Welcome to the Week 14 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
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New York Jets @ Buffalo Bills
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Stefon Diggs, Garrett Wilson
With Michael Carter out last week, Zonovan Knight (15 carries and five targets on 46 snaps), Ty Johnson (one carry and seven targets on 28 snaps) and James Robinson (four carries on eight snaps) handled the Jets' backfield duties. If Carter returns, he and Knight make for underwhelming flex options. If Carter remains sidelined, Knight can be viewed as an RB2 against a good Buffalo defense.
James Cook has been trending up for a while and he enjoyed a bit of a breakout last week with 105 yards on 20 touches. The rookie tied Devin Singletary in snaps (38), although Nyheim Hines (21) was just behind. This is a three-man backfield, so Singletary and Cook should be viewed as no more than flex options.
Gabe Davis has been held below 12.0 fantasy points in five of his past six games, including three straight contests. No defense has allowed fewer WR fantasy points over the past two months, so you should strongly consider benching Davis.
Over/Under: 42 (sixth highest in Week 14)
Win Probability: Bills 70% (fourth highest in Week 14)
Cleveland Browns @ Cincinnati Bengals
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Nick Chubb, Ja'Marr Chase, Amari Cooper, Tee Higgins, David Njoku
Deshaun Watson did not play particularly well in Week 13, as he was limited to 12-for-22 passing for 131 yards, zero touchdowns and one interception. Of course, Houston hasn't allowed much QB volume or production this season and Watson did add some fantasy value with his legs (seven carries for 21 yards). Watson should have to throw more this week against Cincinnati, but this is a Bengals defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest QB fantasy points and the fifth-fewest passing scores (11). Watson is a borderline QB1.
Over/Under: 49 (second highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 74% (third highest)
Houston Texans @ Dallas Cowboys
Lineup locks: Tony Pollard, Ezekiel Elliott, Dameon Pierce, CeeDee Lamb, Dalton Schultz
Dak Prescott has thrown at least two passing scores in five straight games, but neither his passing nor rushing volume has been great, resulting in only one weekly finish better than QB9 (QB4 in Week 8). The Texans have allowed the second-fewest QB fantasy points and touchdowns -- and none have cleared 21.1 fantasy points against them. Prescott is a fringe starter.
Nico Collins (foot) appears doubtful to play, but if he does, note that he was targeted 10 times in Week 13 and has seen at least seven targets in four straight games. He failed to reach 50 yards in any of those games, but does have two scores during the span. He'll be a flex option, if active.
Over/Under: 38.4 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 94% (Highest)
Minnesota Vikings @ Detroit Lions
Lineup locks: Dalvin Cook, D'Andre Swift, Justin Jefferson, Amon-Ra St. Brown, T.J. Hockenson
Kirk Cousins hasn't had any weekly finishes better than QB9 since Week 8 and he has shown a limited ceiling this season with a high of 23.5 points. Of course, he has an elite matchup this week against a Detroit defense that has allowed the most QB fantasy points. Eight quarterbacks have hit 18.0 fantasy points against them, one of which was Cousins (18.3) in Week 3. Cousins is a solid streamer.
Swift is back to lineup lock territory after soaking up 14 carries and six targets on 51% of Sunday's snaps. That promotion bumps Jamaal Williams down to flex territory. Williams has scored a touchdown in four straight games and has 14 scores this season, but his nonexistent passing-game role (zero targets in five straight) has kept him under 12.0 fantasy points in four of his last five outings.
Over/Under: 49.5 (Highest)
Win Probability: Lions 52% (11th highest)
Philadelphia Eagles @ New York Giants
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Saquon Barkley, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith
Darius Slayton has seen 24 targets over his past three games and he has also produced at least 86 yards in three of his past four (with 63 in the other). This is an extremely hard matchup as the Eagles have allowed the fewest fantasy points to the perimeter, which is where Slayton aligns 69% of the time. Consider Daniel Jones' top target to be no more than a flex.
Daniel Bellinger has enjoyed a target share of at least 16% in four of his past five full games and, while he has yet to clear 40 yards in any game, his increased role in a WR-starved Giants offense is enough to land him on the TE streaming radar this week.
Over/Under: 45.3 (fourth highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 69% (sixth highest)
Baltimore Ravens @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Lineup locks: Mark Andrews, Pat Freiermuth
Lamar Jackson is out, which positions Tyler Huntley as a streaming option in deeper leagues. Huntley threw for 187 yards and added 41 yards and one score on 10 carries against a good Denver defense Sunday. Huntley's rushing prowess positions him as a QB2, but note that he had just one weekly finish better than QB15 in his five games in place of Jackson in 2021.
Diontae Johnson was targeted 11 times last week, but failed to find the end zone and hasn't cleared 63 yards in a game since Week 3. Johnson is ranked ninth in WR targets and 18th in xTD, but sits 41st in yardage and has yet to score. The heavy target number is all that keeps him in the WR3 discussion.
Over/Under: 36.2 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Steelers 52% (12th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Tennessee Titans
Lineup locks: Derrick Henry, Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk
Trevor Lawrence has scored at least 16.0 fantasy points in four straight games and six of his past seven. He is, once again, a terrific streamer against a Titans defense that has ranks among the fifth-most generous defenses in terms of passing yards, passing scores and QB fantasy points allowed.
Zay Jones disappointed in a great spot against Detroit last week (16 yards), but he was targeted seven times and has seen 31 total targets over his past three outings. The massive volume keeps him in the WR3 mix against a Titans' pass defense that has allowed the second-most yards, the most touchdowns (17) and the most WR fantasy points. A hefty 22 wideouts have reached double-digit fantasy points against the Titans this season.
