Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 15, which kicked off Thursday with the Rams at the 49ers.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for seasonlong leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Jump to:
KC-CLE | CIN-TEN | WAS-NO | BAL-NYG | DAL-CAR | NYJ-JAX | MIA-HOU
IND-DEN | BUF-DET | PIT-PHI | NE-ARI | TB-LAC | GB-SEA | CHI-MIN | ATL-LV
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cleveland Browns
Projected score: Chiefs 24, Browns 19
Lineup locks: Jerry Jeudy, Travis Kelce, David Njoku
Pacheco has yet to return to a feature-back role, but he's nonetheless worthy of reentry in your RB2 slot. Pacheco was limited to 31 snaps (48%) on Sunday night (his second game back from IR), but he was busy on those plays, totaling 14 carries and four targets. Compare that to Kareem Hunt and Samaje Perine, who combined for just six carries and three targets on 34 snaps. Pacheco didn't find the end zone, but produced 61 yards on his 16 touches. Pacheco, who scored 15-plus fantasy points when healthy during Weeks 1-2, is a fringe RB2 against a Browns defense that has been stingy against RBs in the passing game, but has allowed 13 rushing scores to the position (fifth most).
Over/under: 43 (10th highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 66% (7th highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Tennessee Titans
Projected score: Bengals 25, Titans 21
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Chase Brown, Tony Pollard, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins
Calvin Ridley got back on track in both the target (12) and reception (7) department on Sunday, but did not right himself in the all-important yardage (59) and TD (0) categories. Ridley has found the end zone only three times this season (two came in Week 10) and his output has been all over the map (22-plus fantasy points three times, but under 10 points in seven games). Ridley's usage (11th in targets and first in air yards) keeps him in the WR3 mix and that's especially the case this week against the Bengals' shaky perimeter corners.
Over/under: 46.5 (4th highest)
Win probability: Bengals 63% (8th highest)
Washington Commanders @ New Orleans Saints
Projected score: Commanders 27, Saints 17
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Alvin Kamara, Brian Robinson Jr., Terry McLaurin
With Derek Carr sidelined, Jake Haener and/or Spencer Rattler will be under center for the Saints. The duo handled all the QB work in three games (Weeks 6-8) earlier this season and the New Orleans offense did not fare well, totaling only three TDs during the span. One of the scores was by Kamara, who was the only Saint with more than 11 touches and 27 fantasy points across the three games. The two QBs, who posted a 5.8 YPA and 57% completion percentage, will be facing off with an improved Washington defense and are likely to crush what's left of the Saints' fantasy appeal. Kamara is the only New Orleans player who should be in lineups.
Over/under: 43.8 (9th highest)
Win probability: Commanders 81% (2nd highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ New York Giants
Projected score: Ravens 30, Giants 16
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Malik Nabers, Zay Flowers
Tracy's playing time has progressively increased over the past two weeks and he matched a season high by playing on 84% of snaps this past Sunday. The rookie wasn't overly efficient, but 16 carries and a career-high 10 targets was enough to produce 83 yards, one TD and a strong fantasy outing (19.3 points). Tracy has now delivered 14-plus fantasy points in two straight and in six of his last nine. New York appears committed to him as its lead back, and the boost in receiving work helps secure his place as a weekly fantasy starter. Of course, expectations should be limited a bit this week, as he'll face off with a Baltimore defense that has allowed the second-fewest RB rushing yards and second-lowest YPC (3.4) this season.
Over/under: 45.2 (5th highest)
Win probability: Ravens 92% (Highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ Carolina Panthers
Projected score: Panthers 21, Cowboys 20
Lineup locks: Chuba Hubbard, Rico Dowdle, CeeDee Lamb
Adam Thielen is a borderline "lineup lock" after posting his second straight double-digit target game on Sunday. Thielen followed up an 8-99-1 receiving line in Week 13 with a 9-102-0 showing against a strong Eagles defense in Week 14. Thielen's season started slowly (and that was followed by a long injury absence), but he has a strong connection with Bryce Young (103 catches on 1,014 yards last season), who is playing the best ball of his career. Thielen has handled a target share of 29% over the past two weeks and can be considered a WR3/flex in a decent matchup against a Dallas defense that sits top 10 in terms of the most WR catches, yards and fantasy points allowed.
Over/under: 41 (15th highest)
Win probability: Panthers 56% (12th highest)
New York Jets @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected score: Jaguars 23, Jets 21
Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, Brian Thomas Jr.
