The fantasy football playoffs are nearly here, and with them comes an increasing level of stress related to our lineup-setting process. That's especially true when it comes to defenses, where, if you haven't landed upon one of this season's unexpectedly productive units -- the Denver Broncos, Houston Texans or Minnesota Vikings -- you probably aren't feeling comfy-cozy about that particular lineup slot.
Fret not, however, as if you're in that position of still patching the position together week to week, there's plenty of recent evidence that a streaming strategy can be successful during these critical weeks. Using 2021-23 results, among top-10 D/STs through the first 12 weeks of the season, only 43% managed a top-10 average during the final six weeks. Volatility at this lineup spot remains the name of the game as much in Weeks 13-18 as in the three months that precede them.
With that in mind, let's refresh the "D/ST road map" to cover the season's critical final six weeks, to help steer you through your weekly lineup decisions.
Opponents to exploit with D/STs
From my own assessment of these teams' offenses, but also accounting for schedule-adjusted, points-allowed data from the past five weeks and the season as a whole, here are the eight most fantasy-friendly matchups for a defense:
1. New York Giants: added 4.5 points to a D/ST's score on average over the past five weeks (second most), and 3.4 points on average for the season (fifth most)
2. Las Vegas Raiders: +2.4 points past five (6th), +5.0 points season (3rd)
3. Dallas Cowboys: +3.8 points past five (3rd), +2.2 points season (6th)
4. Tennessee Titans: +2.7 points past five (4th), +5.0 points season (2nd)
5. New England Patriots: +2.4 points past five (5th), +4.4 points season (4th)
6. Seattle Seahawks: +5.2 points past five (most), +2.0 points season (9th)
7. Cleveland Browns: +0.5 points past five (12th), +5.3 points season (most)
8. Chicago Bears: +2.2 points past five (8th), +1.8 points season (10th)
Other plus-matchup offenses: Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers, Indianapolis Colts.
Opponents to avoid with D/STs
1. Baltimore Ravens: subtracted 6.3 from a D/ST's score on average over the past five weeks (league's best), and 6.9 points on average for the season (also best)
2. Detroit Lions: -5.1 points past five (2nd best), -4.9 season (2nd best)
3. Buffalo Bills: -4.6 past five (3rd), -3.3 season (4th)
4. Green Bay Packers: -4.5 past five (4th), -3.9 season (3rd)
5. Philadelphia Eagles: -3.3 past five (7th), -0.9 season (12th)
6. Los Angeles Rams: -3.6 past five (5th), -1.3 season (8th)
7. Washington Commanders: -0.9 past five (15th), -2.3 season (5th)
8. Los Angeles Chargers: -1.2 past five (12th), -0.8 season (14th)
Other bad-matchup offenses: San Francisco 49ers, Cincinnati Bengals, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
The D/STs to lock in for the duration
NOTE: All D/ST recommendations are among those that began the week available in at least 50% of ESPN leagues.
At this critical stage of the season, there's no true "locked-in" defense. Across the final six weeks, no team has more than three remaining matchups against my top eight exploitable offenses listed above.
That said, the Colts, one of those defenses with three top-eight matchups (the Bengals and Jaguars are the others), have a fantasy playoffs schedule that warrants special mention. Once their Week 14 bye passes -- that's the biggest obstacle remaining on their schedule -- they face nothing but middling or great matchups. In the final three weeks, in fact, they face the Titans, Giants and Jaguars.
Week 13 D/ST recommendations
Cowboys (vs. NYG): Though one of this season's most disappointing units, the Cowboys are coming off a 19-point game, helped by the returns of Micah Parsons and DaRon Bland. Exploit this short-week matchup against the reeling Giants.
Commanders (vs. TEN): They've been a good matchups-driven defense, with an 8.6-point average against the season's bottom-eight schedule-adjusted offenses.
Colts (@NE): Defenses that have faced the Patriots have scored in double digits in six of the past 10 weeks.
