Making tough lineup decisions each week can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process.
My weekly matchup rankings provide a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, listing all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying on seasonal totals, we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
Adjusted fantasy points allowed (or Adj. FPA) reflects how far above or below players' weekly fantasy averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
All references to fantasy points are for PPR scoring, unless otherwise noted.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers (versus Detroit Lions). A hit-or-miss fantasy quarterback since returning from the shoulder issue that cost him Week 12, twice exceeding 20 points but also twice finishing shy of four points, Purdy at least aligns for a brilliant fantasy-championship matchup. The opposing Lions have struggled mightily against the pass since losing cornerback Carlton Davis III to a fractured jaw in Week 15. Caleb Williams managed two of his five best fantasy scores in Davis absences for the Lions, while Josh Allen scored more than half of his 41.28 points in Week 15 following Davis' early departure. That Purdy's 49ers are underdogs in a game that began the week with the highest over/under (50½) also suggests he'll need to throw a good amount.
Others to like:
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (versus Carolina Panthers)
Bryce Young, Panthers (at Buccaneers)
Matchup to avoid: Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs (at Pittsburgh Steelers). Though his 19.5 fantasy points per game over the past eight weeks ranks eighth among quarterbacks, he has his work cut out for him in a tough road matchup in a short, unusual week. The opposing Steelers have been one of the league's best defenses against quarterbacks, but especially so at home, where their 12.7 fantasy points per game allowed are fifth fewest.
Weekend matchup to avoid: Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins (at Cleveland Browns). In addition to their rankings in terms of adjusted fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, the Browns haven't seen many passing attempts this season, with their 30.2 allowed being sixth fewest. With the Dolphins favored by roughly a touchdown in a game with a low over/under (40.5), he shouldn't be expected to be a focal point of this contest.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: Bucky Irving, Buccaneers (versus Panthers). He scored a season-best 27.5 PPR fantasy points against the Panthers four weeks ago, in a game in which four of his 25 rushing attempts went for double-digit yardage. Irving sustained a hip injury on a kickoff return in that game, which has kept him off special teams since, and he additionally dealt with back stiffness the following week. Nevertheless, he has looked plenty spry the past two weeks, averaging 6.0 yards per carry. The Panthers, meanwhile, have been one of the worst defenses against running backs this season, and especially poor recently. The past four No. 1 backs to face them have averaged 21.3 rushing attempts and 20.9 PPR fantasy points.
Others to like:
Stephania Bell and Field Yates rave over Jonathan Taylor's Week 16 performance vs. the Titans.
Matchup to avoid: Chuba Hubbard, Panthers (at Buccaneers). Where Irving was the star of these teams' Week 13 meeting, Hubbard was a bust, his 2.3 PPR fantasy points his second-worst score all season. Strangely, the Panthers weren't playing significantly from behind in that game -- he has averaged 10.2 PPR fantasy points in the team's six games in which they ran at least 20 plays while behind by 12 or more points, compared to 20.2 in the other nine (the latter of which includes Week 13) -- underscoring the Buccaneers' strong defensive play against the run. They haven't had a running back exceed 17 points against them since Week 9, and Kareem Hunt required 28 touches just to get to 18.7 points in that game.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers (at Minnesota Vikings). Deciphering the Packers' receiving pecking order has been largely an exercise in futility. Seven of the 13 times one of their wide receivers has been started in at least 30% of ESPN leagues, he has been held beneath 10 PPR fantasy points. Meanwhile, four of their best seven wide receiver scores came from players started in less than 10%. From that perspective, Reed might be no more likely to capitalize upon this matchup than Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson or even Dontayvion Wicks. With Watson nursing a knee injury, Reed's team-leading 36.4 PPR fantasy points and five red zone targets over the past five weeks signal a good opportunity. The opposing Vikings have surrendered the most points per game to wide receivers over the past five weeks, and Reed himself had 27.1 points when these teams squared off in Week 4.
Others to like:
Terry McLaurin, Washington Commanders (versus Atlanta Falcons)
Jauan Jennings, 49ers (versus Lions)
Stephania Bell and Field Yates discuss if Jameson Williams is worth a fantasy start in Week 17.
Matchup to avoid: Jameson Williams, Lions (at 49ers). The Lions' passing game as a whole matches up poorly against the 49ers, the league's No. 3 pass defense (using yards allowed for the season), but Williams is their individual most on the fantasy start/sit bubble as a result. He has certainly had his moments this season, but he's too reliant upon big plays, as four of his five games of 15-plus PPR fantasy points were those in which he had multiple 20-yard receptions, whereas he has averaged 9.3 points when he hasn't done so. The 49ers, meanwhile, have surrendered a league-low 31 receptions of 20-plus yards all year, and their 31% completion rate allowed on throws at least 15 yards downfield is second-least in the league.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Chig Okonkwo, Titans (at Jaguars). A popular sleeper entering 2023, Okonkwo began Week 17 available in more than 90% of ESPN leagues despite setting personal bests with his 10, and then 11, targets the past two weeks. He turned those into a combined 33.0 PPR fantasy points while facing the second-worst (Cincinnati Bengals, Week 15) and worst (Colts, Week 16) defenses against tight ends in terms of adjusted fantasy points allowed for both the season and the past five weeks. The Jaguars aren't quite as soft a matchup -- they're 26th for the season and 21st over the past five weeks -- but with all their struggles against the pass and Okonkwo's soaring target share, he's well worth the add if you're in a pinch at the position.
Matchup to avoid: Hunter Henry, New England Patriots (versus Los Angeles Chargers). He has been a plenty serviceable fantasy tight end this season, ranking ninth in PPR fantasy points (145.4) and fourth in target share at the position (20.9%), but a lack of touchdown production has made him tough to trust each week. This is a time to fade Henry, as the Chargers have been the toughest defense against tight ends for the season in both adjusted fantasy points allowed (minus-3.7) and PPR fantasy points per target (1.40). Travis Kelce (Week 4) and Mark Andrews (Week 12) are the only tight ends to have exceeded 12 points against them all year.