Each Friday during the 2023 NFL and fantasy football season, Eric Karabell will bring his always-reasonable perspective to highlight the biggest storylines heading into the weekend's games.
There is ample reason the first Monday night game of the 2023 football season features Aaron Rodgers and the New York Jets hosting their AFC East rivals, the Buffalo Bills. Everyone wants to see how Rodgers performs in his debut and if he can lead a team with a strong defense into relevancy and deep into the playoffs. Rodgers is a future Hall of Famer and four-time MVP -- most recently in 2020 and 2021 -- and some believe he can match what Tom Brady did by winning a Super Bowl in his first season with a new organization.
Of course, it all starts Monday, and fantasy football managers seemed rather tepid in investing in Rodgers for this season, perhaps due to his modest play in his final year in Green Bay. OK, so Rodgers was not so awesome last season, as 22 quarterbacks with more than 1,000 passing yards averaged more than his 14.1 fantasy points per game. Marcus Mariota was one of them until he lost the starting job, as was Sam Darnold. Carson Wentz averaged 14.1 fantasy points, and he is currently without a team to play for.
The Jets are obviously not going to move on from Rodgers if he struggles against the defensively responsible Bills, but fantasy football managers, they tend to be rather overreactive, you know. Rodgers is not among the top 10 quarterbacks in ESPN average live drafts -- and yes, you can still draft! -- but he is clearly on the proverbial hot seat for fantasy, and he is not alone. A whole bunch of quarterbacks you have heard of need to start quickly this season or risk fantasy irrelevance.
For example, Year 2 of the Russell Wilson era in Denver starts Sunday against the Las Vegas Raiders. Year 1 went rather poorly, but former New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton has arrived to fix everything. What if he cannot do so against the Raiders, who don't exactly feature a top defense of their own? Jimmy Garoppolo will be the starter for the Raiders this season after spending six years with the San Francisco 49ers. What if Garoppolo outshines Wilson? It could happen!
Regardless, this weekly Friday feature during the fantasy football season focuses on players on the hot seat for fantasy purposes, as in a strong performance might be necessary to shield them from the waiver wire in a myriad of leagues. A poor outing, and fantasy managers might move on. It is tougher to move on from a struggling running back than a quarterback, as supply greatly outshines demand in ESPN leagues for the passers. Some quarterback will pull a Geno Smith and become valuable. A struggling running back -- especially with a high ADP -- is tougher to move on from.
Quarterbacks on the fantasy hot seat
Aaron Rodgers, New York Jets: Call me naïve if you prefer, but I don't even look at his numbers from last season. Rodgers and Packers personnel (coaches/management) hardly seemed on the same page, in numerous aspects, and Rodgers looked almost bored and as if he wanted to be anywhere else. Now he is somewhere else. He even took a giant pay cut to make it happen. This was the league MVP two of the past three seasons, throwing 85 touchdown passes and nine interceptions. He did not forget how to thrive in his age-38 season, but he's also not facing the Arizona Cardinals on Monday. It's the Bills. Perception counts for a lot in fantasy, and much is on the line for this one.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos: Wilson doesn't have to deal with remotely the same media attention in Denver, but he was on that hot seat much of last season and did not start playing capably until the final weeks. As with Rodgers, who was a top-10 fantasy QB in each of his previous 12 full seasons, Wilson boasts a strong history of statistical goodness. He needs to toy with the Las Vegas defense Sunday.
Geno Smith, Seattle Seahawks: Yeah, so what if you were the No. 5 fantasy QB from the 2022 season, this is 2023, fella! That's what fantasy managers will say if Smith sputters on Sunday against the Los Angeles Rams. Smith is familiar with this defense. He won a pair of close games against the Rams last season, one with big individual numbers, one without. Most fantasy managers seem skeptical Smith plays like a fantasy starter again. I am more than optimistic, but I definitely want to see it.
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers: Drafted out of Utah State in 2020 to replace Rodgers, Love started one game in three seasons. There are so many possibilities to how he performs, starting Sunday against the Chicago Bears. Love gets mostly the same colleagues whom Rodgers played with last season, with the unproven receiving options, a strong running game and seemingly competent coaching. This should be fascinating, especially if Love plays great and Rodgers fails to do so.
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers: Rather than focus on one of the rookies or someone fantasy managers seem unlikely to rely on, such as Washington's Sam Howell or New England's Mac Jones, look at Purdy. He is likely a better option in real life than fantasy, playing for a team relying on its run game and defense. Purdy threw multiple touchdown passes and won each of his five regular-season starts, but he wasn't Patrick Mahomes, either. Sam Darnold, who isn't Mahomes either, lurks. Garoppolo and Trey Lance are gone. There is considerable pressure on Purdy, and in ESPN leagues, he is curiously rostered in more than rookies Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud, as well as Love and Garoppolo. It all seems just a bit odd.
Running backs
I don't think fantasy managers will run from the Jets' Breece Hall if Dalvin Cook sees more volume, but it would be nice to see Hall do something. If Cook struggles, that would be more telling. Denver is another spot to watch, as Javonte Williams, also on the mend from tearing knee ligaments, may or may not see many touches. Ezekiel Elliott is on the Patriots, but so is Rhamondre Stevenson. We will all be watching to see how Elliott is utilized. Does he get the goal-line looks? Jonathan Taylor is not playing for the Colts or any other team this month. Indianapolis figures to rely on some combination of Deon Jackson, Zack Moss and Evan Hull. I can't imagine fantasy managers are too interested yet, though. Miles Sanders is not an Eagle anymore, but he is a Panther and has much to prove.
Wide receivers
Calvin Ridley last played in an NFL game on Oct. 24, 2021. He is talented and a Jaguar now, but let's just say if teammate Christian Kirk scores only 5 PPR points, we overlook it. Much is expected from Ridley. Baker Mayfield replaces Tom Brady as the starter for the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Few are relying on Mayfield in fantasy, but Chris Godwin and Mike Evans are universally rostered and will be universally judged if they don't supply numbers. Will DJ Moore fix the Chicago passing game? Well, we will see on Sunday. Raise your hand if Michael Thomas burned your fantasy team since his historic 2019 season. You bet there will be eyes on him. Odell Beckham Jr. isn't quite the same as Thomas, but there are similarities. Beckham might not be in a myriad of fantasy lineups for Week 1, but whether he is still rostered when byes arrive is another matter.
Tight ends
Darren Waller comes off a pair of injury-riddled seasons and debuts for the New York Giants on Sunday night against the Dallas Cowboys. No pressure there! The Atlanta Falcons' Kyle Pitts was a high fantasy pick last season but was off many rosters by October. As with Waller, he is so talented, but he must stay on the field and produce. Bills rookie Dalton Kincaid is rostered in more than 67% of ESPN standard leagues, even though veteran Dawson Knox (12%) might still be the starter. This is rather odd. Perhaps fantasy managers flip these percentages soon, perhaps not.