Expected fantasy points (xFP) strip away player talent and efficiency and focus solely on opportunity.
FORP -- fantasy points over replacement player -- is the difference between a player's actual fantasy point total (FF points) and his xFP (expected total).
Running back adjustments are made as follows:
Rushing attempts: No change
Rushing yardage: Rush attempts multiplied by a rusher's expected yardage based on position, in-box defenders and rush direction
Rushing touchdowns: Rushing xTD
Targets: No change
Receptions: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected catch rate based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving yardage: Targets multiplied by a receiver's expected yardage based on depth of throw, location and position
Receiving touchdowns: Receiving xTD
Two-point conversions: xTD multiplied by the league average two-point rate
Fumbles lost: Touches multiplied by the league average rate
Return touchdowns: Excluded due to extreme rareness and randomness
Here is the 2024 xFP leaderboard for running backs:
2024 xFP: Running Backs (incl. adjusted stats) Rk. Player xFP Actual FORP G Ru Yd Ru TD Rec Re Yd Re TD 1. Bijan Robinson , ATL 316 342 26 17 1390 12 60 425 1 2. De'Von Achane , MIA 287 300 13 17 894 9 73 497 4 3. Saquon Barkley , PHI 278 355 77 16 1494 10 33 271 2 4. Jahmyr Gibbs , DET 276 363 87 17 1090 10 52 383 3 5. Kyren Williams , LAR 272 272 0 16 1380 12 33 223 2 6. Aaron Jones , MIN 271 242 -30 17 1099 9 49 380 4 7. Alvin Kamara , NO 267 265 -2 14 980 6 72 536 1 8. Josh Jacobs , GB 266 293 27 17 1282 12 35 244 1 9. Chase Brown , CIN 260 255 -5 16 994 9 51 379 3 10. Chuba Hubbard , CAR 250 242 -8 15 1046 11 43 288 2 11. Joe Mixon , HOU 247 241 -6 14 1045 10 40 293 2 12. Breece Hall , NYJ 244 241 -4 16 945 5 62 446 2 13. Jonathan Taylor , IND 241 245 4 14 1305 11 25 165 1 14. Derrick Henry , BAL 237 336 100 17 1339 12 18 119 1 15. James Conner , ARI 235 254 19 16 996 9 46 289 1 16. D'Andre Swift , CHI 223 215 -9 17 1095 7 43 309 0 17. Najee Harris , PIT 223 205 -18 17 1112 8 39 263 0 18. Bucky Irving , TB 220 244 25 17 910 8 44 271 2 19. Tony Pollard , TEN 218 201 -18 16 1139 4 43 325 1 20. Rico Dowdle , DAL 208 198 -11 16 1046 4 39 291 2 21. James Cook , BUF 206 267 60 16 889 10 31 219 1 22. Rhamondre Stevenson , NE 197 176 -21 15 872 7 33 230 2 23. Javonte Williams , DEN 196 158 -39 17 581 5 58 419 1 24. David Montgomery , DET 196 222 26 14 757 11 33 223 1 25. Kareem Hunt , KC 196 155 -40 13 885 9 26 162 2 26. Kenneth Walker III , SEA 188 181 -7 11 675 7 46 292 1 27. Tyrone Tracy Jr. , NYG 186 182 -4 17 836 4 44 297 1 28. Rachaad White , TB 180 200 19 16 631 4 47 317 2 29. J.K. Dobbins , LAC 175 192 17 13 833 6 31 216 1 30. Zach Charbonnet , SEA 171 187 16 17 594 6 44 295 0 31. Brian Robinson Jr. , WAS 169 160 -9 14 833 8 20 143 1 32. Travis Etienne Jr. , JAX 169 130 -38 15 659 4 43 291 2 33. Alexander Mattison , LV 157 137 -19 14 568 6 36 264 1 34. Jaylen Warren , PIT 138 124 -14 15 521 2 39 268 1 35. Tank Bigsby , JAX 128 129 1 16 711 7 10 68 0 36. Ameer Abdullah , LV 121 125 4 16 291 3 38 266 2 37. Jerome Ford , CLE 121 134 13 14 479 2 34 248 1 38. Austin Ekeler , WAS 117 132 15 12 344 4 35 210 1 39. Jordan Mason , SF 113 115 2 12 627 5 10 89 0 40. Justice Hill , BAL 110 127 17 15 209 1 43 314 2 41. Antonio Gibson , NE 109 103 -6 17 543 2 22 176 0 42. Tyler Allgeier , ATL 107 106 -1 17 606 5 11 72 0 43. Jaleel McLaughlin , DEN 105 97 -8 16 499 3 23 131 1 44. Tyjae Spears , TEN 104 114 10 12 381 3 28 203 0 45. Devin Singletary , NYG 99 97 -3 15 473 3 21 137 0 46. Zack Moss , CIN 98 82 -16 8 313 4 23 155 1 47. Ray Davis , BUF 94 116 22 17 475 2 15 109 1 48. Braelon Allen , NYJ 91 85 -6 17 399 2 24 169 0 49. Cam Akers , HOU 32 30 -2 5 177 1 6 40 0 49. Cam Akers , MIN 56 63 7 12 279 2 10 58 1 50. Raheem Mostert , MIA 88 71 -17 13 368 3 19 135 0 51. Emanuel Wilson , GB 85 96 11 17 454 3 12 71 0 52. Nick Chubb , CLE 84 63 -21 8 431 4 9 63 0 53. Kenneth Gainwell , PHI 83 63 -20 17 329 3 18 128 0 54. Roschon Johnson , CHI 80 77 -3 14 214 5 16 122 0 55. Miles Sanders , CAR 75 77 2 11 242 2 21 166 1 56. Trey Sermon , IND 75 54 -21 17 238 4 16 109 0 57. Isaac Guerendo , SF 74 94 20 16 344 3 13 103 0 58. Isiah Pacheco , KC 73 57 -16 7 363 2 13 85 1 59. Ty Johnson , BUF 73 92 19 17 176 1 16 181 2 60. Ezekiel Elliott , DAL 70 58 -13 15 316 3 12 90 0 61. Samaje Perine , KC 69 81 12 17 92 1 27 200 2 62. Gus Edwards , LAC 68 64 -4 11 408 4 4 28 0 63. Dare Ogunbowale , HOU 64 56 -8 17 133 1 20 167 2 64. D'Onta Foreman , CLE 60 33 -27 11 303 3 7 45 0 65. Christian McCaffrey , SF 57 48 -9 4 222 1 15 130 1 66. Kyle Juszczyk , SF 54 58 4 17 18 1 22 217 1 67. Jeremy McNichols , WAS 53 64 11 17 247 2 10 60 0 68. D'Ernest Johnson , JAX 51 36 -15 14 139 1 16 112 1 69. Carson Steele , KC 50 24 -26 17 238 2 8 59 0 70. Sean Tucker , TB 49 69 19 17 212 2 10 70 0 71. Blake Corum , LAR 48 34 -15 17 260 2 7 43 0 72. Audric Estime , DEN 48 49 1 13 312 2 4 25 0 73. Khalil Herbert , CHI 16 10 -6 6 24 2 2 12 0 73. Khalil Herbert , CIN 31 22 -10 8 125 0 8 52 1 74. Zamir White , LV 47 29 -17 8 260 2 6 41 0 75. Pierre Strong Jr. , CLE 45 35 -10 14 126 0 18 133 0 76. Emari Demercado , ARI 45 55 10 13 115 0 17 139 0 77. Tyler Goodson , IND 44 44 1 