Welcome to the Week 13 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
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Pittsburgh Steelers @ Atlanta Falcons
Lineup lock: Pat Freiermuth
Marcus Mariota is currently QB10 in total fantasy points, but don't be misled as he has yet to serve his bye and hasn't had any weekly finish better than QB14 since Week 8. He remains a low-ceiling QB2.
There is uncertainty in the Steelers' backfield, as Najee Harris (abdomen) is dicey for this week, as is backup Jaylen Warren (hamstring), who was out in Week 12. If Harris plays, he's an RB2 play in a good matchup. If he's out and Warren returns, the rookie becomes a fine flex option. If both are out, Benny Snell Jr. (12 carries and one target on 27 snaps last week) and Anthony McFarland Jr. (six carries and two targets on 20 snaps) will handle most of the work. Snell would be the better flex option.
Cordarrelle Patterson saw five targets in Week 12 after totaling only six during his six games. It's a step in the right direction, but also hard to trust after a long stretch of minimal volume. Patterson remains stuck in a four-back committee in Atlanta, which will limit him to 10-14 touches most weeks. He's a flex.
Diontae Johnson sits 12th among wideouts in targets (89), but he's averaging 5.7 yards per target and is the only receiver in the league with 50-plus targets and zero touchdowns. Teammate George Pickens looks like the real deal, but the rookie hasn't cleared six targets in any game since Week 5. Atlanta has been a little better against receivers lately, so Johnson and Pickens should both be viewed as no more than WR3/flex options.
Drake London has reached 8.0 fantasy points in only one of his past nine games and shouldn't be close to lineups.
Over/Under: 42.9 (sixth highest in Week 13)
Win Probability: Falcons 51% (14th highest in Week 13)
Denver Broncos @ Baltimore Ravens
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews
Russell Wilson has only one weekly finish better than QB15 this season -- and that came way back in Week 4. He shouldn't be on rosters.
In Denver's first game after releasing Melvin Gordon III, Latavius Murray played on 82% of snaps and handled 13 carries and one target. He figures to remain the lead back, but Mike Boone could return from IR this week. This is a tough matchup against a Baltimore defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest rushing yards and seventh-fewest RB fantasy points. Murray is a fringe RB2 and more of a solid play if Boone isn't activated.
Gus Edwards returned from injury and produced 52 yards and a score on 16 carries last week. This, after he produced a 16-66-2 rushing line in Week 7 and a 11-65-0 line on 16 snaps in Week 8. Edwards' rushing production keeps him in the flex mix, but a nonexistent receiving role (two targets) severely limits his upside.
In the five games before an injury in Week 10, Jerry Jeudy averaged 7.6 targets and was over 50 yards in all five. Courtland Sutton has gotten back on track with Jeudy sidelined for the past three weeks, producing seven-plus targets, 66-plus yards and 12.5-plus fantasy points in each game. This is a good matchup as the Ravens have allowed the sixth-most WR fantasy points and the most catches to wideouts this season, keeping both Jeudy and Sutton in the WR3 mix. If Jeudy remains out, bump Sutton up to WR2 consideration.
Greg Dulcich is trending down, having seen five-or-fewer targets in four straight games. He has also produced under 30 yards in three consecutive contests. The rookie is a midrange TE2.
Over/Under: 35.5 (15th highest)
Win Probability: Ravens 68% (third highest)
Green Bay Packers @ Chicago Bears
Lineup locks: Justin Fields, Aaron Jones, David Montgomery
Is Aaron Rodgers back? Since Christian Watson's breakout game in Week 10, Rodgers had a pair of 19-point fantasy outings and followed that with 140 yards and two TD passes against the Eagles on Sunday before leaving with an injury. The Bears have been horrific against quarterbacks and have surrendered the most fantasy points over expected to the position this season. Rodgers is a fringe QB1 play.
AJ Dillon had 88 yards and a score against Philadelphia, but note that he was limited to a mere 11 touches on 21 snaps. The big game was Dillon's first double-digit effort since Week 1. He remains behind Jones and is no more than a dart-throw flex.
Watson has scored six times over his past three games and put up 110 yards on six targets against the Eagles' elite perimeter defense. Watson's targets are a slight concern (only six in two straight games), but he has a much better matchup against a struggling Chicago pass defense. Running-mate Allen Lazard has been held below 11.0 fantasy points in three straight games and his targets have been all over the map (10-plus in two of his past four, but under five in the other pair). Rodgers' top target duo are both in the WR2 discussion, with Watson being the better play right now.
Chase Claypool played on 66% of snaps in Week 12 (his highest share since joining the Bears) and that number figures to rise with Darnell Mooney on IR. Of course, Claypool has just 83 yards on 15 targets in four games with the team, so he's tough to trust in lineups just yet.