The Jaguars appear to have a new lead back. Tank Bigsby beat out Travis Etienne Jr. in both snaps (30-28) and carries (18-4) on Sunday, whereas Etienne led in routes (15-10) and targets (4-2). Etienne started and played on the first two snaps, but Bigsby played on the next three and was rotated in throughout the game, including playing on the final eight snaps. Bigsby is running the ball well (5.0 YPC on 120 carries) this season, but he's a nonfactor as a receiver (50 yards on just eight targets), which figures to limit him to borderline flex territory. Etienne hasn't found the end zone since Week 2, but remains a factor in the passing game and his 70 yards on Sunday were his most since Week 3. Just like Bigsby, he'll be hard to trust as anything more than a flex.
Over/under: 44.4 (6th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 55% (13th highest)
Miami Dolphins @ Houston Texans
Projected score: Dolphins 22, Texans 20
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, De'Von Achane, Nico Collins, Tyreek Hill
The Tank Dell breakout campaign simply hasn't come to fruition. After producing 760 yards and seven touchdowns in 11 games as a rookie, Dell has managed just 571 yards and two scores in 12 games in 2024. He's reached 18 fantasy points twice but has fallen short of 14 points in every other game, including four straight under 11. Dell's efficiency has gone from ranking among the best at wide receiver in 2023 to near the worst in 2024 and his 19% target share hasn't been enough to allow consistent fantasy output. He's best left on benches against a Miami defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest WR fantasy points.
Over/under: 42.7 (11th highest)
Win probability: Dolphins 57% (11th highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ Denver Broncos
Projected score: Broncos 22, Colts 17
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Courtland Sutton
When we last saw Denver (prior to the Week 14 bye), it was Jaleel McLaughlin who emerged out of nowhere to lead the backfield. The 2023 UDFA produced 85 yards (his prior season high was 56) on 15 touches after averaging just 6.8 touches during Denver's first 12 games. Despite randomly dominating the carries, McLaughlin produced zero receiving yards for the fourth consecutive game. With Javonte Williams (fewer than eight scrimmage yards in three of his past four games) and Audric Estime (7.3 touches per game over his past four outings) also involved and a threat to emerge as the "hot hand" at any time, this remains a backfield to avoid -- even in a great matchup against a Colts defense that sits top five in terms of the most RB fantasy points and yards allowed.
Over/under: 38.8 (16th highest)
Win probability: Broncos 70% (5th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ Detroit Lions
Projected score: Lions 28, Bills 25
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, James Cook, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Khalil Shakir
Amari Cooper was as busy as any wide receiver in the league in Week 14, handling 14 targets (only Ja'Marr Chase had more) and racking up an absurd 246 air yards, which was more than any player has had in any single game this season. Despite the heavy usage, Cooper produced "only" six catches, 95 yards and 15.5 fantasy points. It was his best outing since he produced 16.6 points in his Week 7 Buffalo debut and he had totaled only eight targets and 13.0 points over his prior three games. Sunday was a step in the right direction, but especially if Keon Coleman and/or Dalton Kincaid return, Cooper can't yet be trusted as a fantasy starter -- especially against a Detroit defense that has been tougher on receivers as of late (eighth-fewest WR fantasy points allowed over their past four games).
Over/under: 53.1 (Highest)
Win probability: Lions 63% (9th highest)
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Philadelphia Eagles
Projected score: Eagles 24, Steelers 18
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, A.J. Brown
With George Pickens sidelined last week, the Steelers' WR usage was as follows: Van Jefferson (45 snaps, 1 target), Scotty Miller (34 snaps, 4 targets), Calvin Austin III (22 snaps, 3 targets), Ben Skowronek (20 snaps, 0 targets) and Mike Williams (17 snaps, 4 targets). This was clearly a committee approach, with none of the receivers clearing 38 yards or 8.0 fantasy points in the game. It's likely that Pittsburgh will need to throw more as a road underdog this week, but even with Pickens likely to again be sidelined, this is a situation to avoid -- especially against an Eagles defense that has allowed the fewest WR fantasy points over its past eight games.
