Week 13's weekend action is right around the corner, and the betting market is loaded with player props. That's why we're bringing you the NFL betting playbook, highlighting some of the top options for each game.
Now, you might already be familiar with my weekly playbook for fantasy football, which features score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. Similarly, my weekly betting playbook features several data points for each of this weekend's scheduled games, along with my analysis of a few notable lines I'm interested in betting, although this article is designed in a way that allows you to pick your own favorites.
Note: Odds by ESPN BET and correct as of time of publication.
Los Angeles Chargers -5.5 @ New England Patriots
Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, Massachusetts
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money line: Los Angeles Chargers (-240); New England Patriots (+200)
Total: 40.5; Opened: 41.5
FPI favorite: Chargers by 5.5 (66.1% to win outright)
Projected score: Chargers 24, Patriots 19
Rhamondre Stevenson under 61.5 rush yards (-119): This is an interesting one, as Stevenson has cleared 85 rushing yards in three straight games. Of course, those showings came in decent-to-great matchups against the Commanders, Colts and Giants, whereas he failed to even reach 60 rushing yards in his prior 11 games, tracing back to last season. Stevenson handled a season-high 68% of New England's designed runs in Week 12, which is a number that figures to decrease this week with Ezekiel Elliott still very much involved. The Chargers are midpack in RB rushing yards allowed and only five backs have reached 62 yards on the ground against them this season.
Over/under: 42.7 (ninth highest)
Win probability: Chargers 69% (fifth highest)
Detroit Lions -4.5 @ New Orleans Saints
Caesars Superdome, New Orleans
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money line: Detroit Lions (-210); New Orleans Saints (+175)
Total: 46.5; Opened: 44.5
FPI favorite: Lions by 2.1 (56.3% to win outright)
Projected score: Lions 25, Saints 23
Jerry Jacobs over 3.5 total tackles (-152): Jacobs has cleared this line in seven out of 10 games this season, including two in a row. He's averaging 4.7 total tackles per game. Jacobs is an every-down perimeter corner, having played on 98% of snaps when healthy this season. The Saints have allowed the fifth-most tackles on a per-game basis and are above average in cornerback tackles surrendered.
Over/under: 47.6 (second highest)
Win probability: Lions 56% (11th highest)
Atlanta Falcons -2 @ New York Jets
MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford, New Jersey
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money line: Atlanta Falcons (-135); New York Jets (+115)
Total: 33.5; Opened: 35.5
FPI favorite: Falcons by 2.3 (57% to win outright)
Projected score: Falcons 18, Jets 14
Quincy Williams over 7.5 total tackles (+102): Williams has reached eight total tackles in 64% of his games this season. He's averaging 8.7 per game and should be able to sustain that rate considering he rarely leaves the field (a 97% snap share). Atlanta has allowed the ninth-most tackles to off-ball linebackers and 12 different LBs have reached eight against them in 11 games.
Over/under: 31.3 (13th highest)
Win probability: Falcons 64% (sixth highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Pittsburgh Steelers -5.5
Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money line: Arizona Cardinals (+210); Pittsburgh Steelers (-250)
Total: 41.5; Opened: 39.5
FPI favorite: Steelers by 7.7 (71.9% to win outright)
Projected score: Steelers 24, Cardinals 19
Najee Harris over 12.5 rushing attempts (-135): Harris has cleared 12 carries in seven out of 11 games, and seven out of nine since Week 3. Despite Jaylen Warren's emergence, Harris has remained a key part of the Pittsburgh offense, having played on 54% of snaps and handling 53% of Pittsburgh's designed runs. The key here is the matchup, as Arizona has faced a league-high 325 RB carries (27.1 per game). Fourteen backs have reached 13 carries against them this season, with those players averaging 19.7 attempts.
Over/under: 43.4 (eighth highest)
Win probability: Steelers 69% (fourth highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers -5
Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, Florida
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money line: Carolina Panthers (+200); Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-240)
Total: 36.5; Opened: 38.5
FPI favorite: Buccaneers by 7.5 (71.4% to win outright)
Projected score: Buccaneers 23, Panthers 16
Rachaad White over 16.5 rushing attempts (-108): White has reached 17 carries in only four out of 11 games this season, but when those performances happened is what's notable here. The second-year back has at least 15 carries in all four of Tampa Bay's victories (17-plus in three of them). He also had 20 carries in a close loss to Houston in Week 9 and 15 attempts last week in a seven-point loss to Indianapolis. This is notable because the Buccaneers are a home favorite against the one-win Panthers this week. Carolina has faced 270 RB rushing attempts this season (24.5 per game, which is sixth most) and seven backs have reached 17 carries against them.
Over/under: 38.8 (11th highest)
Win probability: Buccaneers 76% (third highest)
Indianapolis Colts -1 @ Tennessee Titans
Nissan Stadium, Nashville, Tennessee
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money line: Indianapolis Colts (-115); Tennessee Titans (-105)
Total: 42.5; Opened: 41.5
FPI favorite: Colts by 2.5 (57.5% to win outright)
Projected score: Titans 23, Colts 23
Gardner Minshew under 1.5 passing TDs (-161): Minshew has thrown at least two passing scores only twice in 10 games this season. In fact, the veteran quarterback has not thrown any TD passes in his past two games. The Titans have allowed only 12 passing scores over 11 games this season and only four quarterbacks -- Justin Herbert, Deshaun Watson, Baker Mayfield and Trevor Lawrence -- have thrown multiple TD passes against them.
