Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 18, which kicked off Saturday with a pair of AFC North matchups.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start moves, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
CAR-ATL | WAS-DAL | CHI-GB | HOU-TEN | JAX-IND | BUF-NE
NYG-PHI | NO-TB | KC-DEN | LAC-LV | SEA-LAR | MIA-NYJ | SF-ARI | MIN-DET
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons
Projected score: Falcons 26, Panthers 19
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Adam Thielen
Week 18 motivation: The Falcons need a win and a Buccaneers (playing at the same time) loss to make the playoffs, so they'll be a full go.
In their first game of the season without Chuba Hubbard, it was Raheem Blackshear (eight carries and zero targets on 35 snaps) who led the Panthers' backfield, with Mike Boone (two carries and two targets on 11 snaps) and Velus Jones Jr. (one carry on three snaps) also involved. None of the backs was productive, with Blackshear getting 20 yards on eight touches and Boone 11 yards on two touches. Carolina's backfield should be avoided this week against an Atlanta defense that has allowed only five RB rushing scores, third fewest for the season.
Over/under: 44.7 (4th highest)
Win probability: Falcons 74% (6th highest)
Washington Commanders @ Dallas Cowboys
Projected score: Commanders 26, Cowboys 18
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., Rico Dowdle, Terry McLaurin
Week 18 motivation: The Commanders are locked into the playoffs and will be either the sixth or seventh seed. They will play their starters as usual this week, per Dan Quinn.
With CeeDee Lamb sent to IR, it was Brandin Cooks who unsurprisingly took control as Dallas' top wide receiver last week. Cooks' eight targets against the Eagles were three more than any of his teammates. The bad news is that Cooks turned the usage into only 52 yards (still, a season high) and he hasn't reached 11 fantasy points in any game since Week 1. Similarly, Jalen Tolbert has scored in three straight games, but hasn't cleared 12 fantasy points in any game since Week 5. Cooks is the best flex option of this group, but this is a situation best avoided, especially against a Washington defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest WR fantasy points over the past eight games.
Over/under: 43.4 (8th highest)
Win probability: Commanders 76% (5th highest)
Chicago Bears @ Green Bay Packers
Projected score: Packers 27, Bears 16
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, DJ Moore, Keenan Allen
Week 18 motivation: The Packers are locked into the playoffs and will be either the sixth or seventh seed. They figure to play their starters as usual.
Caleb Williams production in his rookie season has been all over the map. He has produced 22-plus fantasy points in five games, but has also been held to single digits seven times. Williams sits at QB7 in passing attempts, but a shaky (albeit acceptable for a rookie) 6.5 YPA has him only QB18 in passing yards. He's QB7 in carries (78) and rushing yards (479), but has zero TDs on the ground. Williams, who has taken a league-high 67 sacks, sits QB17 in fantasy PPG and his boom/bust season is likely to end with a bust against a Green Bay defense that has allowed the third-fewest QB fantasy points this season. Williams did run for a career-high 70 yards when these teams met in Week 11, but failed to score a touchdown.
Over/under: 43.3 (9th highest)
Win probability: Packers 84% (3rd highest)
Houston Texans @ Tennessee Titans
Projected score: Titans 19, Texans 19
Lineup locks: None
Week 18 motivation: The Texans are locked into the No. 4 seed in the AFC, which means they have nothing to gain or lose in Week 18. As a result, C.J. Stroud, Joe Mixon, Nico Collins and Dalton Schultz (among others) are all very likely to rest for all or most of this game.
After producing 59 yards on 10 targets in Week 15 and 81 yards on 11 targets in Week 16, Chig Okonkwo put together another solid stat line in Week 17. The third-year TE had 42 yards on seven targets and added 17 yards on his first carry of the season. Okonkwo has now registered a 24%-plus target share in three straight games and has double-digit fantasy points in three straight and four of his past six. His massive role locks him in as a fringe TE1 against the Texans.
Over/under: 38.4 (15th highest)
Win probability: Titans 50% (16th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Indianapolis Colts
Projected score: Colts 23, Jaguars 21
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Brian Thomas Jr.
Week 18 motivation: No playoffs ahead for either team, but also no reason not to play their usual starters.
Anthony Richardson was sidelined in Week 17, but if he's active for the season finale, he's worth starting consideration. At least from a fantasy perspective, Richardson has been better as of late, producing 20-plus fantasy points in three of his past five outings (13-plus in all five). He's not much of a factor with his arm (under 180 yards in four straight games), but has made up for it with his legs (over 45 yards and a rushing score in three straight). The second-year QB has an exceptional Week 18 matchup against a Jaguars defense that has allowed the most passing yards, the fifth-most passing TDs (28), the sixth-most QB rushing yards and the most QB fantasy points this season.
