Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 12, which kicked off Thursday with the Steelers at the Browns.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Jump to:
KC-CAR | MIN-CHI | TEN-HOU | DET-IND | NE-MIA | TB-NYG
DAL-WAS | DEN-LV | SF-GB | ARI-SEA | PHI-LAR | BAL-LAC
Minnesota Vikings @ Chicago Bears
Projected Score: Vikings 20, Bears 18
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, D'Andre Swift, Justin Jefferson, DJ Moore
T.J. Hockenson appeared to be solidly back in the TE1 mix after posting an 8-72-0 receiving line on nine targets in Week 10. However, he regressed to just 13 yards on three targets in Week 11 and continues to play a limited role. Hockenson has played on 45-46% of snaps in all three games since his return and, after solid 67% route participation in Week 10, he dipped to 49% last week. Better days are ahead for Hockenson, but the step back last week and a tough matchup against a Chicago defense that hasn't allowed any TE catching scores since Week 1 suggests he's more of a fringe TE1 than a "lineup lock."
Over/Under: 37.9 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Vikings 57% (12th highest)
Detroit Lions @ Indianapolis Colts
Projected Score: Lions 28, Colts 17
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Josh Downs
Anthony Richardson returned to the starting lineup last Sunday and proceeded to deliver the second-best fantasy performance of his career. The second-year quarterback threw for 272 yards (with a TD pass), adding 32 yards and two rushing scores. In eight full career games, Richardson has now produced 20-plus fantasy points four times (an 26.2 average). However, he also fell short of 12 fantasy points in the other four (an 8.8 average). Richardson's boom/bust output makes him a risky fantasy option. He's best left on benches against a terrific Detroit pass defense that has faced the third-most passing attempts, but has allowed a league-low seven passing scores. No QB has cleared 21.6 fantasy points against them.
Over/Under: 45.1 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 84% (2nd highest)
New England Patriots @ Miami Dolphins
Projected Score: Dolphins 26, Patriots 20
Lineup locks: De'Von Achane, Rhamondre Stevenson, Tyreek Hill
It's just not happening for Jaylen Waddle. The fourth-year receiver came out strong with 112 yards and 16.2 fantasy points in Week 1, but has failed to clear 56 yards or 8.6 fantasy points in any of his past nine outings. Waddle is averaging a weak 4.7 targets per game and has only one touchdown. Waddle's usage and production suggests he's best left on benches, although with six teams on a bye and in a good matchup (the Patriots have allowed the seventh-most WR yards and 10th-most WR fantasy points), he's a justifiable Week 12 flex option.
Over/Under: 46.3 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 72% (6th highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ New York Giants
Projected Score: Buccaneers 26, Giants 19
Lineup locks: Baker Mayfield, Bucky Irving, Rachaad White, Tyrone Tracy Jr., Mike Evans, Malik Nabers, Cade Otton
Tommy DeVito has replaced Daniel Jones as the Giants' starting QB. DeVito played five full games during his rookie season in 2023 and wasn't particularly impressive. He made waves with a 246-yard, 3-TD game in Week 11 against Washington, but failed to clear 191 yards in the other four outings (adding only four more TD passes to his total). The Giants' offense can't get much worse as it ranks last in touchdowns -- both this season and since 2020. So, the key here will simply be whether or not DeVito can successfully get the ball in the hands of Nabers, Tracy and Wan'Dale Robinson. This is a terrific matchup for the Giants' offense and they have a lot of them down the stretch. Tampa Bay sits top six in fantasy points allowed to QBs, RBs, WRs and TEs. Nabers and Tracy should remain in lineups, whereas Robinson is a PPR flex option. DeVito is a back-end starting option in superflex formats.
Over/Under: 44.8 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 72% (5th highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ Washington Commanders
Projected Score: Commanders 28, Cowboys 17
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., CeeDee Lamb, Terry McLaurin
Through the two games since Dak Prescott's season-ending injury, Lamb is the only Dallas player with more than 18.0 total fantasy points. Lamb (130 yards on 16 touches during the span) remains a "lineup lock" (albeit with reduced expectations) and is the only Dallas player who fits that bill. Rico Dowdle remains Dallas' lead back, but he has been limited to 90 yards on 27 touches in the two games (7.0 fantasy PPG). He's a low-upside flex. Jake Ferguson was held to 24 yards on six targets in Week 10 prior to leaving Monday night's game early with a concussion. He would be a fringe top-10 option if he's able to play this week, but that's not looking to be likely.
Over/Under: 44.2 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 86% (Highest)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Carolina Panthers
Projected Score: Chiefs 26, Panthers 17
Lineup locks: Kareem Hunt, Chuba Hubbard, Travis Kelce
The Chiefs made it a point to get the ball in the hands of Xavier Worthy in Week 11 and it paid dividends. The speedy rookie produced 68 yards and his sixth touchdown of the season on five touches. The touchdowns and occasional big plays are nice, but there are still some major red flags here. Worthy was limited to five targets and has now seen five or fewer targets in seven out of 10 games, including three straight. His 60% snap rate on Sunday was actually below his 63% season average and his 15% target share on the season doesn't scream "consistent fantasy production." Perhaps Worthy will continue to ascend, but for now, both he and DeAndre Hopkins (under 10.0 fantasy points in two straight) are best viewed as no more than WR3/flex options.
