When it comes to the formula for football success, South Carolina head coach Steve Spurrier often quotes an adage passed down to him by Pepper Rodgers, who said coaches are only as good as their players and their schedule.
The same rule applies in fantasy football. It's great to stock a team with quality players, but it is better to stock a team with quality players who have schedules that bode well for their success.
This is especially true at the wide receiver position, as the one-on-one nature of wideout-cornerback matchups can make the difference between a game-winning-caliber performance and one that will bring about a depressing loss.
So which fantasy wide receivers have the most favorable schedules in 2013? And are they capable of taking advantage of those matchups?
As we start, it helps to take a quick look at how schedule strengths are measured. In my 2013 Fantasy Football Draft Guide, cornerbacks are graded with a color-coded matchup rating system. Red-rated cornerbacks are among the top third at their position and thus tend to be the matchups one wants to avoid if possible. Yellow-rated cornerbacks rate in the middle third of the league and thus are solid positional battles for wideouts. Green-rated cornerbacks are those in the bottom third of the league and therefore are the most favorable matchups from a wide receiver's perspective.
The guide then reviews which cornerback a wide receiver is slated to face each week and assigns a point total based on the color grade. Red-rated matchups give zero points, yellow-rated matchups award one point and green-rated matchups provide two points. This means the higher the wide receiver's matchup total, the more favorable his schedule is likely to be. Anything close to 10 points is considered a very difficult schedule, while 18-20 points serves as the bar noting an extremely positive set of matchups.
Let's take a closer look at the top candidates to find out which ones have the best matchups this season.
Dez Bryant (17 matchup points)/Miles Austin (18 matchup points)
Bryant's matchup point total ranks tied for 12th-best in the league, and that is an almost unfair edge given how dominant he was last year against any level of cornerback competition. His 11.1 yards per attempt against rated corners (cornerbacks of all color grades) was tied for third-best among all receivers and was tops among wideouts with at least 50 targets against that level of competition.
Austin wasn't quite as adept against rated cornerbacks (8.6 YPA, ranked 31st), but he did torch green-rated cornerbacks to the tune of 10.8 YPA. A number of that caliber should be a big help, since Austin has a 2013 schedule that contains five matchups against green-rated cornerbacks.
Another beneficiary here will be Tony Romo, as this is one of many reasons he has the opportunity to end the year as a top-five fantasy quarterback.
Dwayne Bowe (20 matchup points)
Bowe looks to have everything going for him. He joins a very receiver-friendly Andy Reid offense and goes from one of the worst vertical quarterbacks in the NFL (Matt Cassel, 9.2 vertical YPA, tied for 33rd) to one of the best (Alex Smith, 13.3 vertical YPA, ranked third). Bowe also has the most favorable schedule of any starting wide receiver.
This all sounds great, but it comes with one caveat: Last year, Bowe managed to post a meager 6.6 YPA when facing rated cornerbacks (his ranking tied for 63rd). While some of the blame for this poor number can be placed on the arms of the mediocre Chiefs quarterbacks last year, Bowe wasn't that much better in this metric in 2011 (6.8 YPA on 87 targets). Those numbers do put a bit of a damper on what is otherwise a remarkable confluence of favorable factors.
Sidney Rice (19 matchup points)
Last year, Rice obliterated rated cornerbacks. His 11.7 YPA versus that matchup caliber ranked second among qualifying wide receivers. Even more amazing is Rice's composite 11.1 YPA against red- and yellow-rated cornerbacks. Only one wide receiver posted a higher YPA mark in that category on at least 30 targets (Cecil Shorts). This trait already puts defensive teams at a huge disadvantage when facing Rice, and they will be even harder pressed to deal with him now that the Seahawks have added Percy Harvin to their receiving corps. If Seattle starts to pass the ball a bit more often this year, Rice could be a WR3 candidate who posts WR2 (and maybe even WR1) fantasy point totals.
Julio Jones (19 matchup points)
Jones was superb against rated cornerbacks in general (9.8 YPA, tied for 14th) but was especially dangerous when matched up against green-rated corners (12.8 YPA). This trait should make Jones one of the highest-upside wide receivers all season long; it will especially come in handy midseason. In Weeks 7-11, Jones has four green-rated cornerbacks over a five-game stretch. All total, he has six green-rated cornerbacks on his 2013 schedule, which is the highest number of matchups of that caliber among starting wide receivers.
Vincent Jackson (18 matchup points)
Jackson is something of a mystery. He racked up double-digit YPAs both when covered by a rated cornerback (11.2, tied for third-best) and when covered by anyone other than a rated cornerback (11.3, tied for 13th).
That sounds great, until noticing that Jackson also posted a 3.7 YPA when facing red- or yellow-rated cornerbacks, a total placing him 80th out of 86 qualifying wide receivers (48 total attempts needed to qualify).
This was not the case in past years, as Jackson ranked as the best matchup-buster wide receiver in the NFL during the 2011 season.
Whether this drop-off occurred because of a difference in quarterback play, because Jackson took a step back against tough coverage competition or something else, it is a definite concern given that, despite the high matchup points total, Jackson has two red-rated and seven yellow-rated cornerbacks on his 2013 schedule. If last year is an accurate indicator, it could mean Jackson will be one of the most volatile hit/miss wide receivers in fantasy football this year.