Every Thursday, we discuss NFL trends and tendencies here as they apply to fantasy football. And we'll do that again today, but I want to keep this more matchup-focused as we head into the Week 11 slate of games.
Now, I'm not going to tell you to play Lamar Jackson or Saquon Barkley. We know they're in. This isn't a start/sit column, either. That's not really what I do. However, we can look at some players who have both positive and negative matchups this week. And we'll use the tendencies I see on the game tape, along with the metrics, because at 6-4 in my home league, I need a win, too.
Here are three matchups to play in Week 11, and three more to question, as you begin to set your lineups.
Matchups to play in Week 11
Josh Jacobs, RB, Green Bay Packers (at Chicago Bears)
Do the Bears find some juice on offense this week with new coordinator Thomas Brown? Maybe. And that could impact game flow on Sunday at Soldier Field. But I'm looking at this from the perspective of Packers head coach Matt LaFleur and how he will scheme that Chicago defense.
Now, we know Packers quarterback Jordan Love is working through another injury (groin) and has also been turnover-prone, throwing at least one interception in every game played this season. Plus, the Bears are giving up only 190.4 passing yards per game this season, which ranks seventh overall in the league. Cover 2, single-high zone, man. That's a good secondary, with second-level speed underneath.
So, if I'm LaFleur here? Let's target (and expose) the weakness of that Bears defense by running the ball with Jacobs. Through Week 10, the Bears have surrendered 133.0 rushing yards per game (ninth-most) while giving up an average of 22.6 fantasy PPG to opposing running backs. Jacobs has posted six straight games with double-digit production, including two of 20 or more, and he's had at least 18 carries in three games during that stretch. This road matchup for the Packers could set up to be another volume day for Jacobs, making him a solid RB2.
Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos (vs. Atlanta Falcons)
Watching Nix on tape just feels different now. Maybe that's the poise in the pocket. The ball location is there on deep, in-breaking concepts. And his composure when working outside of structure as a thrower jumps out, too. To me, he's maturing as a passer in Sean Payton's offense, and we're also seeing it in the numbers.
Just look at last week, on the road, versus the Chiefs. Nix went 22-of-30 passing for 215 yards with two touchdowns. Nix has now thrown for multiple touchdowns in two of his last three games, and he's scored at least 16 points in five of his last six, including three with 20 or more. Plus, with Nix's willingness to run the ball (he's averaging 6.0 carries per game), he gives you a dual-threat element in the lineup. I'll take that this week against a Falcons defense giving up 18.6 PPG to quarterbacks this season, which ranks in the bottom 10. You can play Nix here, in a home matchup, as a lower-tier QB1.
Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers (vs. Cincinnati Bengals)
Earlier this week, I wrote on Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert (60.9% rostered in ESPN leagues) as one of my top streaming options for Week 11. Sure, Herbert's mobility is back after the ankle injury, which adds to his fantasy profile, but I also love the passing matchup versus the Bengals defense. And that's why I'm also focusing on McConkey here, because I think he could be in line to deliver for managers in the Sunday night game.
Now, McConkey caught just two passes (on two targets) last week in the win over the Tennessee Titans. But if we go back to Weeks 8-9, in much more favorable matchups versus the New Orleans Saints and Cleveland Browns, McConkey logged 11 catches on 13 targets (with at least six targets per game) for 175 yards and two scores during that stretch. And against a Cincinnati defense giving up 220.2 passing yards per game (23rd in the league) and allowing 33.3 fantasy PPG to opposing wide receivers, McConkey feels like a strong play here.
Use that savvy route running ability to uncover, while producing on schemed concepts that allow Herbert to hammer the ball to the middle of the field. I'll take McConkey as a fringe WR2 for this one.
Week 11 matchups to question
Najee Harris, RB, Pittsburgh Steelers (vs. Baltimore Ravens)
A couple of weeks back, I tagged Harris as a player to sell high after he produced three straight games with over 100 yards rushing. With the presence of Jaylen Warren, plus the lack of receiving totals for Harris, the matchups were going to trend down. It started last week versus Washington, where Harris rushed for just 53 yards on 21 carries. Yes, Harris did score a touchdown to push his point total to double-digits (11.3), but he failed to record a reception. And it doesn't get easier this Sunday with Harris working through an ankle injury and the Baltimore run defense looming.
As we head into Week 11, the Ravens' run defense ranks No. 1 in the NFL against the run, giving up just 73.0 yards rushing per game and 3.4 YPC. On the flip side? You can throw the ball on the Ravens, as they're allowing a league-high 294.9 yards passing per game. Yes, Harris will get his carries, as the rushing attack is a foundational piece of the Steelers' offense, but this is much better matchup for quarterback Russell Wilson (only 50.9% rostered) and wide receiver George Pickens. Those are the smart plays for managers, while Harris has a much tougher road on Sunday. And that's why I would only play him as a mid-tier flex option this week.
Sam Darnold, QB, Minnesota Vikings (at Titans)
Is Darnold starting to regress? It sure looks that way. Yes, Kevin O'Connell's quarterback-friendly offense creates defined reads/throws for Darnold. Hit the back foot and drive the ball. Plus, Darnold has the league's best receiver, Justin Jefferson, as his top target. Take the one-on-ones there. But the turnovers and the decision-making are concerning heading into a Week 11 matchup versus the Titans defense.
Last week, in a 12-7 win over the Jacksonville Jaguars that resembled mid '80s football, Darnold scored just 6.44 fantasy points. He forced the ball into tight windows, made questionable throws and finished with three interceptions. Darnold has now thrown five picks in the past two games with at least one in seven of nine played this season. And he gets a Tennessee defense Sunday that is allowing a league-low 156.7 passing yards per game and only 5.7 YPA.
Of course, having Jefferson changes things. It always has. He's that good. Darnold's mobility is a bonus, too (at least four carries in three of his last four games). But Darnold's decision-making, especially late in the down, leads to trouble. So, I'm going to sit this one out, as Darnold slides down this week as a QB2 in my ranks.
Jake Ferguson, TE, Dallas Cowboys (vs. Houston Texans)
I'm a fan of Ferguson's game. Easy mover. Willing to work the dirty areas of the field. Rugged in the open field. But Ferguson has posted double-digit points in just one of his last four games, and he's yet to find the end zone this season. Plus, without Dak Prescott under center, can we really buy into this Cowboys passing game against a Texans defense that limits tight ends?
Houston is allowing a league-best 7.4 fantasy PPG to opposing tight ends. And it has also given up only 174.7 passing yards per game, which ranks fourth overall. Yes, Houston will play some two-deep coverage, which will open up the seams for Ferguson. But Houston has become more man-heavy this season in its coverage tendencies, and I'm not at the point where I can trust Cooper Rush (or Trey Lance) in a Dallas offense that has to find some sense of rhythm without its No.1 quarterback on the field.