Welcome to the Week 11 Fantasy Football Playbook!
This will be your guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
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Chicago Bears @ Atlanta Falcons
Lineup locks: Justin Fields, David Montgomery
Marcus Mariota doesn't have much of a ceiling (20-plus fantasy points only twice), but he has snuck in four top-10 outings and has a good matchup against a Bears defense that has allowed 24-plus QB fantasy points in two of its past three games. Mariota is a viable Week 11 streamer.
Montgomery's last top-20 fantasy point outing was in Week 5, but he's likely headed for a return to feature-back duties with Khalil Herbert on IR. He's back in the RB2 mix.
Cordarrelle Patterson has scored in four out of six games this season, but he's also been held to a grand total of 39 yards on nine targets during the span. He played on 22 snaps last week and remains in a timeshare with Tyler Allgeier (30 snaps), Avery Williams (9) and Caleb Huntley (9). Patterson is on the flex radar and has a good matchup against a Chicago defense that has allowed the fifth-most RB fantasy points and fourth-most RB touchdowns (14).
Darnell Mooney has produced a top-35 fantasy outing in four out of his past seven outings and Chicago's offensive improvements have him back in the WR3 mix, especially against an Atlanta defense that has allowed the most WR receptions, yards and fantasy points.
Drake London found the end zone last week, but that was his first score since Week 3 -- and he was held under 45 yards for the seventh straight game. He's no more than a flex, even in a great matchup.
Kyle Pitts is arguably a TE lineup lock simply due to the scarcity at the position. He's seen seven-plus targets in three straight games, though he's been kept under 30 yards in five out of his past six.
Cole Kmet has scored five touchdowns over his past three games after totaling only two during his first 40 career NFL games. The TD rate will cool, but Kmet has seen 13 targets over his past two games, so he's certainly trending toward the TE1 mix.
Over/under: 50.1 (second-highest in Week 11)
Win probability: Bears 57% (10th-highest in Week 11)
Cleveland Browns @ Buffalo Bills
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Nick Chubb, Stefon Diggs, Amari Cooper, David Njoku
Devin Singletary has remained the feature back in Buffalo, playing on 71% of snaps in Week 10, compared with just 18% for James Cook and 7% for Nyheim Hines. Singletary has been a top-25 fantasy running back in five out of his past seven games and has a terrific matchup against a Cleveland defense that has allowed the second-most RB fantasy points, the third-most yards and the most touchdowns (15). He's a solid RB2.
Kareem Hunt has been held below eight touches and 20 yards in three out of his past four games and remains no more than an underwhelming flex.
Gabe Davis is fresh off a boom week (6-93-1), which included a season-high nine targets. He'll continue to be inconsistent, but he's nonetheless a WR2 in this offense.
Donovan Peoples-Jones has produced at least 70 yards and 11.1 fantasy points in four straight games. He's had bad TD luck (none since Week 9 of 2021), but the yardage is enough to get him into the WR3 discussion.
Dawson Knox has been in the 9-13 fantasy point range in three of his past four games, but Cleveland has allowed only one tight end to reach double-digit fantasy points this season, so he remains a fringe TE1.
Over/under: 48.3 (third-highest)
Win probability: Bills 80% (third-highest)
Philadelphia Eagles @ Indianapolis Colts
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Jonathan Taylor, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, Michael Pittman Jr.
DeVonta Smith's boom/bust season continues, as he's reached 13.9 fantasy points in five games, but has been under 8.0 points in the other four. This is a very tough matchup (the Colts have allowed the fewest WR fantasy points), but Smith could be busy if Stephon Gilmore shadows Brown, so the second-year man makes for a fringe WR2.
Parris Campbell has finished ninth, fifth and 11th in fantasy points during Matt Ryan's past three starts. He's produced at least nine targets, seven catches, 57 yards, 1 touchdown and 18 fantasy points during all three outings. Campbell has found his way into the WR3 discussion and, while the Eagles have allowed the second-lowest YPT and catch rate to wideouts, Campbell has a decent matchup against Josiah Scott with Avonte Maddox sidelined.
With Dallas Goedert out, we're not trusting any of the other Philadelphia TE options just yet.
Over/under: 38.2 (ninth-highest)
Win probability: Eagles 80% (second-highest)
New York Jets @ New England Patriots
Lineup locks: Rhamondre Stevenson, Jakobi Meyers
When we last saw the Jets (Week 9), Michael Carter handled 12 carries (one target) on 31 snaps, compared with 13 carries (two targets) on 24 snaps for James Robinson. This is a very tough matchup as the Patriots have allowed the second-fewest RB fantasy points and only two RB touchdowns, so Carter is no more than a fringe RB2. Robinson is an uninspiring flex.
Damien Harris has fallen behind Stevenson on the depth chart and hasn't scored in three games. He's best left on benches.