Avoid: The Eagles, fantasy's No. 1 defense over the past six weeks (11.7 points per game), draw a must-avoid road matchup against the Ravens. It's also wise to avoid the 49ers, who visit the Bills, and the Miami Dolphins, who play in Green Bay.
Week 14 D/ST recommendations
New Orleans Saints (@NYG): Though they've scored five or fewer fantasy points in each of their past eight games, this will be the most favorable matchup they've drawn since their 16-point outburst against the Panthers in Week 1.
Buccaneers (vs. LV): They've been one of the most matchup-driven defenses this season, highlighted by a 17-point game against Spencer Rattler and the Saints in Week 6 and 11 points this past week against the Giants.
Arizona Cardinals (vs. SEA): Believe it or not, the Cardinals are riding a three-game streak of double-digit fantasy point totals.
Avoid: Putting aside the six teams on bye, a group that includes the over-50%-rostered Ravens, the Lions are the defense that should most be avoided. They host the Packers, against whom they scored only six fantasy points in Week 9.
Week 15 D/ST recommendations
Atlanta Falcons (@LV): They cooled badly before their Week 11 bye, but if the rest helped, they could be a strong matchups candidate this and the next week.
Bengals (@TEN): Another defensive disappointment, the Bengals did manage 7, 15 and 11 fantasy points in recent favorable matchups against the Giants (Week 6), Browns (Week 7) and Raiders (Week 9).
Cardinals (vs. NE): In addition to this matchup, it's not unthinkable they could be a three-in-a-row consideration, with a road date in Carolina next up in Week 16. That'll depend upon how Bryce Young fares these next couple of weeks.
Avoid: Again, the Lions are the defense of concern, though at least they're at home for a tough assignment against the Bills. The Pittsburgh Steelers (@PHI) and 49ers (vs. LAR) are other defenses that could be aligned for disappointments.
Week 16 D/ST recommendations
Falcons (vs. NYG): They've got one of the wider home/road splits, averaging 3.7 points more at home than on the road.
Jaguars (@LV): Though one of the season's worst-performing defenses, they've had their moments over the past month-plus, including an 11-point effort against the Patriots in Week 7.
Buccaneers (@DAL): Cowboys opponents have totaled 41 fantasy points from their defenses in three games since Dak Prescott's season-ending injury.
Avoid: This week, it's the Steelers who draw the must-avoid road matchup against the Ravens -- though it's fair to point out it was the Steelers who were the only defense to exceed 3 fantasy points against the Ravens this season (9, Week 11). Additionally, the Eagles (@WAS) and Broncos (@LAC) have unappealing matchups.
Week 17 D/ST recommendations
Colts (@NYG): Fantasy managers might thrive simply picking defenses that face the Giants, and those who face them from Weeks 13-17 are all currently available in more than half of ESPN leagues.
Saints (vs. LV): The fewest fantasy points any defense has scored in a game against the Raiders this season is 5, and nine of 11 have scored at least 8 points.
Chargers (@NE) or Bears (vs. SEA): They're both close to 50% rostered, but both will surely rank among the top streamers for championship week.
Avoid: The Texans host the Ravens on Christmas night, in what'll be their second consecutive short week. It's also best to avoid the 49ers (vs. DET) and Vikings (vs. GB) wherever possible.
Week 18 D/ST recommendations
Chargers (@LV): For those still in championship matchups, the Chargers face a weak offense and might still be in the playoff-seeding hunt come Week 18.
Commanders (@DAL): The NFC playoff race figures to be more competitive than the AFC come Week 18, and the Cowboys don't seem likely to reverse their status as one of the best matchups for D/STs down the stretch.
Rams (vs. SEA): Before their Sunday night stinker against the Eagles in Week 12, the Rams had averaged 11.5 fantasy points over their previous six games.
Avoid: Playoff implications will have a lot to say about Week 18 matchups to avoid -- teams that have clinched and will be resting players aren't must-avoid opponents -- but if the Vikings-Lions game in Detroit has any bearing on NFC seeding, the Vikings will be a defense to avoid.