Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 7, which kicked off Thursday with the Broncos at the Saints.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities, and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
Jump to:
NE-JAX | SEA-ATL | TEN-BUF | CIN-CLE | HOU-GB | MIA-IND
DET-MIN | PHI-NYG | LV-LAR | CAR-WAS | KC-SF | NYJ-PIT | BAL-TB | LAC-ARI
New England Patriots @ Jacksonville Jaguars
Projected Score: Jaguars 23, Patriots 19
Lineup locks: Rhamondre Stevenson, Brian Thomas Jr., Evan Engram
Travis Etienne Jr. (hamstring) was limited to 11 snaps last week and is expected to miss Week 7. Tank Bigsby (seven carries on 16 snaps) and D'Ernest Johnson (six carries and two targets on 34 snaps) held down the fort last week and will do the same against New England. Bigsby has been the more productive rusher of the two this season (41-297-2 rushing and 7.2 YPC), but he's been a nonfactor in the passing game (one target), That's why (along with some garbage time) Johnson dominated the snaps last week, running 23 routes to Bigsby's six.
With the Jaguars favored, the game script should be more favorable for Bigsby this week, so he's the preferred RB2/flex option, whereas Johnson (who hasn't had any games with double-digit touches since 2021) is more of a PPR desperation option.
Over/Under: 42.3 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 62% (10th highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ Atlanta Falcons
Projected Score: Falcons 28, Seahawks 23
Lineup locks: Kirk Cousins, Bijan Robinson, Kenneth Walker III, Drake London, DK Metcalf, Darnell Mooney
Kyle Pitts sits ninth in TE fantasy points, but his production has been all over the map. He has produced a pair of top-six weeks, but has no other finishes better than 10th and has been held below 5.0 points twice. Pitts has 70-plus yards in consecutive games, but he has cleared five targets only once this season and his lone TD came in Week 1. He remains a fringe TE1, even in a good matchup against a Seattle defense that has allowed the sixth-most TE fantasy points.
Over/Under: 51.1 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 68% (6th highest)
Tennessee Titans @ Buffalo Bills
Projected Score: Bills 25, Titans 17
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, James Cook, Tony Pollard, Dalton Kincaid
The Bills acquired Amari Cooper on Tuesday, and it won't take him long to establish himself as Buffalo's top wide receiver. It's possible he'll be limited a bit in his team debut, and the matchup is brutal against a Titans defense that has allowed the fewest yards, second-fewest fantasy points and a league-low 5.7 YPT to wideouts this season. In fact, only one WR (slot man Josh Downs) has cleared 12.5 fantasy points against the Titans. Cooper has WR2 upside moving forward, but he's best valued as a flex in his team debut.
No other Buffalo WR absolutely needs to be rostered, although Khalil Shakir (zero games with more than six targets even before Cooper's arrival) and rookie Keon Coleman (zero games over five targets) are acceptable bench stashes. Note that the target shares for Cook and Kincaid shouldn't be affected more than slightly here and both remain solid fantasy starts.
Calvin Ridley was held without a single catch on eight targets against the Colts on Sunday. The veteran receiver now has 14 yards on two catches during his past three games and has been held to under 8.0 fantasy points in four of his five games. Ridley's 20% target share is his lowest since 2019, and a massive 30% of balls thrown his way have been charted as being off-target (sixth highest in the league). Ridley is being paid to be Tennessee's top receiver, but the connection simply isn't there with Will Levis. He belongs on benches, especially with a Bills defense on tap that has allowed the eighth-fewest WR fantasy points.
Over/Under: 41.4 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 77% (3rd highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Cleveland Browns
Projected Score: Bengals 25, Browns 16
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, David Njoku
Chase Brown's role has progressively increased throughout the first six weeks of the season, and he reached another milestone in Week 6. After never having played on more than 42% of snaps in a single game, Brown played on a career-high 62% against the Giants. The usage led to his third straight game with at least 12 touches, 54 yards and 14 fantasy points. He has four touchdowns during the span. Zack Moss will remain involved, but Brown now appears to be atop the depth chart, which makes him the better RB2/flex option against Cleveland.
With Cooper having been dealt to Buffalo, there are no Cleveland WRs anywhere near "lineup lock" status. As it was, Cooper had been struggling with efficiency, and the team's QB play doesn't figure to be any better for Jerry Jeudy (who has yet to clear 13.2 fantasy points in any game), Elijah Moore (yet to clear 10.4) or Cedric Tillman (four total targets on the season). Jeudy is the best bench option of the bunch, but he'll be a risky Week 7 start -- even against a struggling Bengals CB room.