Garrett Wilson's past two games have resulted in receiving lines of 6-115-0 and 8-92-0. He remains positioned for a big role with Corey Davis still sidelined and Elijah Moore playing a reduced role. Consider Wilson to be a WR2/3.
Tyler Conklin did it again. After teasing us with 79 yards and two scores on 10 targets in Week 8, he stumbled to a mere 7 yards on two targets in Week 9. Add Conklin to the long list of boom/bust fringe TE1s.
Over/under: 34.3 (14th-highest)
Win probability: Patriots 53% (13th-highest)
Los Angeles Rams @ New Orleans Saints
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave
Kyren Williams made his NFL offensive debut in Week 10, handling one carry and three targets on 16 snaps. That put him well behind Darrell Henderson Jr. (34 snaps) but ahead of Cam Akers (10). For now, Henderson is the top desperation flex of the three, but avoid this whole backfield if possible.
Cooper Kupp is now on IR. Here's a look at the Rams' WR route totals after he left last week's game: Ben Skowronek with 16 (8 in the slot), Allen Robinson II with 15 (8), Van Jefferson with 14 (3), Brandon Powell with two (1) and Lance McCutcheon with just one (0). It's clear that a "Big Three" has been established, with Robinson and Skowronek leading the charge to replace Kupp in the slot. This isn't a good offense, but Kupp's 31% target share will be spread among multiple players and essentially lifts all boats. Robinson has been a massive disappointment, but he's Matthew Stafford's likely No. 1 target and can be viewed as a WR3 against a Saints defense that has allowed the third-most WR catches and ninth-most fantasy points. Jefferson and Skowronek are risky flex plays for now.
Jarvis Landry handled six targets in Week 10's return from injury and is a low-ceiling flex.
Tyler Higbee also figures to see more work with Kupp out, but this is a brutal matchup against a Saints defense that has allowed the fewest TE fantasy points -- with none having reached double digits. Higbee is a fringe starter.
Over/under: 37.8 (10th-highest)
Win probability: Saints 66% (eighth-highest)
Detroit Lions @ New York Giants
Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Daniel Jones' lack of passing production has limited his upside (he has only two top-12 outings), but he adds value with his legs and has an elite matchup this week against a Lions defense that has allowed the most QB fantasy points and highest YPA. Jones is a streamer.
Detroit's Week 10 RB usage was as follows: Jamaal Williams (16 carries, zero targets, 24 snaps), D'Andre Swift (six carries, three targets, 18 snaps) and Justin Jackson (four carries, three targets, 16 snaps). Williams and Swift have combined for only one weekly finish better than RB18 since the team's Week 6 bye. Especially with Jackson now in the mix, consider Williams and Swift to be no better than RB2 options.
Darius Slayton is essentially the Giants' No. 1 WR and he's now reached 11 fantasy points in three straight games. He's a deep-league flex. DJ Chark could return this week, but he may be limited and should be on benches if he is active.
Over/under: 44.8 (sixth-highest)
Win probability: Giants 69% (sixth-highest)
Carolina Panthers @ Baltimore Ravens
Lineup locks: Lamar Jackson, Mark Andrews
D'Onta Foreman has produced 118-plus rushing yards and 16.5-plus fantasy points in three out of his past four games, though those were all in run-friendly game scripts. With Carolina behind big in Week 9, he was held to just 21 yards on nine touches. This is notable with Carolina being a road underdog in Baltimore this week. Consider Foreman to be a midrange RB2 against a Ravens defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest RB rushing yards.
Carolina has allowed the sixth-most RB yards and fantasy points, as well as 13 touchdowns, which helps Gus Edwards' case for a flex spot if he returns this week. If he's out, Kenyan Drake put up 109 yards and two scores on 26 touches in Week 9, so he could find his way to the RB2/flex mix.
DJ Moore had a couple of big games with PJ Walker, but he's been held under 30 yards in two straight contests (six targets in both) with Baker Mayfield back under center. Moore's 28% target and 44% air-yard shares in a projected passing-friendly game script are what keeps him in the WR2/3 mix.
Devin Duvernay has three top-25 fantasy outings this season, but Baltimore's top receiver is only on the flex radar with Rashod Bateman on IR.
Terrace Marshall Jr. (2) and Laviska Shenault Jr. (1) have combined for three top-30 fantasy outings over the past three weeks. Marshall is the preferred deep-league flex for now.
Over/under: 45.9 (fourth-highest)
Win probability: Ravens 71% (fifth-highest)
Washington Commanders @ Houston Texans
Lineup locks: Dameon Pierce, Terry McLaurin
Taylor Heinicke has had just one weekly finish better than 14th (eighth in Week 8) and is not an ideal streamer in what figures to be a run-heavy game for Washington.