Over/under: 45.7 (fifth highest)
Win probability: Titans 50% (13th highest)
Miami Dolphins -9.5 @ Washington Commanders
FedExField, Landover, Maryland
Sunday 1 p.m. ET
Money line: Miami Dolphins (-450); Washington Commanders (+360)
Total: 49.5; Opened: 49.5
FPI favorite: Dolphins by 11.4 (80.5% to win outright)
Projected score: Dolphins 27, Commanders 18
Curtis Samuel over 3.5 receptions (-156): Samuel has reached four catches in seven out of 11 games this season -- and that includes a stretch of five games in a row prior to his suffering an injury in Week 8, as well as a Week 12 effort in which he caught nine out of 12 targets. The versatile playmaker benefits from a Washington offense that leads the NFL with 486 passing attempts and the Commanders also rank first in WR targets (285) and receptions (188). Samuel will face a Miami defense that has allowed the third-most WR receptions along with the third-highest catch rate (69%) this season. Seventeen receivers have managed four catches against them.
Over/under: 44.6 (sixth highest)
Win probability: Dolphins 82% (second highest)
Denver Broncos @ Houston Texans -3
NRG Stadium, Houston
Sunday 4:05 p.m. ET
Money line: Denver Broncos (+135); Houston Texans (-160)
Total: 47.5; Opened: 44.5
FPI favorite: Texans by 1.5 (54.6% to win outright)
Projected score: Texans 25, Broncos 21
Javonte Williams under 58.5 rushing yards (-118): Williams has reached 59 rushing yards in four out of 10 games this season and, although all four "overs" have come in his past five games, he'll have his hands full this week against Houston's much-improved run defense. The Texans have allowed a league-low 3.4 yards per RB carry and six backs have reached 59 rushing yards against them in 11 games. Those six backs averaged 17.3 carries, whereas Williams is averaging just 15.3 carries per game (and that's excluding a Week 4 game in which he left injured after two attempts).
Over/under: 46.8 (fourth highest)
Win probability: Texans 64% (seventh highest)
Cleveland Browns @ Los Angeles Rams -3.5
SoFi Stadium, Inglewood, California
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Money line: Cleveland Browns (+160); Los Angeles Rams (-190)
Total: 40.5; Opened: 38.5
FPI favorite: Rams by 4.8 (64.1% to win outright)
Projected score: Rams 20, Browns 17
There are currently no player props of note available for this game. We will update this document once that status changes.
Over/under: 37.6 (12th highest)
Win probability: Rams 61% (eighth highest)
San Francisco 49ers -3 @ Philadelphia Eagles
Lincoln Financial Field, Philadelphia
Sunday 4:25 p.m. ET
Money line: San Francisco 49ers (-155); Philadelphia Eagles (+135)
Total: 47.5; Opened: 46.5
FPI favorite: 49ers by 1.9 (55.7% to win outright)
Line Movement Alert: Opened Eagles -1
Projected score: 49ers 27, Eagles 25
Christian McCaffrey under 17.5 rushing attempts (-137): The 49ers might be road favorites this week, but it's still going to be a major challenge for McCaffrey to hit this mark. CMC is averaging 17.5 carries per game and has reached 18 attempts in seven out of 11 games (though only twice in his past six outings). The key here is the matchup, as the Eagles have faced 16.7 RB carries per game this season (third lowest). Only one back has cleared 16 carries against Philadelphia this season (Isiah Pacheco had 19 in a game Kansas City led throughout in Week 11) and only one additional back has cleared 14 carries (James Cook had 16 last week).
Over/under: 52.6 (highest)
Win probability: 49ers 58% (10th highest)
Kansas City Chiefs -6 @ Green Bay Packers
Lambeau Field, Green Bay, Wisconsin
Sunday 8:20 p.m. ET
Money line: Kansas City Chiefs (-250); Green Bay Packers (+210)
Total: 42.5; Opened: 41.5
FPI favorite: Chiefs by 7.6 (71.8% to win outright)
Projected score: Chiefs 23, Packers 21
Christian Watson under 3.5 receptions (-104): Watson came up big on Thanksgiving with five receptions, but note that he had failed to clear three catches in his other seven games this season. Watson has appeared in 22 NFL games, but has yet to clear eight targets in any of them. Perhaps he's headed for a breakout down the stretch, but it's hard to see a big day coming here in Week 13 against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the eighth-fewest WR receptions and the fourth-lowest catch rate (58%) this season. Watson is a good bet to draw L'Jarius Sneed shadow coverage after Davante Adams (five receptions) and A.J. Brown (one catch) were held in check while being shadowed by Sneed over the past two weeks.
Over/under: 43.8 (seventh highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 56% (12th highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Jacksonville Jaguars -8.5
TIAA Bank Field, Jacksonville, Florida
Monday 8:15 p.m. ET
Money line: Cincinnati Bengals (+340); Jacksonville Jaguars (-425)
Total: 38.5; Opened: 41.5
FPI favorite: Jaguars by 5.8 (66.9% to win outright)
Projected score: Jaguars 22, Bengals 19
Travis Etienne Jr. over 2.5 receptions (+102) and Evan Engram over 4.5 receptions (+100): Etienne has had at least three catches in nine out of 11 games (82%), with the exceptions coming during two of the team's three losses -- and he had two catches in both of those contests. Engram has had at least five receptions in eight out of 11 games (73%). He had exactly four receptions in the three exceptions, two of which were during recent blowout games. Engram ranks third among tight ends in both targets and receptions. Cincinnati has allowed three-plus catches to seven different backs and the third-most TE receptions this season.
Over/under: 40.8 (10th highest)
Win probability: Jaguars 59% (ninth highest)