Welcome to the Fantasy Football Playbook for Week 13, which kicked off Thursday with the Seahawks at the Cowboys.
This column features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long leagues and DFS. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff. Odds by ESPN BET.)
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Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 @ New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Rhamondre Stevenson, Keenan Allen, Demario Douglas
If you're a Chargers wideout and your jersey doesn't say Allen, you're not to be trusted in fantasy. Jalen Guyton has been back for three games and, while he had a solid 4-41-1 showing on six targets in Week 10, he's otherwise totaled just 4 yards on seven targets. Quentin Johnston, meanwhile, has cleared 10.0 fantasy points only once (a 4-34-1 effort in Week 10) and has yet to clear six targets in any game. Both receivers are barely worth considering for roster spots.
Over/Under: 42.7 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Chargers 69% (5th highest)
Detroit Lions -4 @ New Orleans Saints
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Jahmyr Gibbs, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Chris Olave, Sam LaPorta
Olave (concussion) and Rashid Shaheed (quad) both left Sunday's game early and are in doubt for Week 13. Both players were massively involved prior to their injuries, with Shaheed seeing five targets on 13 routes and Olave a team-high nine targets on 21 routes. If one or both are out this week -- and Shaheed is all but a lock to sit -- A.T. Perry (a 73% snap share but only two targets in Week 12), Lynn Bowden Jr. (two carries and two targets on 63% of snaps) and Keith Kirkwood (three targets on 36%) are next up at wide receiver. None of this trio will be a safe fantasy option, but Juwan Johnson (seven targets last week) appears to be fully healthy and he joins Taysom Hill as a viable TE starting option.
Over/Under: 47.6 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Lions 56% (11th highest)
Atlanta Falcons -3 @ New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, Garrett Wilson
After three straight games with 55 or fewer yards, Drake London rebounded with a solid 5-91-0 receiving line on seven targets in Week 12. Unfortunately, that wasn't enough for a top-25 WR fantasy outing -- something he's achieved only three times this season. In fact, London has just one weekly finish better than WR19 (WR5 in Week 6). London continues to be limited by the league's run-heaviest offense and is averaging only 6.7 targets per game with two touchdowns on the season. He's been aligning in the slot more lately (notable as he's set to face the Jets this week), but the limited volume and tough matchup leaves him as no more than a flex play.
Over/Under: 31.3 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 64% (6th highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Jaylen Warren, Najee Harris, Marquise Brown, Diontae Johnson, Trey McBride
A new offensive coordinator equals a new world for Pat Freiermuth. The young tight end put up career-high marks in both receptions (9) and yards (120) on Sunday, which is pretty incredible when you consider he totaled just nine catches for 60 yards during his first five games of the season. Freiermuth was fantasy's TE7 in 2022, so there's certainly reason for optimism that he can return to the weekly TE1 ranks. With six teams on a bye, Freiermuth is a back-end starting option this week.
James Conner has lost his lineup lock status after five consecutive games below 9.0 fantasy points. Conner hasn't found the end zone since Week 3 and, in his most recent game, he was limited to just 39% of snaps (easily his lowest in a healthy game this season). In that Week 12 game, Conner handled Arizona's first five RB carries, but only one of the final eight. Granted the game was a blowout loss, but Conner played into the fourth quarter and was clearly deferring some work both to newcomer Michael Carter and a now-healthy Emari Demercado as early as the second quarter. Conner remains the lead back and has 16-plus touches in two out of three games since returning from injury, so while he's not as attractive a fantasy play as he was earlier this season, he remains a viable flex.
Over/Under: 43.4 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 69% (4th highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Rachaad White, Mike Evans, Adam Thielen, Chris Godwin
It's risky to invest in any Carolina offensive player not named Thielen, but Jonathan Mingo is a name to monitor. The second-round rookie has seen at least six targets in three straight games and, while the first two outings resulted in a total of 26 yards, he put together a solid 4-60-0 receiving line in Week 12. Mingo has yet to produce more than 10.2 fantasy points in any single game, so we don't want to get carried away, but he does have a terrific matchup this week against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed the most WR yards and fourth-most WR fantasy points this season. Mingo is a deep-league flex option.
Over/Under: 38.8 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 76% (3rd highest)
Indianapolis Colts -1 @ Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Zack Moss, Derrick Henry, Michael Pittman Jr., DeAndre Hopkins
Josh Downs was extremely busy in his first game back at full health in Week 12. The rookie soaked up a career-high 13 targets -- his second game with at least 12 this season. Downs was limited to only 43 yards on five catches, but had produced at least 13.1 fantasy points in his prior four full games (a 16.6 average). The slot man has another solid matchup this week against Tennessee and can be considered as a WR3 option.
Jonathan Taylor is dealing with a thumb injury and will miss a few weeks. While he's out, Moss will return to a feature back role. When Taylor was out/limited during Weeks 2-5, Moss averaged 24.3 touches, 129.3 yards and 21.4 fantasy points per game, with four scores during the span. He was fantasy's RB4 those four weeks and immediately returns to the weekly RB1 mix. Fire him up against the Titans.
Over/Under: 45.7 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Titans 50% (13th highest)
Miami Dolphins -9.5 @ Washington Commanders
FedExField, Landover, Maryland
Sunday, 1 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Tua Tagovailoa, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Terry McLaurin
De'Von Achane is expected to return this week, and while he's certainly risky after suffering a setback on his third snap in his most recent game, his explosiveness in a terrific matchup is enough to make him a viable RB2. Raheem Mostert, meanwhile, has had 20-plus carries in two straight games with Achane out, but he's now ticketed for a big dip in that department and hasn't been an option in the passing game (just 13 yards on four targets over his last five games). Consider Mostert, who has 15 touchdowns in 11 games, to be a flex option.