Over/Under: 40.9 (seventh highest)
Win Probability: Titans 50% (13th highest)
Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ San Francisco 49ers
Lineup locks: Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, George Kittle
Leonard Fournette returned to action and paced the Buccaneers' backfield in snaps (45), carries (10) and routes (29) in Week 13. Rookie Rachaad White started and soaked up nine carries, eight targets and 21 routes on 31 snaps. Fournette hasn't reached 15.0 fantasy points in any game since Week 6 and is stuck in a two-man committee. The 49ers have allowed the fewest RB fantasy points, as well as the lowest yards per carry (3.2) and lowest yards per target (3.9). They haven't surrendered more than 13.4 fantasy points to any back since Week 5. Fournette and White are no more than flex options.
Brandon Aiyuk figures to be tougher to trust as a WR3 with Brock Purdy in for an injured Jimmy Garoppolo. The second-year receiver's production has dipped a bit as of late (under 12.5 fantasy points in three of four games), so he's best-viewed as a flex against a Tampa Bay defense that has allowed only five wide receivers to reach 17.0 fantasy points this season.
Over/Under: 36.5 (12th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 63% (eighth highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Seattle Seahawks
Lineup locks: Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
Walker left in Week 13 with an ankle injury and backups Travis Homer, DeeJay Dallas and Tony Jones Jr. were all either out of action as well or also went down injured last week. This obviously is a messy situation, but if Walker plays, you're certainly starting him as an RB1. If he's out, expect a committee, with the lead back of the crew no more than a desperation flex. If only Homer and Jones are active, Homer would be the preferred flex.
DJ Moore has been held under seven targets in four straight games, but he did come up big with a 4-103-1 receiving line in Week 12. That was, perhaps not coincidentally, Sam Darnold's 2022 debut. Moore was a lineup lock with Darnold under center last week and he's in the WR3 mix this week, even against a Seattle defense that has allowed the seventh-fewest WR fantasy points.
Over/Under: 43.6 (fifth highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 69% (fifth highest)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Denver Broncos
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce
Isiah Pacheco is trending toward lineup lock status after producing 15-plus fantasy points in consecutive games. Pacheco has 14-plus carries and 66-plus yards in four straight and matched a season high with two targets last week. Denver has allowed only five RB touchdowns this season (fourth fewest), but Pacheco is still a viable RB2.
Mike Boone returned from IR and played on 12 snaps (six carries, one target) in Week 13. That's compared to 35 snaps (17 carries, four targets) for Latavius Murray. Boone's role figures to only grow and Murray has cleared 13.5 fantasy points in just one of eight games this season. He's a fringe RB2.
Jerry Jeudy returned from injury last week, but was limited to four targets as he played on only 19 of a possible 52 snaps. Jeudy had seen at least seven targets in four straight games prior to his latest injury and the most recent two of those outings resulted in 16-plus fantasy points. He's a good bet for more usage this week against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the fourth-most WR fantasy points. Consider him as a WR3 who we can bump to the WR2 mix if Courtland Sutton (hamstring) is out. Sutton was held under 25 receiving yards in his past three full games with Jeudy active.
Over/Under: 40.8 (eighth highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 75% (second highest)
Miami Dolphins @ Los Angeles Chargers
Lineup locks: Tua Tagovailoa, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Tyreek Hill, Keenan Allen, Jaylen Waddle, Mike Williams
Raheem Mostert surprisingly took control of the Miami backfield last week, handling seven carries on 27 snaps, compared to just one carry and two targets on 17 snaps for Jeff Wilson Jr. That was a very low-volume game (44 snaps), but the duo is set up with an elite matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed the fourth-most RB fantasy points and a league-high 5.6 YPC. Mostert gets the slight edge as the preferred RB2/flex.
Joshua Palmer hasn't seen fewer than seven targets in any game since Week 4 but, as usual, his value will depend on the health of Williams. If Williams returns, Palmer is no more than a deep-league flex. If Williams remains out, Palmer (20th in fantasy PPG since Week 5), is a good WR2/3.
Over/Under: 46.4 (third highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 58% (10th highest)
New England Patriots @ Arizona Cardinals
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Rhamondre Stevenson, James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins
Hopkins, Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore have yet to play a single offensive snap together this season, but that could change following Arizona's Week 13 bye. Especially with Zach Ertz on IR, Murray figures to funnel most targets to the standout trio. Hopkins (10.5 targets per game) and Brown (eight targets in his return from IR in Week 12) are the best WR2 plays of the group, whereas Moore (8.0 targets per game) is a WR3/flex.
Jakobi Meyers' struggles continue, as he has been held below seven targets and 10 fantasy points in four straight games. That includes a mere 22 yards on five targets against Buffalo last week. Meyers has plummeted to flex territory.
Over/Under: 37.5 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Patriots 61% (ninth highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Los Angeles Rams
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams
Cam Akers exploded for 60 yards and two scores on 18 touches in Week 13, outsnapping Kyren Williams 46-17 along the way. It's a step in the right direction. That said, Akers' usage has been all over the map in recent weeks, he's barely been targeted (just seven times all season), and Sunday marked his first game over 10.1 fantasy points in 2022. He's no more than a flex against a Raiders defense that has allowed 4.0 yards per carry (seventh lowest). Williams, on the other hand, belongs on benches following his four-touch showing.
Over/Under: 40.4 (ninth highest)
Win Probability: Raiders 66% (seventh highest)