Over/under: 42 (14th highest)
Win probability: Eagles 72% (4th highest)
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals
Projected score: Cardinals 25, Patriots 19
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Rhamondre Stevenson, New England's clear lead back, feels like he should be a "lineup lock." However, despite handling 20-plus touches in three of his past four games, the veteran back has gone four straight outings without reaching 13 fantasy points. After scoring seven TDs over his first eight games, he has zero over his last four. The heavy volume, which includes a 65% snap share for the season, is enough to keep Stevenson in the RB2/flex discussion. It also helps that he'll be facing an Arizona defense that allowed 193 yards and 38.3 fantasy points to Zach Charbonnet last week.
Over/under: 43.8 (8th highest)
Win probability: Cardinals 73% (3rd highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Los Angeles Chargers
Projected score: Chargers 24, Buccaneers 23
Lineup locks: Ladd McConkey, Mike Evans
Battling through injury last week, Bucky Irving was on the field for 10 of Tampa Bay's first 22 offensive snaps prior to retiring for the day. Rachaad White started and played on 14 snaps prior to Irving's departure and went on to handle 30 snaps (compared to 11 for Sean Tucker) over the rest of the game. White ended up with 109 yards and two scores on 19 touches. He now has at least 11 touches in all but one game this season and he's scored eight times in his past seven games.
This is going to be a tricky backfield to navigate if Irving is active this week, and both he and White should be considered RB2/flex options in that scenario. Should Irving sit, White will make for a fine RB2 option, even in a tough matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed a league-low four RB rushing scores this season. Tucker should be viewed only as a very-deep-league flex option if Irving is inactive.
Over/under: 47.2 (3rd highest)
Win probability: Chargers 53% (15th highest)
Green Bay Packers @ Seattle Seahawks
Projected score: Packers 22, Seahawks 21
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba
The fantasy playoffs are here and if you're wondering if you can trust a Green Bay wide receiver, the answer is a resounding no. Even with Romeo Doubs (concussion) sidelined last week, Jayden Reed was held to only one target and zero touches. Reed has proved to be a very boom/bust commodity this season, reaching 19 fantasy points three times (one of which came in Week 13), but falling short of 11 points seven times (including three of his last four).
Reed's target share (17%, down from 18% in 2023) simply isn't cutting it and he, in turn, ranks outside the top 40 WRs in targets (59), receptions (44), expected TDs (3.2) and end zone targets (3). Christian Watson, meanwhile, has produced 100-plus yards in two of his past four, but mixed in a zero-catch game in Week 12 and has reached 14 fantasy points only twice this season. Both receivers are boom/bust flex options, especially if Doubs returns.
Over/under: 42.4 (12th highest)
Win probability: Packers 55% (14th highest)
Chicago Bears @ Minnesota Vikings
Projected score: Vikings 25, Bears 19
Lineup locks: Sam Darnold, Aaron Jones, D'Andre Swift, Justin Jefferson, Jordan Addison, DJ Moore, T.J. Hockenson
Rome Odunze scored twice last week, doubling his TD total from his first 12 NFL games. The scoring shouldn't come as a shock, however, as he entered the game as one of the league's unluckiest players in the TD department and he still has some "regression to the mean" on the horizon (3 TDs, 5.1 xTD). Odunze has dealt with a WR-high 37% off-target rate, but gets a ton of work, ranking ninth in routes and 12th in end zone targets among WRs. In fact, since Thomas Brown took over Chicago's offense, Odunze's 32 targets (23%) fall just short of Moore's 38 (28%) and Keenan Allen's 35 (25%). The rookie is set to face off with a Minnesota defense that has allowed the most WR fantasy points this season. He joins Allen as a viable WR3/flex option.
Over/under: 44.1 (7th highest)
Win probability: Vikings 69% (6th highest)
Atlanta Falcons @ Las Vegas Raiders
Projected score: Falcons 22, Raiders 20
Lineup locks: Bijan Robinson, Drake London, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers
It's unclear what the Raiders' backfield will look like when Alexander Mattison is healthy, but for now (and perhaps for the rest of the season), Sincere McCormick appears to be set as the team's lead back. McCormick's workload has increased in each of the past three weeks, peaking with career-high marks in snaps (38, 59%), carries (15), routes (12) and targets (3) in Week 14. McCormick has performed well, registering 65 yards on 14 touches in Week 13 and 89 yards on 17 touches last week. The 2022 UDFA has yet to find the end zone, but his solid role and good efficiency (5.5 YPC) is enough to land him flex consideration this week against Atlanta.
Over/under: 42.2 (13th highest)
Win probability: Falcons 60% (10th highest)