Cole Kmet has posted back-to-back duds, but Fields was out last week. Kmet had five touchdowns in the three games before this slump. He's a viable TE1, assuming Fields returns.
Over/Under: 49.4 (second highest)
Win Probability: Bears 59% (ninth highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Detroit Lions
Lineup locks: Travis Etienne Jr., Amon-Ra St. Brown, Christian Kirk
Trevor Lawrence's strong finish against Baltimore last week launched him to his fifth top-12 fantasy outing in his last six tries (four were top-six finishes). He's an excellent streamer against a Lions defense that has allowed the most QB fantasy points this season. Eight of the 11 quarterbacks the Lions have faced have reached 18 fantasy points.
Jamaal Williams (18 carries, 29 snaps on Thanksgiving) has scored a ridiculous 13 touchdowns over 11 games, which has kept him afloat in fantasy despite a nonexistent passing-game role (zero targets in four straight games). Williams' TD production makes him hard to bench, but he'll continue to rotate with D'Andre Swift (five carries, eight targets on 22 snaps last week) and Justin Jackson (four carries, two targets on 17 snaps). Since returning from injury in Week 8, Swift's best fantasy finish has been RB18. He hasn't cleared 10 touches in any game since Week 1 and is no more than a flex.
Zay Jones is a tricky one, as he has seen double-digit targets in four games, but also five or fewer in four outings. He's coming off an 11-145-0 showing against Baltimore and, while he has scored just one touchdown in his past 26 games, the heavy recent usage in a great matchup makes him a Jakobi Meyers-like WR3/flex.
Over/Under: 48.6 (fourth highest)
Win Probability: Jaguars 51% (15th highest)
Cleveland Browns @ Houston Texans
Lineup locks: Nick Chubb, Dameon Pierce, Amari Cooper, David Njoku
Deshaun Watson will make his Cleveland debut, which will mark his first action since 2020. Houston has allowed the third-fewest QB fantasy points (mostly due to minimal volume faced), so this isn't an easy matchup, but Watson is nonetheless a back-end QB1.
Is Nico Collins Houston's new No. 1 wide receiver? The second-year player has out-targeted Brandin Cooks in three straight games and holds a 26-18 edge during the stretch. Collins was held under 50 yards in all three games, but we can't completely ignore his 8.6 targets per game during the span. He's a deep-league flex and a slightly preferred option over Cooks (seven-or-fewer targets in eight straight games).
Donovan Peoples-Jones plummeted back to earth with 16 yards on four targets last week, but he had preceded that with 60-plus yards and 11-plus fantasy points in five straight outings. He remains a flex option.
Over/Under: 42.2 (eighth highest)
Win Probability: Browns 62% (fifth highest)
New York Jets @ Minnesota Vikings
Lineup locks: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson
Kirk Cousins' ninth-place finish in fantasy points last week was his best effort since Week 8 and his third-best outing this season. He has a limited ceiling and a tough matchup against a Jets defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest passing yards and eighth-fewest QB fantasy points (second fewest over the past eight weeks). He should be on benches.
The Jets made James Robinson a healthy scratch and rolled with a Michael Carter/Zonovan Knight backfield committee in Week 12. Carter eventually left because of injury and was replaced in the rotation by Ty Johnson. If Carter (ankle) plays, he'll be no more than a fringe RB2, especially considering he has just one weekly finish better than RB30 in his past six games. Knight should be on rosters after totaling 103 yards on 17 touches last week. If Carter plays, the rookie is no more than a flex. If Carter sits, Knight is a RB2.
Garrett Wilson's first game with Mike White went about as well as possible (5-95-2 on eight targets). He has had at least seven targets, 92 yards and 17 fantasy points in three of his past four games and is set to face a Vikings defense that has allowed the most WR fantasy points over expected, as well as the second-most WR yards and catches. Wilson is in the WR2 mix, whereas Corey Davis (22-of-29 routes in his return from injury last week) is a deep-league flex. Elijah Moore, by the way, broke out with 64 yards and a touchdown last week, but he still can't be trusted considering he saw only two targets on 21 snaps.
Adam Thielen put up a season-high 11 targets and 21.1 fantasy points last week, but we're downgrading him this week against a Jets defense that has allowed the third-fewest WR fantasy points and second-fewest WR yards.
Tyler Conklin has been held to three-or-fewer targets in three straight games. He isn't a great starting option, even in a good matchup.
Over/Under: 41 (ninth highest)
Win Probability: Jets 53% (13th highest)
Washington Commanders @ New York Giants
Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley, Terry McLaurin
Antonio Gibson is coming off a quiet game (54 yards on 12 touches), but he has produced 13-plus fantasy points in four of his past six games and is averaging 15.0 touches during the span. He's a fringe RB2. Brian Robinson Jr. is fresh off a career-best fantasy outing, having produced 125 yards and a score on 20 touches. Robinson is averaging 19.0 touches over his past four outings and, while his passing-game role remains a concern (zero targets in five of eight games), he did see a career-high three targets last week. Robinson is a flex who is on the ascent.
