Fantasy football managers overthink just about everything. They often need a calm, measured voice of reason to remind them of what makes sense.
Take a deep breath. It is fantasy football. Make practical decisions on lineups, trades and foods for the tailgating party and things will work out. Try to enjoy the ride. You wouldn't believe the things fantasy managers overthink. Well, you're (presumably) a fantasy manager. OK, so perhaps you would.
Don't expect Tua Tagovailoa to save your fantasy team
Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill said having Tagovailoa back at practice almost made him cry. Yeah, fantasy football managers know the feeling.
A healthy Tagovailoa is great news for the Dolphins and for fantasy football, but perhaps not in the way many people realize. Yes, Tagovailoa led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards last season, and he was among the leaders with 29 touchdown passes, but his extreme lack of running production (only 172 rushing yards, 0 TD in his past 32 games) still left him on the outside looking in when it came to QB1 options. Tagovailoa, who played in all 17 games last season, finished 11th among QBs in total fantasy points, but he averaged 15.9 points per game, only 21st at the position. It was Tagovailoa's best -- and first full -- season, but let's keep proper perspective moving forward. He is not a must-play for fantasy this week.
The reason why Tagovailoa was so valuable for fantasy managers last season, and hopefully will be again, is due to how his performance affected others around him, specifically WRs Hill and, to a lesser degree, Jaylen Waddle. Hill was fantasy's No. 2 WR last season, edged out by only the Cowboys' CeeDee Lamb. In two seasons with the Dolphins, Hill has averaged 119 receptions, 1,755 receiving yards and 10 touchdowns. You may have noticed things have not gone well with someone else quarterbacking the Dolphins. Hill caught 130 yards worth of passes and a touchdown with Tagovailoa in Week 1, for 26 fantasy points. He has 164 receiving yards in five games since, a total of 37 points, and nary a touchdown.
Hill vaults back into trusted WR1 territory in our Week 8 rankings, on the premise Tagovailoa plays and plays competently well. There is probably more risk about Tagovailoa failing to finish the game than there is he struggles. Perhaps this is all too optimistic, but the Dolphins are under huge pressure to act appropriately after Tagovailoa suffered a concussion in Week 2, since it is hardly the first of his career. We should assume -- since everyone is watching -- that he is symptom-free, and few have questioned his skills and ability as a thrower. Waddle, averaging 6.6 points per game since Week 1, should benefit as well. The Dolphins face an Arizona Cardinals defense that permits the fifth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks.
One more Dolphins angle: RB Raheem Mostert scored 21 touchdowns last season, but remains tied with me, you and your plumber in the category this season. OK, so we knew Mostert's awesome TD production would decline, but it is not too late for him to help us, as he is healthy again after missing three games with a chest injury. Mostert has 30 rushing attempts for 130 yards the past two games, with four red zone rushes in that span. The younger De'Von Achane has not seen any red zone chances since Mostert returned. See what's happening here? Now the QB returns, too. All of this doesn't mean Mostert deserves flex attention for this week, but that day may be pending, so keep an open mind.
Do appreciate the underappreciated Najee Harris
The Steelers running back had his best fantasy season as a rookie in 2021, when he not only rushed for 1,200 yards and seven touchdowns, but he caught 74 passes for 467 yards. Only three running backs scored more PPR points that season. Harris was a rather ordinary runner in the traditional sense, averaging 3.9 yards per rush, but he saw so much volume (307 attempts), it didn't matter. We loved Harris for fantasy back then. Fantasy managers have not been as pleased with him since. However, we must stop comparing him to the 2021 version. This version works, too.
Harris enters Week 8 against the Giants coming off a pair of 100-yard rushing games, each coming with a rushing touchdown. Harris didn't do much the first four games, averaging barely 10 PPR points per game (outside the top 30 RBs), but then again, his QB (Justin Fields) was running. Since then, Harris has averaged 18.2 points. That works better. Harris is back on pace for what would be his fourth consecutive 1,000-yard rushing season, and he has yet to miss a game in his career. Durability and his steady presence matters, as does a high floor of production.