16 136 1 12 86 1 78. Jamaal Williams , NO 44 37 -6 14 198 1 9 70 0 79. Jaylen Wright , MIA 43 27 -16 15 310 1 5 29 0 80. Patrick Taylor , SF 43 30 -13 13 171 2 8 66 0 81. Chris Brooks , GB 42 42 0 15 161 1 11 69 0 82. Cordarrelle Patterson , PIT 42 38 -5 13 147 0 11 96 1 83. Trey Benson , ARI 41 47 6 13 273 1 5 33 0 84. Hassan Haskins , LAC 40 33 -7 17 116 4 2 19 0 85. Isaiah Davis , NYJ 40 46 6 17 137 0 11 76 1 86. Michael Carter , ARI 40 36 -4 3 144 1 9 62 0 87. Ty Chandler , MIN 38 28 -10 17 247 1 5 33 0 88. Jordan Mims , NO 35 26 -9 11 86 0 15 101 0 89. Kimani Vidal , LAC 33 33 0 10 189 1 6 47 0 90. Eric Gray , NYG 33 17 -15 17 55 2 9 60 0 91. Kendre Miller , NO 31 29 -2 6 179 0 7 47 0 92. Sincere McCormick , LV 31 27 -4 5 158 1 5 39 0 93. Michael Burton , DEN 30 29 -1 17 20 1 8 58 1 94. Hunter Luepke , DAL 30 27 -3 16 48 1 11 100 0 95. JaMycal Hasty , NE 28 29 1 15 97 0 10 66 0 96. Chris Rodriguez Jr. , WAS 28 32 4 9 153 2 1 5 0 97. Alec Ingold , MIA 24 26 2 15 36 0 10 75 0 98. Dameon Pierce , HOU 23 44 20 11 161 0 3 20 0 99. Craig Reynolds , DET 21 21 0 17 134 0 4 28 0 100. Ronnie Rivers , LAR 21 18 -3 17 105 0 5 30 0 101. Kenny McIntosh , SEA 21 22 2 17 140 0 3 22 0 102. Will Shipley , PHI 21 16 -5 16 126 0 3 23 0 103. Julius Chestnut , TEN 17 13 -4 17 95 1 3 15 0 104. Deuce Vaughn , DAL 17 12 -5 7 79 0 4 33 0 105. Jeff Wilson Jr. , MIA 13 11 -3 9 69 0 2 17 0 106. Clyde Edwards-Helaire , NO 13 10 -3 2 56 0 4 27 0 107. Jonathon Brooks , CAR 12 8 -5 3 36 1 3 14 0 108. C.J. Ham , MIN 12 14 2 17 8 0 5 32 0 109. DeeJay Dallas , ARI 11 21 10 17 34 0 3 16 0 110. Terrell Jennings , NE 11 3 -7 3 59 0 0 16 0 111. Mike Boone , CAR 10 6 -4 6 53 0 3 16 0 112. J.J. Taylor , HOU 10 6 -4 5 45 0 3 16 0 113. Patrick Ricard , BAL 10 17 8 17 0 0 4 29 0 114. Jermar Jefferson , DET 9 4 -5 2 24 1 1 5 0 115. Tyler Badie , DEN 8 9 1 3 38 0 3 15 0 116. Rasheen Ali , BAL 8 3 -5 6 43 0 2 10 0 117. Keaton Mitchell , BAL 8 7 -1 5 65 0 1 6 0 118. Raheem Blackshear , CAR 8 8 0 16 67 0 0 0 0 119. Travis Homer , CHI 7 6 -1 10 28 0 3 16 0 120. Scott Matlock , LAC 7 7 0 17 0 0 4 27 0 121. Sione Vaki , DET 7 8 1 16 24 0 2 22 0 122. Jacob Kibodi , CLE 6 5 -2 1 21 0 2 19 0 123. Jase McClellan , ATL 6 3 -3 2 60 0 0 0 0 124. Dalvin Cook , DAL 5 4 -1 2 36 0 1 7 0 125. Chris Collier , BAL 0 0 0 5 0 0 0 0 0 125. Chris Collier , LV 5 2 -3 3 20 0 1 10 0 126. Aaron Shampklin , PIT 5 2 -3 3 24 0 0 0 0 127. Adam Prentice , NO 5 0 -5 17 0 0 2 23 0 128. Blake Watson , DEN 4 3 -1 2 17 0 1 11 0 129. MarShawn Lloyd , GB 4 3 -1 1 24 0 1 6 0 130. Myles Gaskin , MIN 3 2 -1 5 14 0 1 6 0 131. Andrew Beck , GB 1 0 -1 3 0 0 1 5 0