Over/Under: 43.5 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 81% (3rd highest)
Tennessee Titans @ Houston Texans
Projected Score: Texans 21, Titans 17
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Nico Collins, Calvin Ridley, Tank Dell
In the two games since Tyjae Spears has returned from injury, the second-year back has totaled 10 carries and six targets on 48 snaps (45%). That's compared to 18 carries and eight targets on 62 snaps (58%) for Tony Pollard. The huge downgrade in Pollard's role has been brutal for his fantasy output, as he has totaled a mere 92 yards (zero TDs) on 24 touches in the two games, though note that the schedule was also extremely hard -- both the Chargers and Vikings rank in the top three in terms of fewest RB fantasy points allowed. Of course, life won't be much easier this week against a Houston defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest yards and fantasy points to the position. Pollard should be viewed as a fringe RB2, whereas Spears (yet to reach 12.0 fantasy points in any game) should be on benches or waivers.
Over/Under: 38.1 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 63% (11th highest)
Denver Broncos @ Las Vegas Raiders
Projected Score: Broncos 23, Raiders 14
Lineup locks: Courtland Sutton, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers
The Raiders returned from their bye with a new offensive coordinator and a new RB rotation. Zamir White held a 16-3 snap edge over Alexander Mattison to open the game, but then Mattison saw a 13-5 edge on the Raiders' next 19 plays. White then left the game injured, whereas Mattison made it only two more snaps before leaving the game himself. Ameer Abdullah didn't see the field until late in the third quarter and then played on the final 21 snaps of the game. It's clear the team tried to get White rolling, but that didn't work (nine yards, five carries) and he's still yet to clear 7.0 fantasy points in a game this season. Mattison remains the preferred desperation flex from this group, but it's a situation best avoided.
One week after turning over a big chunk of the backfield to rookie Audric Estime, the Broncos turned back to Javonte Williams as its lead back in Week 11. Williams handled nine carries and five targets on 32 snaps, compared to six carries and three targets on 13 snaps for Estime and four carries on eight snaps for Jaleel McLaughlin. Denver's RB usage remains very volatile, so this is also a backfield best avoided. However, if you need to choose one, Williams is the best flex option against a Raiders defense that has allowed the seventh-most RB fantasy points and touchdowns (11). Williams matched season-highs in touches (18) and yardage (111) when these teams met in Week 5.
Over/Under: 37.1 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Broncos 81% (4th highest)
San Francisco 49ers @ Green Bay Packers
Projected Score: Packers 23, 49ers 23
Lineup locks: Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, Josh Jacobs, Deebo Samuel Sr., Jauan Jennings, Jayden Reed, George Kittle
Both Jennings and Christian Watson find themselves on the WR2/3 radar after each impressed in Week 11, and with six teams on a Week 12 bye. Jennings has now seen exactly 11 targets in both games since his return from injury, posting receiving lines of 7-93-0 and 10-91-1. He has played on at least 80% of snaps in his three best games this season and has a 37% target share (11.3 per game), averaging 29.3 fantasy PPG during the span. He's a "lineup lock." Watson, meanwhile, has handled a target share of at least 19% in three straight games and, while the results weren't very good prior to Week 11 (6.6 fantasy PPG with a max of 15.8), he exploded for 150 yards and a season-high 19.0 fantasy points this past Sunday. Watson still could use more looks as he's yet to clear seven targets in any game, but the recent increase in usage and production is enough to put him in the WR3 mix against the 49ers.
Over/Under: 46.7 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Packers 51% (13th highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Seattle Seahawks
Projected Score: Cardinals 26, Seahawks 21
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, James Conner, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Geno Smith's bizarre season continues, as the veteran quarterback remains no lower than third among QBs in dropbacks, passing attempts, completions and yards, but has thrown only 11 touchdowns (19th most) and leads the league with his 11 INTs. Smith has been much better with his legs than he was in 2023 (a 40-222-2 rushing line, compared to 37-155-1 last season), but he has still been an inconsistent fantasy producer (six top-10 fantasy finishes, but outside the top 20 in the other four weeks). Given all the byes, though, Smith is a viable streaming option against Arizona in Week 12.
Over/Under: 47.1 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Cardinals 65% (9th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Los Angeles Rams
Projected Score: Eagles 24, Rams 19
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Kyren Williams, A.J. Brown, Puka Nacua, Cooper Kupp, DeVonta Smith
Williams has fallen short of 12 fantasy points in three straight games and has a tough matchup this week. That said, there's no need to panic. Williams has played on at least 79% of snaps in all 10 games and he has managed 15-plus touches and 77-plus yards in eight straight outings. Williams' targets have been inconsistent (two games with six-plus and two with zero over his past five games), but he remains busy near the goal line -- his 12 inside-the-5 carries trail only Derrick Henry for most in the NFL. Better days are ahead for Williams although, as mentioned, Week 12 presents a tough assignment. The Eagles have allowed the sixth-fewest RB fantasy points and only three RB scores. No back has reached 18.0 fantasy points against them. Consider Williams to be a solid RB2.
Over/Under: 42.3 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 67% (7th highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ Los Angeles Chargers
Projected Score: Ravens 28, Chargers 24
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Justin Herbert, Derrick Henry, J.K. Dobbins, Zay Flowers, Ladd McConkey, Quentin Johnston
Will Dissly is working his way into the TE1 discussion after a big boost in usage that has been helped by Hayden Hurst's demotion -- Hurst was a healthy scratch on Sunday night. Dissly has enjoyed a double-digit target share in nine consecutive games and, with Los Angeles passing more as of late, that has allowed him six-plus targets in four of his past five games. Dissly produced 8.0-plus fantasy points in four of those five games, including Sunday's season-high 18.0 (a 4-80-1 receiving line on six targets). Dissly remains only a part-time player (57% of snaps), which could lead to some inconsistency. Still, he has a good matchup this week against a Ravens defense that has allowed the third-most TE receptions and fourth-most TE yards.
Over/Under: 52.5 (Highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 64% (10th highest)