With J.D. McKissic out for the second week in a row, Brian Robinson Jr. (26 carries, zero targets, 42 snaps) and Antonio Gibson (14 carries, three targets, 39 snaps) handled the backfield work against the Eagles. Gibson has cleared 14 fantasy points in three of his past four games and his passing-game usage makes him the preferred RB2 this week. This is a great matchup for both backs, though, as Houston has allowed the most RB yards and fantasy points, as well as the second-most touchdowns (14). An astounding four different backs have hit 30 points against the Texans this season.
Brandin Cooks returned from his one-game hiatus last week but failed to deliver a top-35 outing for the fourth straight game. He's fallen to flex territory.
Curtis Samuel sits fifth in WR touches and had between 79-81 yards in three straight games prior to a dud against the Eagles on Monday. He remains a flex.
We're not biting on Nico Collins yet, as his 5-49-1 showing in Week 10 included his first touchdown and his first game over 11.1 fantasy points this season.
Over/under: 35.8 (13th-highest)
Win probability: Commanders 58% (ninth-highest)
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Davante Adams, Courtland Sutton
The Raiders have allowed at least 16.7 QB fantasy points in every game this season. That includes Russell Wilson, whose 27.5-point effort in Week 4 marks his only finish better than QB14 this season. Wilson is a streaming option.
Chase Edmonds made his Denver debut in Week 10, but was limited to just two carries and two targets on 14 snaps. That put him well behind both Melvin Gordon III (39 snaps) and Latavius Murray (23). Gordon, who dominated the passing routes (26, compared with a combined 16 for the other two), has now posted consecutive top-25 weeks and is the top flex play of the group. Murray also has some flex appeal considering the Raiders have allowed the fourth-most RB fantasy points.
Greg Dulcich crashed back to earth with only 11 yards on one target last week. Still, he had double-digit fantasy points in three straight games to open his career. He's a fringe TE1 against a Raiders defense that has allowed the fifth-most TE fantasy points, along with six scores.
Foster Moreau found the end zone last week for the first time since Week 11 of last season, although his 43-yard effort barely got him to his first double-digit fantasy point outing of the season. He should be no more than a TE2 for as long as Darren Waller (IR) is out.
Over/under: 37 (11th-highest)
Win probability: Broncos 53% (12th-highest)
Cincinnati Bengals @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Lineup locks: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins, Tyler Boyd, Pat Freiermuth
Week 10 saw Najee Harris handle 20 carries and one target on 47 snaps, compared with nine carries and three targets on 34 snaps for Jaylen Warren (the two tied with 13 routes each). Harris has been in the 9.9-12.9 point range in four straight games and remains a low-ceiling, back-end RB2. The Bengals are tough on running backs -- and we saw that in Week 1 when Harris was held to just 26 yards on 12 touches (although he did find the end zone once).
Diontae Johnson's 63 yards in Week 10 were his most in any game since he had 84 yards in Week 3. However, his five targets were the fewest he has seen since Week 4. Johnson has yet to score this season and has been held at or below 11 fantasy points in six straight games. He's a WR3. George Pickens put up 55 yards and one score on five touches last week, which was his first game post-Chase Claypool. Pickens is on the WR3 radar.
Hayden Hurst has yet to clear 53 yards in any game this season and his two touchdowns came in Weeks 4-5. He's a fringe TE1.
Over/under: 40.4 (eighth-highest)
Win probability: Bengals 80% (highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ Minnesota Vikings
Lineup locks: Dalvin Cook, Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, T.J. Hockenson
Kirk Cousins has shown a nice fantasy floor this season, with 15-plus points in seven out of nine games. He has been a top-12 QB scorer in four of the past five weeks and is a back-end QB1 against Dallas.
Dak Prescott tossed a season-high three TD passes against the Packers last week and is a QB1 option this week against a Vikings defense that has allowed the third-most passing yards and 10th-most QB fantasy points.
Ezekiel Elliott is averaging 16.4 touches per game and has three scores over his past two outings. Minnesota has allowed just the seventh-fewest RB fantasy points and the third-lowest YPC allowed (3.7), but Elliott will be in the RB2 mix if he's back from injury. Tony Pollard will remain a flex option if Elliott is back this week. If Elliott sits, Pollard leaps right back to the RB1 mix.
Make it eight consecutive games with at least seven targets for Adam Thielen. He has been held without a top-15 fantasy outing this season, but the volume keeps him in the WR3 mix.
Michael Gallup is averaging 5.0 targets and 6.5 fantasy points per game. He's tough to trust, but Minnesota is missing Cameron Dantzler Sr. and was already allowing the third-most WR fantasy points this season.
Dalton Schultz has been a top-12 fantasy tight end in all four of Prescott's starts and he's coming off his best game of the season (6-54-1 on eight targets). He's nearing a return to lineup-lock status.
