 93. Rashod Bateman , BAL 66 54 -12 12 22 313 2 94. John Metchie III , NYJ 59 54 -5 7 26 240 1 94. John Metchie III , PHI 6 6 0 7 4 19 0 95. Greg Dortch , ARI 64 75 11 12 26 210 1 96. Jaylin Lane , WAS 61 49 -12 15 19 303 2 97. Cedric Tillman , CLE 60 52 -8 11 20 293 2 98. Calvin Ridley , TEN 57 47 -10 7 21 314 1 99. Jaylin Noel , HOU 56 52 -5 15 21 222 2 100. DeAndre Hopkins , BAL 56 67 11 15 18 299 1 101. Tre Harris , LAC 55 62 7 15 23 264 1 102. Isaac TeSlaa , DET 54 59 5 15 11 191 4 103. Jalen Coker , CAR 53 70 17 9 20 271 1 104. David Sills V , ATL 53 40 -13 15 19 253 2 105. Joshua Palmer , BUF 51 49 -2 10 19 274 1 106. Tory Horton , SEA 51 65 14 8 13 211 3 107. Demarcus Robinson , SF 51 48 -3 12 16 258 1 108. Tyreek Hill , MIA 49 54 4 4 19 246 1 109. Brandin Cooks , BUF 9 2 -6 4 2 60 0 109. Brandin Cooks , NO 40 36 -4 10 17 194 1 110. Mitchell Tinsley , CIN 47 32 -15 15 11 214 2 111. Hunter Renfrow , CAR 46 36 -10 6 17 181 2 112. Tim Patrick , JAC 45 50 5 14 13 176 2 113. Jalen Tolbert , DAL 44 39 -4 11 13 200 2 114. Jahan Dotson , PHI 42 43 1 15 15 227 1 115. Jordan Whittington , LAR 41 36 -5 15 19 165 0 116. Jack Bech , LV 41 42 2 15 17 192 1 117. Chris Moore , WAS 40 36 -4 12 11 192 2 118. Kalif Raymond , DET 40 57 17 13 19 183 0 119. Isaiah Williams , NYJ 38 44 6 13 19 155 0 120. Adam Thielen , MIN 28 17 -11 11 12 136 0 120. Adam Thielen , PIT 9 12 3 3 5 45 0 121. Dont'e Thornton Jr. , LV 37 20 -17 13 10 239 0 122. Lil'Jordan Humphrey , DEN 17 21 4 5 7 73 0 122. Lil'Jordan Humphrey , NYG 19 10 -10 3 5 92 1 123. Roman Wilson , PIT 36 39 3 12 14 174 1 124. Allen Lazard , NYJ 36 23 -13 10 9 136 2 125. Josh Reynolds , NYJ 34 23 -10 5 11 186 1 126. Tyrell Shavers , BUF 33 40 7 15 13 174 0 127. Jayden Reed , GB 32 40 8 5 13 130 1 128. Zay Jones , ARI 31 30 -1 8 10 164 1 129. Elijah Moore , BUF 31 29 -2 9 10 134 0 130. Luke McCaffrey , WAS 31 51 21 9 9 147 1 131. Kyle Williams , NE 30 44 13 15 8 163 1 132. Tyler Johnson , NYJ 29 36 7 11 11 147 1 133. Xavier Smith , LAR 29 36 7 14 12 150 0 134. Mason Tipton , NO 29 20 -9 14 11 120 0 135. Konata Mumpfield , LAR 29 22 -7 15 10 145 1 136. Jalin Hyatt , NYG 29 9 -20 8 8 159 1 137. Nick Westbrook-Ikhine , MIA 29 20 -9 14 14 132 0 138. Treylon Burks , WAS 28 24 -4 6 8 134 1 139. Isaiah Hodgins , NYG 26 26 -1 5 8 120 1 140. Malachi Corley , CLE 26 24 -1 11 9 59 0 141. Arian Smith , NYJ 26 12 -14 14 8 124 1 142. Savion Williams , GB 25 26 0 12 8 60 0 143. Jimmy Horn Jr. , CAR 25 23 -2 11 8 86 0 144. Ray-Ray McCloud III , ATL 23 12 -10 4 9 101 0 144. Ray-Ray McCloud III , NYG 2 2 -1 2 1 16 0 145. Gage Larvadain , CLE 23 12 -11 11 9 109 0 146. Casey Washington , ATL 23 15 -7 7 7 139 0 147. Marquez Valdes-Scantling , PIT 11 11 -1 3 2 49 1 147. Marquez Valdes-Scantling , SF 11 8 -3 5 4 67 0 148. Brycen Tremayne , CAR 22 25 3 14 10 114 0 149. Jamari Thrash , CLE 20 21 0 9 10 102 0 150. Gabe Davis , BUF 20 16 -4 4 6 78 1 151. Xavier Weaver , ARI 20 9 -10 8 6 95 1 152. Dylan Drummond , ATL 20 11 -8 7 7 81 1 153. Tutu Atwell , LAR 19 28 9 8 6 107 0 154. Curtis Samuel , BUF 17 21 4 6 6 81 0 155. Ashton Dulin , IND 17 20 3 10 5 71 0 156. Tylan Wallace , BAL 17 15 -2 13 4 65 1 157. Noah Brown , WAS 17 13 -4 4 5 86 1 158. Devontez Walker , BAL 16 25 9 10 3 73 1 159. Austin Trammell , JAC 16 8 -8 6 5 86 0 160. KhaDarel Hodge , ATL 16 6 -10 12 5 85 0 161. Robbie Chosen , WAS 14 10 -4 3 5 75 0 162. Kameron Johnson , TB 14 18 4 15 5 64 0 163. Kevin Austin Jr. , NO 14 10 -4 6 7 66 0 164. Skyy Moore , SF 14 14 0 15 5 73 0 165. Beaux Collins , NYG 13 5 -8 9 3 53 1 166. Xavier Restrepo , TEN 13 7 -6 2 3 54 1 167. KeAndre Lambert-Smith , LAC 13 12 -1 8 4 55 0 168. D'Wayne Eskridge , MIA 12 8 -4 13 4 67 0 169. Ben Skowronek , PIT 11 17 6 15 4 44 0 170. Braxton Berrios , HOU 11 10 -1 4 5 51 0 171. Devin Duvernay , CHI 11 5 -6 15 2 37 1 172. Gunner Olszewski , NYG 11 13 2 14 1 27 1 173. Malik Heath , GB 11 15 4 11 5 52 0
