Valkyries projections vs. first-year WNBA expansion teams

SAN FRANCISCO -- Kate Martin turned toward the crowd at Chase Center on Tuesday night and waved her hands up and down, bringing the Golden State Valkyries fans to their feet and eliciting a thunderous cheer that bounced around the 18,000-seat arena.

Ever since the WNBA announced 19 months ago that an expansion team was coming to the Bay Area, there has been a buzz around the city -- whether it was fans wearing team gear before any players had been selected, or the franchise surpassing 15,000 season-ticket deposits, becoming the first team in women's sports history to do so prior to its first season.

The anticipation built up to Tuesday's preseason opener -- the first game in franchise history, the first bucket, the first everything.

As the first WNBA expansion team since 2008 -- and one whose ownership group has a history of providing whatever resources are needed to be successful -- a lot of eyes are on the Valkyries as they navigate their inaugural season. Like he did when he purchased the Golden State Warriors in 2010, majority owner Joe Lacob proclaimed the Valkyries would win a championship in their first five years.

That prophecy came true for the Warriors, but Lacob wasn't starting from ground zero with his NBA team. Historically, expansion teams in the WNBA have taken some time to build success. And balancing that level of patience with a competitive desire to win will be what defines Golden State's first season.

"Our motto is going to be: 'Process over results.' Every day we want to get better, so what does that look like?" Valkyries coach Natalie Nakase told ESPN. "We have to check that there is progress. It's a process ... and we're looking at the process as wins rather than the immediate results.

"I told them from day one, it's OK to fail. I want you to make as many mistakes as possible because that's what we coaches are here for. ... We want growing pains. We want players to have the perspective that mistakes are good."

Those growing pains were evident in Tuesday's 83-82 preseason loss to the Los Angeles Sparks, when the Valkyries missed their first 13 3-pointers and committed 11 first-half turnovers. Still, they rallied from a 14-point deficit to take the lead in the third quarter.

As they build the franchise's foundation, general manager Ohemaa Nyanin said the Valkyries will develop their identity throughout the season, emphasizing ultra-competitive and high-IQ players. When Golden State opened camp in late April, Nakase stressed the need for players to be open-minded and to let go of anything they did overseas or at Unrivaled during the offseason. She didn't want anyone comparing Golden State's new style with their former WNBA teams.

The Valkyries have taken to the message.

"We know we're a part of history and we know that it's something super special," said Martin, who played for Nakase last season when they were both with the Las Vegas Aces. "So, we're just going to make the most of every opportunity that we have."

Nakase and her staff hand-selected each person on the roster through the expansion draft, college draft and free agency, bringing in players they thought could best execute the team's desired defense-first, quick-paced style. Trusted veterans, such as Kayla Thornton, Tiffany Hayes and Monique Billings, primarily make up the roster. Though Martin is in just her second season, she has proved to be a reliable role player and fan favorite.

"I was talking to close friends before camp, and I'm just like, 'I think this is going to work.' And then on Day 1, I was like, 'Oh my gosh, this is actually going to come together,'" Nakase said. "It's a credit to the players' openness ... they came in and trusted us right away."

Golden State isn't feeling an overwhelming sense of expectations.

"Pressure, to me, is a made-up word," Nakase said. "We were prepared, and when you are prepared, that takes away the pressure. ... As long as we understand how to rebound and to recover, there is no pressure." Using history and analytics, ESPN looks at what we can expect from the Valkyries in their first season.

Our first @valkyries game was more than we could've imagined 🫶 pic.twitter.com/Le77kFxMLm

— Chase Center (@ChaseCenter) May 7, 2025

WNBA expansion teams start slow

The history of first-year WNBA teams features a lot of losing. Of the seven WNBA teams that have fallen short of a 15% win percentage, three were in their inaugural season -- including both teams to enter the league through expansion since 2000, the 2006 Chicago Sky (5-29, .147) and the 2008 Atlanta Dream (4-30, .118).

In addition to those three teams, the 2000 Seattle Storm (6-26, .188) were also outscored by double figures per game, meaning half of the eight first-year teams have done so.

The three expansion teams that won at least 30% of their games, led by the 1999 Minnesota Lynx (15-17, .469), came during the league's first four years when rapid expansion took the WNBA from eight teams in the opening 1997 season to 16 in 2000. They also benefited from the absorption of players from the rival ABL after it ceased operations in December 1998.

That Lynx team -- coach Brian Agler had led the Columbus Quest to both titles in the ABL's brief existence -- featured five players from the Quest, most notably seven-time All-Star Katie Smith, who was allocated to Minnesota outside of the expansion draft.

This era of expansion teams will benefit from the WNBA's evolution. In particular, the growth of free agency gave the Valkyries and the teams coming online in 2026 in Portland and Toronto access to better talent than is available through the expansion draft. Still, starting slowly is probably a wise decision.

Just two years after going 4-30 in their inaugural season, the Atlanta Dream reached the WNBA Finals, led by the No. 1 pick of the following draft -- high-scoring Angel McCoughtry. And the Storm parlayed back-to-back No. 1 picks (Lauren Jackson in 2001 and Sue Bird in 2002) into the first of four championships in just their fifth year of existence.

Projecting the Valkyries

Despite the track record for expansion teams, Vegas is relatively optimistic about Golden State's outlook. The Valkyries' over/under total of 11.5 wins at ESPN BET, albeit the lowest for any team this season, would still translate into a 26% win percentage that would be better than the average first-year franchise (25%).

That's partially because Golden State might have company near the bottom of the standings. After seeing their entire starting five depart via free agency or trade, the Connecticut Sun have a win total of 13.5 games, while the Washington Mystics are at 16.5 games after drafting three players in the first round last month (one of whom, possible starting point guard Georgia Amoore, is now expected to miss an extended period with an ACL injury).

By virtue of adding a number of rotation players from other teams in the expansion draft, the Valkyries' roster actually played more minutes in the WNBA last season than the current rosters for the Sun and Mystics -- dramatically so, in Washington's case.

That depth should help Golden State handle the longest season in WNBA history, expanded to 44 games. My stats-based projections are even a bit more optimistic about the Valkyries, projecting them for 13 wins -- ahead of Connecticut's league-low 11.