Making tough lineup decisions, week over week, can be the most challenging part of the fantasy football process. When you're torn between two similar players, and simply don't know which to start, start the player with the superior matchup.
Ah, but exactly how does one determine the best (and worst) weekly matchups?
The "Matchups Map" each week provides a schedule-independent method to evaluate positional matchups, ranking all 32 opposing defenses in order of most to least favorable for opposing players at all four skill positions (quarterback, running back, wide receiver and tight end). Instead of relying upon seasonal totals, in this space we calibrate points-allowed data to show how each defense fared relative to the difficulty of the schedule that it has faced. This provides a fairer approach to judging the quality of individual matchups.
"Adj. FPA," or Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed, reflects how far above or below players' weekly PPR fantasy point averages that defense held opponents at that position. A positive number means that the matchup is favorable; a negative number means it is unfavorable. Additionally, remember that teams often use multiple running backs and wide receivers in a game, and these plus/minus averages cover all of a team's personnel at that position.
All data is from the past five weeks of NFL action.
Finally, a caveat: Matchups are only one ingredient in my rankings formula. Not every favorable matchup should be exploited, nor unfavorable matchup avoided. If you want my -- and ESPN fantasy staff's -- most complete source for whom to start and sit each week, consult our weekly rankings.
Quarterbacks
Matchups highlight: Kirk Cousins, Vikings (at Lions). Freed from a stretch of brutal matchups, Cousins should be primed for a run at his season-best 23.48 fantasy points of Week 8, which came in a matchup nearly as favorable as this one. Easily the worst overall defense in the league, the Lions have been especially poor against opposing quarterbacks, both for the season and recently. They have surrendered 2.5 more fantasy points per game to the position this season than any other defense, and have seen a league-leading seven individual quarterbacks score 24-plus fantasy points against them, including in each of Weeks 10 (Justin Fields, 39.38), 11 (Daniel Jones, 24.64) and 12 (Josh Allen, 29.92).
Cousins doesn't bring to the table the mobility that any of those three does, but bear in mind that the Lions' 0.46 points per passing attempt this year allowed also ranks fifth-most. Additionally, he scored 18.30 points against them in their Week 3 meeting.
Others to like:
Across the field, Jared Goff (Lions, versus Vikings) matches up similarly well in the Week 14 game with the highest over/under (53, at publishing time), a sign that Goff could also be a focal point against a Vikings defense that saw Mac Jones and Mike White total 40.74 fantasy points against them the past two weeks.
Trevor Lawrence (Jaguars, at Titans) didn't excel facing the aforementioned Lions matchup in Week 13, not to mention suffered a toe injury in that game that hampered him during the practice week, but he again matches up well against a Titans defense allowing 3.0 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added for the season.
Matchup to avoid: Tom Brady, Buccaneers (at 49ers). He hasn't been close to the fantasy superstar he was in seasons past in 2022, but Brady has at least picked up his statistical pace in recent weeks, averaging a No. 13 weekly finish over the past five weeks. Nevertheless, he has earned an ESPN standard league's start (meaning a top-10 weekly positional finish) only three times all season, with his two best single-week scores coming against the two bottom-eight defenses (for the season) against the position. The 49ers, by contrast, represent one of the worst matchups Brady will face all season, behind only the Cowboys in Week 1 (he scored 10.38 points in that game). Yes, the 49ers have a stiffer run than pass defense, but as Brady is the clear focal point of the Buccaneers offense, best illustrated by their league-leading 2.03:1 pass-to-run ratio, he's their player of greatest matchup concern.
Running backs
Matchups highlight: D'Onta Foreman, Panthers (at Seahawks). Chuba Hubbard's rising usage, which includes better-than-40% offensive snap shares in each of the Panthers' past two games as well as 17 touches in their most recent, has clouded what was a once-optimistic outlook for Foreman.
To offer a counterargument, Foreman has played in every game this season for the first time in his six-year NFL career, had an 83-touch workload from Weeks 7-10, his most in any four-game stretch in his career, and despite all of that was heavily used in each of those Week 12-13 contests (11 and 24 touches). Could the Panthers have merely been using Hubbard to keep Foreman's legs fresh ahead of their late-in-the-year bye?
Foreman should now be readier to absorb another 20-touch workload, and the odds of it are decent against a Seahawks defense that struggles mightily against the run. They have seen five different running backs score double-digit PPR fantasy points in their past three games, including unexpectedly big outputs from similarly labeled "committee backs" Ameer Abdullah (14.5, in Week 12) and Cam Akers (19.0, in Week 13).
Others to like:
Akers (Rams, versus Raiders) is coming off that aforementioned unexpectedly good game, and now faces a Raiders defense that has also seen five different running backs score double-digit PPR fantasy points in their past three games.
Samaje Perine (Bengals, versus Browns) will probably take a back seat to Joe Mixon, who should return for Week 14, but the fact that Mixon remained in the concussion protocol into the week might mean Perine still spells Mixon more than usual. Whatever the division of work, both running backs are worthy fantasy plays in a week where six teams are on bye, especially against a Browns defense that has allowed a league-most 0.79 fantasy points per rushing attempt to the position.