Over/under: 45.6 (fifth-highest)
Win probability: Cowboys 55% (11th-highest)
Kansas City Chiefs @ Los Angeles Chargers
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Austin Ekeler, Mike Williams, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Keenan Allen, Travis Kelce
Herbert has been a bit of a boom/bust option, but he gets another week as a lineup lock against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the fourth-most QB fantasy points and a league-high 19 touchdowns. Herbert threw for 334 yards and three scores in their Week 2 meeting.
The Chiefs committee at running back continues to cause headaches, with Isiah Pacheco pacing the unit in snaps (35) and carries (16), but failing to see a target in Week 10. Jerick McKinnon handled one carry and eight targets on 23 snaps and Clyde Edwards-Helaire was held to two targets on a sad four snaps. It's hard to trust anyone from this crew, but this is an elite matchup against a Chargers defense that has allowed the third-most RB fantasy points and highest YPC (5.7).
The Chargers' WR hierarchy is also tough to sort out as we get a feel regarding the potential return of Williams and Allen, both of whom belong in lineups if active. If both return, Joshua Palmer is in the flex mix. If just one returns, Palmer is a WR3. If neither return, Palmer is a WR2. He's been targeted at least eight times in three straight games, reaching 14 fantasy points twice.
Smith-Schuster (concussion) and Marquez Valdes-Scantling (illness) are both a bit dicey and Mecole Hardman (abdomen, IR) is out this week, so we'll need to monitor this situation and consider Kadarius Toney and Justin Watson as potential WR3/flex options if either is called on to start.
Gerald Everett has been held under 12 fantasy points in five straight games, but he does have seven-plus targets in three of his past four outings. He'll be a more secure TE1 if Allen and/or Williams remain out.
Over/under: 51.2 (highest)
Win probability: Chiefs 74% (fourth-highest)
San Francisco 49ers @ Arizona Cardinals
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray (if active), Christian McCaffrey, James Conner, DeAndre Hopkins, Deebo Samuel, George Kittle
Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't have any weekly finishes better than QB8 this season, but he has been in that QB8-14 range in five out of eight games and has a good matchup this week. Arizona has allowed the sixth-most QB fantasy points and touchdowns. Garoppolo is a viable streamer.
Conner re-established himself as Arizona's feature back last week, totaling 86 yards and two scores on 24 touches while playing on 95% of snaps. Especially after Eno Benjamin's release, Conner is back in the RB2 mix -- even against a 49ers defense that has allowed the fewest RB fantasy points, the lowest YPC (3.3) and the second-lowest YPT (4.1).
Elijah Mitchell returned from IR and handled 18 carries and two targets (36% of snaps) in Week 10. Game script was a big factor, as McCaffrey handled 11 of the first 16 carries when San Francisco was tied/trailing and Mitchell got 13 of the final 16 when San Francisco was mostly ahead. Mitchell's role is more likely to limit CMC's fantasy ceiling than lead to stand-alone flex value.
Marquise Brown could return from injury this week. He averaged 10.8 targets per game during Weeks 1-6, but that was prior to the return of Hopkins. There's still room for Brown to remain a WR2, especially with Zach Ertz now out for the season, but his target share figures to dip a bit from earlier this season. Rondale Moore has 31 targets during his past three games and is averaging 18.9 fantasy points during the span. Moore found his way to the WR2 discussion, but he'll see less volume and would be more of a WR3/flex if Brown returns.
Brandon Aiyuk has been at 81 to 84 yards in four straight games, with six-plus touches in each outing and a total of three touchdowns during the span. He's a WR2.
Over/under: 41.6 (seventh-highest)
Win probability: 49ers 68% (seventh-highest)
Tennessee Titans @ Green Bay Packers
Lineup locks: Derrick Henry, Aaron Jones, Allen Lazard
Aaron Rodgers put up a season-high 19.4 fantasy points last week, but the ninth-place finish was his first better than 12th this season. The Titans have allowed the most completions and passing yards, as well as the fifth-most QB fantasy points, but Rodgers remains a weak streamer.
Tennessee's pass/rush splits against running backs are pretty incredible, as they've allowed the second-fewest rushing yards and just one rushing score, but also the second-most receiving yards and third-most TD catches (3). Only one back has cleared 15.5 fantasy points against them (Saquon Barkley in Week 1), so AJ Dillon (nine straight games with single-digit fantasy points and no touchdowns) is not a recommended flex.
Second-round rookie Christian Watson was finally healthy in Week 10 and broke out with a 4-107-3 receiving line on eight targets. His 85% snap share helps lock him into the WR3/flex discussion this week against a Titans defense that has allowed the fourth-most WR fantasy points.
Robert Tonyan has just one touchdown this season (Week 4) and has cleared 40 yards in a game only once. He's a midrange TE2.
Over/under: 36.7 (12th-highest)
Win probability: Packers 51% (14th-highest)