Over/under: 43.5 (7th highest)
Win probability: Colts 58% (12th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Projected score: Bills 21, Patriots 21
Lineup locks: None
Week 18 motivation: The Bills have locked up the No. 2 seed in the AFC, which means they have nothing to gain or lose in Week 18. As a result, Josh Allen, James Cook, Khalil Shakir and Dalton Kincaid (among others) are very likely to rest for all or most of this game. Rookie Ray Davis is likely your best fantasy option from this offense, but the uncertainty makes everyone risky.
Fumbling issues led to a demotion for Rhamondre Stevenson in Week 17. The veteran back started, but was limited to just two carries and one target on 20 snaps, compared with 12 carries and one target on 28 snaps for Antonio Gibson. Gibson went for 63 yards on 12 touches, whereas Stevenson totaled just a single yard on his two touches. It's unclear if Stevenson will return to lead-back duties this week, but considering the risk that he doesn't and the fact that he has been held under 13.0 fantasy points in seven straight games, he's best left on benches against the Bills.
Over/under: 42.2 (10th highest)
Win probability: Bills 53% (15th highest)
New York Giants @ Philadelphia Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 22, Giants 16
Lineup locks: Tyrone Tracy Jr., Malik Nabers
Week 18 motivation: The Eagles are locked into the No. 2 seed in the NFC, which means they have nothing to gain or lose in Week 18. As a result, Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith (among others) are very likely to rest for all or most of this game.
Wan'Dale Robinson opened the season with 13-plus fantasy points in three of his first five outings, but then maxed out at 10.1 points during his following nine games. He now appears to be back on track, having cleared 13.0 points in two straight contests. Robinson has reached a 24% target share in four straight and his 5-71-1 receiving line Sunday was good enough to match his season high of 18.1 fantasy points. Robinson's heavy target share and a matchup against an Eagles defense likely to rest key starters is enough to consider him for a flex spot in Week 18.
Over/under: 38.7 (14th highest)
Win probability: Eagles 70% (7th highest)
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected score: Buccaneers 30, Saints 19
Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Alvin Kamara, Mike Evans
Week 18 motivation: The Buccaneers are heavily motivated to win this game, as a win would clinch a playoff spot, the NFC South and, if the Rams lose, the No. 3 seed. A loss coupled with a Falcons win could eliminate them from the playoffs.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire made his New Orleans debut Sunday and soaked up five carries and four targets on 25 snaps. Kendre Miller (concussion) left the game early, though he had been in a near-even timeshare (7-5 in snaps) with CEH prior to his departure. Once Miller went down, Edwards-Helaire played on 20 snaps to Jamaal Williams' 21. None of the backs was productive, with Edwards-Helaire pacing the group in touches (7), yards (30) and fantasy points (5.0). If Kamara remains out=, this is a situation ideally avoided -- especially against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest RB yards (and only 11 RB scores) this season. Edwards-Helaire should be viewed as a desperation flex only if Kamara and Miller are sidelined.
Over/under: 49.6 (2nd highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 85% (2nd highest)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 23, Chiefs 19
Lineup locks: Courtland Sutton
Week 18 motivation: The Chiefs locked up the No. 1 seed in the AFC, which means they have nothing to gain or lose in Week 18. As a result, Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, Isiah Pacheco, Kareem Hunt, Xavier Worthy, Hollywood Brown and DeAndre Hopkins (among others) are very likely to rest for at least a chunk of this game. Kansas City is locked into a bye, so the starters might play a half or so, but a full game seems like a long shot. The Broncos, meanwhile, clinch a playoff spot with a win and will thus be going all out.
Marvin Mims Jr. has seen an uptick in playing time over the past month or so and the results have been good. Mims exploded for 109 yards and a score in Week 13, produced 65 yards in Week 16, and then had a career day with 102 yards and two scores on nine touches last week. Mims' eight targets in Week 17 were easily a career high and he caught all of them. Despite the surge, Mims remains risky. He has yet to play on more than 48% of snaps in any game this season, nor has his route participation exceeded 48% in any single outing. Consider Mims to be a flex wild card against a Chiefs defense likely to rest key players this week.
Over/under: 41.2 (11th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 65% (9th highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Projected score: Chargers 21, Raiders 18
Lineup locks: J.K. Dobbins, Ladd McConkey, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers
Week 18 motivation: The Chargers have clinched a playoff berth, but their seeding remains up in the air. If the Steelers win Saturday, the Chargers will be locked into the No. 6 seed and likely will rest players. If the Steelers lose, the Chargers can jump up to the No. 5 seed with a win and will be motivated to beat Las Vegas. Monitor this situation before locking in lineups.
