Welcome back to the Next Gen Advantage, where each week we dive deep into the advanced statistics created through NFL Next Gen Stats player-tracking data to find little edges for fantasy managers. This week, we're heading back to the Receiver Tracking Metrics and looking at some run-stop matchups in Week 11. Let's dive in.
Receiver Tracking Metrics
I've been using our Receiver Tracking Metrics to identify buys and sells throughout the year in this space. Typically, I've been eyeballing individual players' RTM Scores -- focusing often on their Open Scores early in the year -- and comparing to production. But let's see what everyone's RTMs look like relative to their traditional outputs right now.
This chart below shows the RTM Overall Score -- a summary statistic that is the combination of Open Score, Catch Score and YAC Score -- on the x-axis and yards per route run on the y-axis. We can see there is a linear correlation between them, as we would expect. But not everyone is along the blue line -- and those are our targets, either to acquire or trade away.
Buy: Diontae Johnson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
Perhaps no major player stands out more as a clear buy based on this chart than Johnson, whose production trails far behind his Overall Score of 72, tied for 11th best among all receivers (tight ends included). Johnson's score is driven by his exceptional Open Score (89), which trails only A.J. Brown.
I am somewhat concerned there are systemic factors in Pittsburgh preventing production. If the RTMs are isolating from QB play as they are supposed to, one would expect a receiver playing with Kenny Pickett to underperform our expectations based on the RTMs. So it's logical that Johnson, George Pickens and Chase Claypool are all below the regression line.
That being said, I'm still buying. Receivers can still produce with bad quarterbacks. Johnson just gets open far too much to not see increased production. I traded DJ Moore for Johnson recently in one league and I'd make that deal again.
Sell: Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, Detroit Lions
I've put St. Brown (51) as a sell before in this space, and I'm holding strong on that take. It's the Catch Score (41) mostly holding back his RTMs, though none of his three attributes are over 60. Jared Goff is averaging 6.8 yards per dropback, seventh highest in the NFL, so if anything, we might expect St. Brown to slightly overperform his RTMs. But not by this much, I don't think. I'm fading him down the stretch.
Sell: Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
Whaaaat?
OK, hang on, let's reframe this one.
I think Hill is the WR1 going forward, and I don't think this chart is showing you anything that would suggest he isn't. The question is: How much more is Hill worth than Justin Jefferson and Stefon Diggs? And that's where I'd venture that the RTMs are indicating that Hill, Jefferson and Diggs are all on basically the same level. So if someone were to offer me Diggs and something useful for Hill, I'd probably be willing to make that trade.
Buy: Tyler Boyd, WR, Cincinnati Bengals
Boyd, too, has been on our buy list before but is worth mentioning again. He ranks seventh in Overall Score -- seventh! -- tied with Ja'Marr Chase and Brandon Aiyuk.
His future from a volume standpoint is a little more murky depending on Chase's return, but regardless, I would expect Boyd to overperform expectations going forward based on these metrics. He gets open and make catches. With Joe Burrow throwing to him, Boyd should be producing much more.
Run-blocking matchups
Let's take a look at Week 11 matchups in the trenches. We'll be using run stop win rate to see which running backs will face the softest -- and stingiest -- run defense units.
Upgrade: Austin Ekeler vs. Kansas City Chiefs
Movable force vs. a stoppable object alert!
Ekeler has been running behind the worst run block win rate unit in the NFL this season in Los Angeles, but this week the Chargers are facing the Chiefs, who have the worst run stop win rate this season. While that could mean the Chargers aren't able to take advantage of the Chiefs' run defense, the way I see it, Ekeler has been running with the Chargers' run blocking all year long and only this week gets to face the porous Chiefs run unit. He could be in for another monster game.
Upgrade: Michael Carter at New England Patriots
This is an interesting split because the Patriots have allowed just 4.1 yards per carry to opposing running backs this season, ninth best in the NFL. But they also have the second-worst run stop win rate. The win rates are (at least designed to be) more process-based, so if I'm trying to predict the Patriots' run stopping going forward, I'd lean heavily on them. As a result, this looks like a good matchup for Carter.
Downgrade: Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon vs. Tennessee Titans
No team in the NFL has a better run stop win rate than the Titans. Which makes sense, because if you look at that team's offense, it's hard to figure out how exactly they are 6-3.
The defense, that's how.
This downgrade does come with a grain of salt due to injuries to the Titans' defense, because if Jeffery Simmons were out again, that would be a serious loss; he ranks fourth in run stop win rate along the interior. Even if not, Teair Tart isn't too far behind in the same category, as he ranks 10th.
Seth Walder is in his sixth NFL season as a sports analytics writer at ESPN and previously covered the Jets and Giants for the New York Daily News.
NFL player tracking, also known as Next Gen Stats, is the capture of real-time location data, speed and acceleration for every player and every play, on every inch of the field. Sensors throughout the stadium track tags placed on players' shoulder pads, charting individual movements within inches.