Darius Slayton has flirted with the top 20 in a few recent games, but he has been between 9-15 points in five of his past seven outings and is best-viewed as a deep-league flex.
One week after posting a season-high 65 yards, Logan Thomas delivered just 7 yards on three targets against Atlanta. New York has allowed the sixth-most TE fantasy points, but Thomas is no more than a midrange TE2.
Over/Under: 37.1 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Giants 62% (seventh highest)
Tennessee Titans @ Philadelphia Eagles
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Derrick Henry, A.J. Brown
Miles Sanders is usually a lineup lock, but this is a tough spot. Tennessee has allowed the third-fewest rushing yards, the second-fewest rushing scores (two) and a 3.8 YPC (fifth lowest) to running backs. The Titans have struggled against the position in the passing game, but Sanders does most of his damage on the ground (117 carries, 18 targets). Sanders is a back-end RB2 this week and it helps that he matched a season high with three targets last week.
DeVonta Smith has seen eight-plus targets in three straight games, as well as in five of his past seven outings. The fantasy production hasn't been great (under 14.0 fantasy points in five straight contests), but this is a great matchup. (The Titans have allowed the second-most WR fantasy points.) Smith is a fringe WR2.
Treylon Burks has produced receiving stat lines of 7-111-0 and 4-70-0 in his past two games and has found his way into the flex mix and ahead of Robert Woods in the rankings. This is a tough matchup for both, however, as the Eagles have allowed the fewest fantasy points to perimeter receivers.
Over/Under: 42.5 (seventh highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 72% (second highest)
Seattle Seahawks @ Los Angeles Rams
Lineup locks: Kenneth Walker III, DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett
Geno Smith has thrown exactly two TD passes in five straight games and has at least 22 rushing yards in four straight. This isn't an easy matchup, but Smith has been good enough to remain a back-end QB1.
Kyren Williams dominated the Rams' backfield with a career-high 71% snap share in Week 12. That resulted in 60 yards on 14 touches (both also career highs). Cam Akers, meanwhile, was limited to just eight touches on 16 snaps. Williams' usage has vaulted him into flex territory, especially against a horrific Seattle run defense that just allowed 303 yards to Josh Jacobs. Akers should remained benched.
Allen Robinson II has joined Cooper Kupp on IR, which positions Van Jefferson as the Rams' No. 1 wideout. Jefferson enjoyed a season-high seven targets last week and has scored in two of his past three outings. He's a WR3/flex.
Tyler Higbee was not targeted last week and shouldn't be in lineups as long as Matthew Stafford is out. That's the case even against a Seattle defense that has allowed the second-most TE fantasy points this season.
Over/Under: 40.6 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 62% (sixth highest)
Miami Dolphins @ San Francisco 49ers
Lineup locks: Tua Tagovailoa, Christian McCaffrey, Tyreek Hill, Deebo Samuel, Jaylen Waddle, George Kittle
Jimmy Garoppolo (predictably) fell back to earth last week and he has one weekly finish better than QB8 on the season. He's limited in terms of both rushing output and passing upside, which positions him as a QB2, even in a good matchup.
Jeff Wilson Jr.'s role didn't change much with Raheem Mostert out last week, but he still came through with 52 yards and a score on 14 touches. Wilson has scored in all three games with Miami, though he gets a downgrade to flex territory this week against his former team. The 49ers have allowed the fewest RB fantasy points and only two opposing backs have reached 14 points against them.
Brandon Aiyuk has reached double-digit fantasy points in six straight games, though he has been under 12.5 points in two of his past three. He's averaging 6.3 targets over his past four outings and is a good WR3.
Over/Under: 46.2 (fifth highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 60% (eighth highest)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Cincinnati Bengals
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Ja'Marr Chase, Tee Higgins, Travis Kelce
Isiah Pacheco posted career highs in touches (23) and fantasy points (15.6) last week. He has 15-plus carries in three straight games, but has just one target and one touchdown during the span. Pacheco's minimal receiving role generally limits him to flex territory, but he gets a boost this week with Jerick McKinnon looking doubtful. Speaking of McKinnon, he didn't carry the ball last week, but saw six targets and has at least that many in three of his past four games. Still, even if he plays, he'll be no more than a low-ceiling flex.
JuJu Smith-Schuster (concussion) returned last week, but he was limited to 39% of snaps and was targeted just three times. He figures to see more work this week, but there's obviously more risk than usual. He's a WR3.
Tyler Boyd hasn't reached 45 yards or 13.0 fantasy points since Week 7 and should be considered only for a WR3/flex spot if Chase is surprisingly out again.