Sure, we would love it if the Steelers called more passing plays for Harris, but those days appear over. Harris went from 74 catches as a rookie to 70 combined in the next two seasons, with smaller, shiftier Jaylen Warren the preferred option. This season, neither Fields nor -- small-sample alert -- Russell Wilson have targeted the running backs much. Warren averages barely 5 PPR points per game. There is little reason to keep Warren rostered in standard leagues. Harris, meanwhile, may not win you a fantasy league, but the current version is quite useful and valuable.
Don't play Colts WRs when Anthony Richardson starts
The numbers are quite striking and disappointing. Richardson started and finished games in Weeks 1, 2, 3 and 7. He averaged 178 passing yards in those games, somehow failing to complete more than 50% of his passes in each contest. Overall. he has three touchdown passes and six interceptions. WR Michael Pittman Jr., who averaged 99 receptions, 1,053 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns over the past three seasons as a strong WR2, is nowhere near those paces this season.
Pittman averages 7.2 PPR points when Richardson starts/finishes, and 14.8 with Joe Flacco in the other games. Josh Downs averages 3.3 points in the Richardson games and 19.2 with Flacco. Man, you think Tyreek Hill struggled without his QB? What's happening in Indianapolis is harder to believe, because this is the intended starting QB. Richardson was the No. 4 pick in the 2023 NFL draft and a high fantasy pick this season. He doesn't look close to worth either designation so far, so it is easy for fantasy managers to bench or cut him.
At wide receiver, where there once was depth but now stands a frustrating collection of injured and underperforming players with little depth to save fantasy managers, things are not so simple.
The Colts showed a proficient passing game when Flacco filled in for an injured Richardson. They have been suboptimal with Richardson playing. At this point, there seems little reason for fantasy managers to start/trust Richardson. We know there is upside, and that upside directed fantasy managers to dream of top-5 fantasy QB performance this season. Whoa, that is just not happening. The problem is, while there are so many available QBs that a reasonable manager should easily replace Richardson, the wide receiver position is battered. People want to start Pittman and Downs. They just can't do it when Richardson plays.
Do expect the 49ers, Buccaneers to keep throwing the football
It stinks that the 49ers and Buccaneers each lost their top two wide receiver options to injury this past weekend. We await clarity on the 49ers' Deebo Samuel Sr. (pneumonia), but we know Brandon Aiyuk (knee) and Chris Godwin (ankle) are done for the season, and we won't see Mike Evans (hamstring) until Week 12, at least. It is brutal, but people get hurt in football. We see several NFL quarterbacks being held back by a lack of wide receiving options -- notably the Chargers' Justin Herbert, Chiefs' Patrick Mahomes (does DeAndre Hopkins really alter that?) and Rams' Matthew Stafford -- so why would the 49ers' Brock Purdy and Buccaneers' Baker Mayfield be different?
Good question! For now, the top WR options on San Francisco appear to be Jauan Jennings, who scored a massive 46.5 PPR points in Week 3 but only 19.8 in three games since, rookie Ricky Pearsall, now healthy after a preseason shooting incident, and rookie Jacob Cowing, who caught his first career passes on Sunday. Perhaps a trade is pending, perhaps not. The Buccaneers have at least been utilizing Sterling Shepard (the former Giants second-round pick from 2016 is back!), intriguing rookie Jalen McMillan and sophomore Trey Palmer.
Mayfield is fantasy's No. 2 QB for the season, and Purdy is eighth, and it seems unlikely these offenses will abandon the passing game due to a lack of options. Each QB has a productive tight end, too. Mayfield throws to his running backs. He and Purdy will find new wide receivers, so while it is wise to be skeptical Mayfield remains the No. 2 QB for two more months (perhaps it was anyway), he isn't Stafford (averaging an awful 9.2 points) now, either.
Jennings, who sat in Week 7 with a hip injury, is the obvious beneficiary for the 49ers when he returns to health, but Pearsall comes with pedigree, too. He was a first-round pick from Florida this past summer. McMillan feels like the top fill-in Buccaneer, since the third-round pick from Washington boasts a target in each game and could fill Godwin's slot duties. He is not new to the offense.
The best thing fantasy managers can do here is add one of these likely fill-ins and quickly trade them for more established producers. Perhaps this is wishful thinking, but fantasy managers will believe what they want to believe. Jennings still boasts the top individual fantasy performance of this season, regardless of position. It is easy to dream about future production. For now, we continue to rank Mayfield and Purdy kindly as if they retain most of their value, that they will find new options to target. We will be watching.