Curtis Samuel was back at full health in Week 12 -- and it showed. The versatile playmaker handled 12 targets (his most since he had a career-high 13 in Week 2 of 2019), which resulted in 100 yards on nine receptions. Samuel had been in a bit of a slump (injuries were a culprit), but prior to that, he had scored a touchdown in three consecutive games. Samuel's usage in one of the league's pass-heaviest offenses is enough to keep him in the WR3 discussion.
Over/Under: 44.6 (6th highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 82% (2nd highest)
Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans -3.5
NRG Stadium, Houston
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: C.J. Stroud, Javonte Williams, Tank Dell, Nico Collins, Courtland Sutton
Dameon Pierce returned from injury in Week 12 and handled five carries and one target on 11 snaps. Devin Singletary remained the Texans' lead back, soaking up six carries and seven targets on 47 snaps. The duo obviously split carries fairly evenly, but Singletary had a massive edge in passing situations (30 routes, compared to four for Pierce). We should expect similar usage moving forward and, since Stroud doesn't target the RB position much (last week was a rare exception), neither is a safe fantasy play. Of course, if you have to pick one, Singletary gets the edge against a Denver defense that has allowed the most RB yardage and fantasy points this season.
Dalton Schultz sits eighth in TE fantasy points and has delivered six top-eight fantasy outings in his last eight games, but we may have a problem. The veteran tight end's two-target outing in Week 12 was not a fluke, as he was limited to a season-low 47% of snaps. Schultz ran a route on 16 of Houston's first 23 passing plays, but then was benched, seeing the field on none of the final 14. Brevin Jordan replaced him and ran all 14 routes. Perhaps Schultz will return to an every-down role this week, but there's obvious reason for concern.
Over/Under: 46.8 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Texans 64% (7th highest)
Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Rams -3.5
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Kyren Williams, Cooper Kupp, Puka Nacua, David Njoku
We're still starting Kupp and Nacua, but the dynamic duo is ranked much lower than usual. Kupp has been held below 7.0 fantasy points in five straight games (he left one injured) and his lone touchdown came back in Week 6. In fact, Kupp had 148 yards in that Week 6 game, but has totaled just 127 yards in his five games since. Nacua, meanwhile, has been below 8.0 fantasy points in three of his last four outings, but he did have a solid 5-70-1 showing in Week 11. The duo is seeing enough volume to keep them on the fantasy radar -- Kupp has averaged 8.5 targets in six full games and Nacua has seen at least six targets in every game -- but this week presents a very tough matchup against a Browns defense that has allowed the fewest WR fantasy points.
Amari Cooper has produced a 7-66-0 receiving line on 21 targets during three starts by Dorian Thompson-Robinson. That's obviously not going to cut it, so the star receiver is far from a lineup lock against a Rams defense that has allowed only six WR touchdowns this season (fifth fewest). On the other hand -- especially with six teams on a bye -- Cooper is good enough to warrant flex consideration, and perhaps his output will improve if Joe Flacco is called upon to start this week.
Over/Under: 37.6 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 61% (8th highest)
San Francisco 49ers -3 @ Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Brock Purdy, Christian McCaffrey, D'Andre Swift, A.J. Brown, Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, DeVonta Smith, George Kittle
This game is loaded with lineup locks, and that includes Purdy. The 49ers quarterback had a dud last week against Seattle, but he had produced 23.8 and 26.7 points in his prior two games. Purdy, who leads the NFL in QBR, has five 20-plus point games on the season and will benefit from a good matchup against an Eagles defense that has allowed the second-most passing scores (23) and QB fantasy points. All 11 signal-callers the Eagles have faced reached double-digit fantasy points, with eight out of the 11 reaching 16.9 points.
Over/Under: 52.6 (Highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 58% (10th highest)
Kansas City Chiefs -6 @ Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Sunday, 8:20 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Aaron Jones, Isiah Pacheco, Travis Kelce
Are we back in on Rashee Rice? Perchance. The rookie played on 67% of Chiefs snaps on Sunday (second highest of his career) and delivered the goods with career-best marks in targets (10), receptions (8) and yards (107). Rice is up to five touchdowns on the season and has one in three of his last five games. Rice is doing just enough to hang on the WR3 radar, but we can't ignore that he had seen six or fewer targets in seven straight games prior to Week 12.
Jayden Reed is on a hot streak, having produced five-plus touches, 50-plus yards, exactly one touchdown and 15-plus fantasy points in three consecutive games. Of course, prior to this three-game tear, the rookie had only one top-30 fantasy outing. Perhaps Reed has hit his stride and will remain a weekly fantasy option, but he could prove a bit boom/bust in an offense spreading targets around fairly evenly. Reed will be a better WR3 option this week if Dontayvion Wicks remains sidelined, though this is a tough matchup as the Chiefs have allowed the third-lowest YPT and fourth-lowest catch rate to wideouts.
Over/Under: 43.8 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 56% (12th highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars -8
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET
Lineup locks: Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne Jr., Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Calvin Ridley, Christian Kirk, Evan Engram
Lawrence just makes the cut for "lineup lock" status with six teams on a bye this week. The third-year quarterback has not been good from a fantasy standpoint (18th in PPG), but he is trending up. Lawrence was fantasy's QB1 in Week 11 prior to a QB6 showing last week. A major reason for the two boom games was a trio of rushing scores (he had none during Weeks 1-10), but he only had 17 rushing yards during the span, which suggests some flukiness. Lawrence, whose best weekly finish prior to Week 11 was QB8 way back in Week 1, has 12 passing scores in 11 games. He's a back-end QB1 for Week 13.
Over/Under: 40.8 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 59% (9th highest)