Hayden Hurst saw a season-high nine targets last week which, along with a good matchup, is enough to make him a viable streamer this week.
Over/Under: 52.8 (Highest)
Win Probability: Bengals 55% (11th highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ Las Vegas Raiders
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Josh Jacobs, Austin Ekeler, Davante Adams, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams
Derek Carr has flirted with back-end QB1 production at times this season with five weeks as either QB9 or QB10 in fantasy points. However, he has only one weekly finish better than that and three finishes outside the top 20. Carr is a low-ceiling QB2.
Joshua Palmer has seen seven-plus targets in six consecutive games, but we'll need to lower our expectations for him if Allen, Williams and Gerald Everett are all on the field alongside him this week. Of course, if Williams remains out, Palmer leaps back into the WR2/3 mix.
Speaking of Everett, he disappointed with only 18 yards on four targets last week, but that was his first game back from injury. He has a good matchup against a Raiders defense that has allowed the seventh-most TE fantasy points. He's a back-end TE1.
Foster Moreau has not cleared 45 yards in any game this season, but he has scored in two of his past three contests and the Chargers have allowed the third-most TE yards this season. He's a streaming option.
Over/Under: 48.8 (third highest)
Win Probability: Raiders 58% (10th highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ Dallas Cowboys
Lineup locks: Jonathan Taylor, CeeDee Lamb, Michael Pittman Jr., Dalton Schultz
The Cowboys' offense is red hot and Dak Prescott has thrown at least two TD passes in four straight games. That has led to fringe QB1 production, as he has finished between QB9 and QB18 in fantasy points in four of his five games since returning from injury. Prescott is a fringe QB1.
Is Tony Pollard Dallas' new lead back? Snap counts suggest that he is, as he has been on the field more than Ezekiel Elliott in both games since the latter returned from injury. Pollard has at least 20 touches in three straight games and is a solid RB2 who is trending toward lineup-lock status. As for Elliott, he has been busy and productive "behind" Pollard, having delivered 16-47-2 and 17-95-1 touch lines in the two games since his return. Elliott is a flex.
Week 12 saw Parris Campbell post his first dud with Matt Ryan under center since Week 5, but he's a bounce-back candidate considering he reached 11 fantasy points in his prior four Ryan games. He's a flex.
Michael Gallup posted a season high in fantasy points last week, but the problem is that it was only 11.3 points. He's yet to clear seven targets in any game and is a weak flex against a Colts defense allowing the fewest WR fantasy points.
Over/Under: 38.8 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 86% (Highest)
New Orleans Saints @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, Chris Olave
Tom Brady has posted two top-12 fantasy outings this season, but they came way back in Weeks 4-5. He's a QB2.
After producing 105 yards on 22 touches with Leonard Fournette missing a chunk of the game in Week 10, Rachaad White followed that with 109 yards on 23 touches with Fournette out in Week 12. If Fournette returns, we should expect a split backfield, with the two backs both being safest as fringe RB2/flex plays. If Fournette is out, then White (who had nine catches last week), becomes a strong RB2 option.
Since soaring for 34.1 fantasy points in Week 5, Taysom Hill has totaled just 34.7 fantasy points over his past seven games. His role has increased in recent weeks, though, which makes him a more palatable TE2.
Over/Under: 38.6 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Buccaneers 54% (12th highest)
Buffalo Bills @ New England Patriots
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Rhamondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs
Stevenson is a lineup lock, but let's discuss him a bit more with Damien Harris out this week. When Harris was out in Week 6, Stevenson played on 85% of snaps, totaling 19 carries and five targets. In Week 9 with Harris sidelined, Stevenson managed 73% of snaps, soaking up 15 carries and seven targets. Stevenson is RB6 in fantasy points per game since Harris first went down in Week 5 -- and that's with Harris still having had 37 touches during the seven-game span.
Devin Singletary has had 80-plus yards and/or a touchdown in five of his past six games, but he's also produced single-digit fantasy points three times during this span. He's playing on the bulk of snaps (78% on Thanksgiving), but James Cook and Nyheim Hines will both get some run. Plus, this is a tough matchup as New England has allowed the second-fewest RB fantasy points and only two RB touchdowns. Singletary is a flex this week.
Jakobi Meyers has cooled in recent weeks and volume is the issue, as he's seen six-or-fewer targets in four of his last five full games. He's dealing with a shoulder injury and will be no more than a fringe WR3 if he's able to play.
Gabe Davis has been held under 12 fantasy points in four out of his past five games, but has a decent matchup against Jalen Mills this week (assuming Jonathan Jones shadows Diggs) and remains on the WR3/flex radar.
Dawson Knox has scored only two touchdowns and is coming off a 2-target, 17-yard effort against Detroit. He's best viewed as a TE2.
Over/Under: 39.4 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 63% (fourth highest)