Ameer Abdullah is fresh off a productive Week 17 in which he put up career-high marks in both rushing yards (115) and scrimmage yards (147). Abdullah, who has appeared in 141 regular-season games since entering the league in 2015, had maxed out at 13 touches in any single game this season prior to the huge boost in usage on Sunday. The 31-year-old now has scored at least 17 fantasy points in three straight games and has found the end zone in four of his past seven outings. There's some risk here as he was out-snapped by Alexander Mattison in Week 16. This is especially true against a Chargers defense that has allowed the second fewest RB scores (7), but the recent surge is enough to get the veteran back into the RB2 mix.
Over/under: 39.2 (13th highest)
Win probability: Chargers 63% (11th highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Projected score: Seahawks 21, Rams 18
Lineup locks: Zach Charbonnet, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, DK Metcalf
Week 18 motivation: The Rams clinched a playoff berth and will be either the No. 3 or 4 seed in the NFC. If the Buccaneers defeat the Saints during the early Sunday slate, the Rams will need to win in order to clinch the No. 3 seed. If the Buccaneers lose, the Rams will be locked into the No. 3 seed and can rest key players. Sean McVay indicated he will likely rest players regardless, so the likes of Kyren Williams, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp and Matthew Stafford shouldn't be near lineups.
Over/under: 38.3 (16th highest)
Win probability: Rams 57% (13th highest)
Miami Dolphins @ New York Jets
Projected score: Dolphins 26, Jets 18
Lineup locks: De'Von Achane, Breece Hall, Davante Adams, Tyreek Hill, Garrett Wilson, Jonnu Smith
Week 18 motivation: The Dolphins need a win and help to make the playoffs. They'll be fully motivated.
After putting together an impressive midseason surge (three games with 24-plus points), Wilson's production has dipped over the past month and a half. Since his season-high 30.0-point effort in Week 9, he has failed to clear 18.4 points in any of his past seven games. The good news is that he's still seeing a decent number of targets (7.9 per game during the span) and has found the end zone in two of his past three. Wilson might draw Jalen Ramsey shadow coverage this week, but that was the case back in Week 14 and he went for 114 yards on 10 targets. He remains a solid starting option.
Over/under: 44.5 (5th highest)
Win probability: Dolphins 76% (4th highest)
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Projected score: Cardinals 25, 49ers 19
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Isaac Guerendo, Jauan Jennings, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride, George Kittle
Week 18 motivation: No playoffs ahead for either team, but also no reason not to play their usual starters.
Conner (knee) was active last week, but a setback limited the veteran back to four carries and three targets on 12 snaps. With Conner limited and Trey Benson sidelined, Michael Carter dominated the backfield snaps. Carter was on the field for 52 plays and soaked up 13 carries and two targets, whereas DeeJay Dallas didn't carry the ball and saw only one target on 11 snaps. Carter showed well (81 yards on 15 touches), which was a step forward from his 48 yards on 10 touches the week prior. If (and only if) Conner and Benson are both out this week, Carter will serve as Arizona's clear lead back. That would position him as an RB2/flex option against a 49ers defense that has allowed the fifth-most TDs (18) and fifth-most fantasy points to RBs this season.
Over/under: 44.3 (6th highest)
Win probability: Cardinals 56% (14th highest)
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Projected score: Lions 29, Vikings 25
Lineup locks: Sam Darnold, Jahmyr Gibbs, Aaron Jones, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jordan Addison, Jameson Williams, Sam LaPorta, T.J. Hockenson
Week 18 motivation: This one is simple. The winner earns the top seed in the NFC and the highly coveted bye. The loser drops to the No. 5 seed in the NFC and will play a road game in the wild-card round. Both teams will be going all out.
Williams is in the midst of a full-on breakout, having posted the two highest fantasy point totals of his career in his past two games. That included 150 yards and one TD on six touches in Week 16, as well as a 75-yard, 2-TD effort on seven touches this past Monday night. Since returning from suspension in Week 10, Williams is handling a 19% target share and averaging 16.1 fantasy PPG. Williams sits no worse than WR4 in yards per reception (17.6), yards per target (11.0) and RAC (7.9). He's a "lineup lock" against a Vikings defense that has allowed the most catches, second-most yards and most fantasy points to WRs this season.
Over/under: 53.1 (highest)
Win probability: Lions 64% (10th highest)