Matchup to avoid: James Conner, Cardinals (versus Patriots). He's in the midst of a hot streak during which time he has had that every-down look, best evidenced by his 90% offensive snap share and 22.7 touches-per-game average the past three weeks, totaling 50.0 PPR fantasy points in that time. Conner's usage might not be in question, especially with the glaring lack of depth behind him, but it must be stressed that the Patriots, for the season as a whole, have a league-low minus-5.6 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added against running backs.
Along with the 49ers, the Patriots have afforded only two individual running backs to score as many as 15 points against them all year (Khalil Herbert, 15.7 in Week 7; James Cook, 16.5 in Week 13), and neither was considered a major part of his respective offense, meaning neither might've been a priority in Bill Belichick's game plan as Conner could be.
Wide receivers
Matchups highlight: Zay Jones, Jaguars (at Titans). Any of the Jaguars' top three wide receivers, Marvin Jones Jr. and Christian Kirk being the others, could as easily be swapped in here, as could tight end Evan Engram (we'll get to him). The Titans, after all, have been the worst defense against the position, whether for the season or merely the past five weeks, including their 6.9 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added for the year, which is 2.4 more than any other defense has afforded.
Interestingly, the Titans have allowed 25.2 PPR fantasy points per game to wide receivers who weren't their teams' respective WR1s, which bodes well for the Jaguars' trio in what's a week thin on depth (six teams on bye). Kirk is the team's seasonal leader with a 24.3% target share, but he's more of a household fantasy name. Zay Jones, meanwhile, has a team-leading 28.4% target share in the Jaguars' past three games, and he's the one available in many more fantasy leagues (42.7%, to Kirk's 5.3%).
Others to like:
Treylon Burks (Titans, versus Jaguars) left Week 13 early due to a concussion, but if he's cleared in time to play, he matches up well against a Jaguars defense that has allowed six different wide receivers to score at least 15 PPR fantasy points in their past five games.
Even with Tyler Huntley as his quarterback, Demarcus Robinson (Ravens, at Steelers) is a worthwhile bye week plug-in, going up against a Steelers defense that has four different wide receivers to score 13.2-plus PPR fantasy points in the past three weeks combined.
Matchup to avoid: Gabe Davis, Bills (versus Jets). Who'd have expected that, 14 weeks into the season, that the Jets would be the league's toughest defense against wide receivers? That's what happens when cornerback Sauce Gardner performs not only as the best rookie at his position, but per Next Gen Stats its second-best overall, with minus-27.6 Targeted EPA (Expected Points Added), not to mention fellow cornerback D.J. Reed as well as safeties Lamarcus Joyner and Jordan Whitehead perform well above average.
The Jets have seen only seven different wide receivers crack double-digit PPR fantasy points against them in their past nine games, with only heavily targeted Jakobi Meyers scoring 20-plus (21.0, Week 8). Davis, incidentally, scored only 5.3 PPR fantasy points on five targets despite 38 routes run in these teams' Week 9 meeting.
Tight ends
Matchups highlight: Hunter Henry, Patriots (at Cardinals). No defense has had more difficulty containing opposing tight ends this season than the Cardinals, whose 7.6 Adjusted Fantasy Points Added for the season, 5.8 Adjusted FPA in the past five weeks and 19.2 PPR fantasy points per game allowed this year are all most in the league. This defense has been responsible for the season-best scores by George Kittle (24.4 PPR fantasy points in Week 11), Juwan Johnson (20.2, Week 7) and Tyler Higbee (15.3, Week 10), and weeks like this with six teams on bye often force us to the waiver wire for replacements.
Henry stands out as a potential plug-in, as his seven red-zone targets lead the Patriots, while the Cardinals have afforded tight ends a 77.8% catch rate (third-most in the league), 14 catches (most), 90 receiving yards (second-most) and seven touchdowns (tied for the most) in red-zone situations.
Others to like:
Dalton Schultz (Cowboys, versus Texans) has seen 30 targets in his past five games, and he'll be facing a Texans defense that has seen four different tight ends score 7.4-plus PPR fantasy points in the past five weeks.
Gerald Everett (Chargers, versus Dolphins) has borderline TE1 potential facing a matchup against the Dolphins, whose 15.3 PPR fantasy points per game and 2.02 points per target allowed to the position are both third-most in the league.
Matchup to avoid: David Njoku, Browns (at Bengals). The last time these teams squared off, in Week 8, Njoku was absent due to an ankle injury, and in his stead, Pharaoh Brown, Harrison Bryant and Miller Forristall were shut out in terms of PPR fantasy points and targets on 13 routes run.
Granted, none of the three is Njoku's equal in terms of talent, nor was the sample large enough to be a great comparison point, but let's not overlook that the Bengals just held the No. 1 tight end, Travis Kelce, to a season-low 7.6 points on six targets over 25 routes run in Week 13. This isn't to say Njoku should be strictly benched in all leagues this week, especially with six teams on bye, but his matchup caps his upside.