Over/Under: 40.7 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 80% (2nd highest)
Houston Texans @ Green Bay Packers
Projected Score: Packers 24, Texans 20
Lineup locks: Joe Mixon, Josh Jacobs, Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Jayden Reed
With Nico Collins (IR) sidelined, Dalton Schultz handled a season-high eight targets (26% share), which marked his most in any game since Week 16 of last season. The usage didn't lead to much (27 yards), though, and he's now been held below 35 yards and 7.5 fantasy points in all six games this season. Despite the sluggish start, Schultz sits second in routes and eighth in targets among tight ends this season. He has been a top-12 fantasy tight end in each of the past four seasons. Consider him to be a streaming option this week against a Packers defense that has allowed the third-most receptions and fantasy points to tight ends.
Over/Under: 43.8 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Packers 63% (8th highest)
Miami Dolphins @ Indianapolis Colts
Projected Score: Colts 23, Dolphins 17
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, De'Von Achane, Tyreek Hill
Achane barely qualifies as a "lineup lock" this week, so I understand if you have some reservations. The second-year back exploded out of the gate with 23-plus fantasy points against two of the league's worst run defenses, but he followed that up with sub-9.0 showings against Seattle and Tennessee before leaving Week 5 due to injury on his fourth touch. Achane has been a nonfactor on the ground (3.3 yards per carry), and 49.9% of his fantasy points have come on his receiving lines during Weeks 1-2. Healthy off the bye, Achane remains the lead back, and he's set up with a decent matchup against a Colts defense that has allowed the third-most RB yards this season.
Over/Under: 40.4 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Colts 72% (5th highest)
Detroit Lions @ Minnesota Vikings
Projected Score: Lions 23, Vikings 20
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Despite having played on only 42% of Detroit's offensive snaps this season, Montgomery sits at RB10 in terms of fantasy points. He has had at least 70 yards, 1 TD and 15.0 fantasy points in all five games. Montgomery's résumé is impressive, but it's fair to wonder whether it's sustainable, considering he's handling only 47% of carries and 7% of targets. He'll have his hands full this week against a Minnesota defense that has allowed the second-fewest RB fantasy points and only two touchdowns to the position this season. Jordan Mason (17.4 points) is the only back to have reached 12.0 fantasy points against them this season.
Over/Under: 43.4 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Lions 59% (11th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Projected Score: Eagles 23, Giants 19
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Malik Nabers, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith
With Devin Singletary sidelined the past two weeks, it's been the Tyrone Tracy Jr. show in New York. The fifth-round rookie followed a 19-touch, 130-yard effort in Week 5 with a 23-touch, 107-yard, 1-TD outing in Week 6. Tracy had 17-plus carries in both games and handled a career-high six targets this past Sunday. If Singletary remains out against the Eagles, Tracy should be viewed as a solid RB2 option. However, if the reliable Singletary returns, a committee is likely, perhaps with Tracy as the secondary option. In that scenario, both players would be risky flex options and best left on benches.
Over/Under: 42.2 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 64% (7th highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams
Projected Score: Rams 24, Raiders 17
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Jakobi Meyers, Brock Bowers
With Davante Adams (since traded to the Jets) and Meyers sidelined last week, Tre Tucker had his first opportunity to run as the Raiders' No. 1 wide receiver. It didn't go well. The 2023 third-rounder was held without a catch on two targets despite playing on 95% of snaps. Adams' departure locks Tucker into a full-time role, but boom/bust production should be expected. While he has had two 15-plus fantasy point efforts this season, he also has managed four games with no more than 5.0 fantasy points. Whereas a healthy Meyers (nine-plus targets in three straight games) is a lineup lock in this matchup against the Rams, Tucker should be considered for your flex only if Meyers remains sidelined.
Over/Under: 40.4 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 74% (4th highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Washington Commanders
Projected Score: Commanders 31, Panthers 18
Lineup locks: Jayden Daniels, Brian Robinson Jr., Chuba Hubbard, Diontae Johnson, Terry McLaurin
With Robinson sidelined in Week 6, Austin Ekeler soaked up nine carries and five targets on 41 snaps (73%). The veteran back was limited to 68 yards, but that was actually the second most produced by any back against the Ravens' elite run defense this season. Ekeler averaged 7.5 fantasy PPG during his first four games, so he won't be a recommended flex if Robinson returns this week. However, if he's called upon for another start, he'll be in the RB1 discussion in an elite matchup against a Carolina defense that has allowed the most yards, touchdowns and fantasy points to RBs. The Panthers have allowed a 20-plus fantasy points effort to an opposing back in five out of six games.
Over/Under: 48.7 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Commanders 89% (Highest)
Kansas City Chiefs @ San Francisco 49ers
Projected Score: 49ers 24, Chiefs 23
Lineup locks: Kareem Hunt, Jordan Mason, Deebo Samuel Sr., Brandon Aiyuk, George Kittle, Travis Kelce
When we last saw the Chiefs (Week 5), JuJu Smith-Schuster seemed to establish himself as the team's top wide receiver. The veteran receiver played on 53 snaps (66%) and turned eight targets (most among the Chiefs wideouts) into 130 yards. It was Smith-Schuster's best fantasy outing since he put up 22.4 points while with the Chiefs in Week 14 of the 2022 season. Smith-Schuster was fantasy's WR27 that season, ranking top 25 in both receptions and yards. With Rashee Rice and Hollywood Brown both out for at least the rest of the regular season, it's very possible Smith-Schuster will lead this WR room moving forward. Still, he's best valued this week as a flex option against a solid 49ers defense.
Over/Under: 47.5 (4th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 53% (12th highest)
New York Jets @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Projected Score: Jets 21, Steelers 21
Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Garrett Wilson, Davante Adams
The Jets' passing game received a big shake-up Tuesday when the team acquired Adams from the Raiders. It's possible that Adams (hamstring) will be out or limited in his Jets debut this week, but the bottom line is this: Adams has had a lengthy connection with Aaron Rodgers and is a sure bet to handle a substantial target share in the 25-30% range.
That, of course, means fewer targets for others, especially secondary options such as Allen Lazard, Mike Williams and Tyler Conklin. None of those players figures to make for a consistent fantasy option. Wilson is likely to see a slight dip, but, especially after having just posted consecutive top-five fantasy outings, he'll join Adams in the weekly WR1 mix.
Aaron Rodgers' streaming value receives a boost, although his lack of rushing will continue to limit his ceiling. Hall's target share might see a slight dip, but not enough to knock him out of the RB1 mix. This offense has a very tough challenge against Pittsburgh here in Week 7, but Hall, Wilson and (if he plays) Adams should be in lineups.
Over/Under: 42.9 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 52% (15th highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Projected Score: Buccaneers 26, Ravens 26
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Baker Mayfield, Derrick Henry, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Zay Flowers
With Rachaad White out last week, Bucky Irving (14 carries and two targets on 46 snaps) and Sean Tucker (14 carries and three targets on 27 snaps) handled the load in the Tampa Bay backfield. Both were phenomenal, with Irving totaling 105 yards and one score on 16 touches and Tucker racking up 192 yards and two touchdowns on 17 touches.
Tucker scored roughly one-third of his points in garbage time, but he had a big fantasy day either way and figures to have at least a small role in this backfield moving forward. Of course, how much of one will depend on White's health and, if he returns this week, this is a situation best avoided. The Ravens have allowed the second-fewest yards and fourth-fewest fantasy points to RBs. Backs are averaging a league-low 2.9 yards per carry against Baltimore.
Over/Under: 51.8 (Highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 53% (13th highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Arizona Cardinals
Projected Score: Chargers 23, Cardinals 22
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, J.K. Dobbins, James Conner, Marvin Harrison Jr., Trey McBride
Gus Edwards was placed on IR last week, which opened the door for Dobbins (a career-high 25 carries and three targets on 55 snaps) to play a feature-back role, with rookie Kimani Vidal (four carries and two targets on 18 snaps) and Hassan Haskins (two carries on three snaps) picking up the scraps. Dobbins is a no-doubter "lineup lock," but no other Chargers back should be near your starting lineup. Vidal caught a touchdown on his first NFL touch, but he's unlikely to see a big boost in snaps (he played 24% in his debut) or touches (6) unless Dobbins misses time. The rookie is best stashed on benches as an insurance "lottery ticket."
Over/Under: 44.3 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 53% (14th highest)