Welcome to the Week 10 Fantasy Football Playbook.
This will be your guide to the week's slate of NFL games, featuring score projections, over/unders, win probabilities and, of course, easily digestible fantasy advice for season-long and DFS leagues. This guide should help you with all sorts of decision-making, including sit/start decisions, last-minute waiver adds and lineup choices.
The advice is centered on 12-team PPR leagues with relatively standard scoring and lineup settings (1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 Flex, 1 K, 1 D/ST), although I'll often mention "shallow" or "deep" leagues for some starters. The charts show all players who have been projected for at least 6.0 fantasy points this week, as well as all D/STs. "Matchup" is automatically determined using a proprietary metric that factors in raw and volume-adjusted fantasy points allowed to each position by the opposing defense this season.
(Editor's note: Projections and rankings will align almost perfectly, but sometimes when a projection is close, a player might be ranked slightly higher or lower because of other factors, including upside or risk. This column is subject to possible updates during the weekend, although at the very minimum, rankings will be updated on the site and projections will always be updated inside the game leading up to kickoff.)
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Seattle Seahawks @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Lineup locks: Geno Smith, Kenneth Walker III, Leonard Fournette, DK Metcalf, Mike Evans, Tyler Lockett, Chris Godwin
Tom Brady hasn't produced any top-12 fantasy outings since Week 5 and has only two of them on the season. Tampa Bay's heavy passing volume keeps Brady in the top-12 discussion, but Seattle has allowed only one quarterback to clear 19 fantasy points in a game this season (Jared Goff in Week 4).
Noah Fant came through with a season-high 96 yards in a great Week 9 matchup. He'll be facing another TE-friendly defense this week. Seattle has allowed the second-most TE receiving yards and fantasy points, as well as a league-high 9.7 yards per target. You could do worse if you need a streamer, although please note that Fant has seen more than five targets in only two games this season.
Over/Under: 40.9 (8th highest)
Win Probability: Seahawks 64% (10th highest)
Minnesota Vikings @ Buffalo Bills
Lineup locks: Josh Allen, Dalvin Cook, Stefon Diggs, Justin Jefferson, T.J. Hockenson
Kirk Cousins has danced his way to four straight top-12 fantasy weeks, but he has a brutal Week 10 matchup against a Buffalo defense that has allowed the third-fewest QB fantasy points. Patrick Mahomes (Week 6) is the only quarterback to have reach 16 fantasy points against them this season.
Devin Singletary has been limited to two top-20 fantasy outings this season, and the Buffalo backfield is trending toward a committee, with James Cook (four carries, four targets, 14 snaps) being plenty involved last week and Nyheim Hines becoming a candidate for more work as he learns the playbook. Singletary is a fringe RB2 against a Vikings defense that has allowed the sixth-fewest RB fantasy points and 3.8 yards per carry (third lowest).
The boom/bust season for Gabe Davis continues, as he has fallen short of seven fantasy points four time -- but he has reached 16 points in his other three outings. This is a great matchup as Minnesota has allowed the sixth-most WR fantasy points, third-most yards and highest YPT. That said, Davis has yet to clear seven targets in any game and is no more than a WR3. He'll be even riskier if Allen is sidelined and Case Keenum is under center.
Adam Thielen has seen seven-plus targets in seven consecutive games and has five top-30 fantasy showings during the span. He's a weekly WR3.
Dawson Knox hasn't cleared six targets or 41 yards in any game this season. He shouldn't be in lineups.
Over/Under: 46.6 (4th highest)
Win Probability: Bills 72% (4th highest)
Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears
Lineup locks: Justin Fields, D'Andre Swift, David Montgomery, Amon-Ra St. Brown
Jared Goff has two weekly finishes better than 12th this season, but the most recent was way back in Week 4. Chicago hasn't been great against quarterbacks, but a lot of the damage was done on the ground, and they don't face much volume (second-fewest passing attempts against). Goff is a QB2.
Jamaal Williams racked up 81 yards on a season-high 24 carries in Week 9. That said, Williams has managed only 57 receiving yards this season and his workload figures to continue to decrease as Swift's health and usage improve. Still, he'll be tough to bench until that actually happens. Consider him as an RB2 against a Chicago defense that has allowed 18-plus RB fantasy points to six different backs this season.
Khalil Herbert has been outsnapped by Montgomery in consecutive games and was held to just 23 yards on seven touches last week. Herbert has played well, but he's no more than a flex option, even against a Lions defense that has allowed the second-most RB touchdowns (11) and 5.0 yards per carry (fifth highest).
In Week 9, Darnell Mooney found the end zone for the first time in 2022 and saw a season-high eight targets. Meanwhile, new teammate Chase Claypool was limited to 25 snaps, but saw six targets and one carry. Both receivers are flex options against a Detroit defense that has allowed the fourth-most WR fantasy points and the second-highest (9.4) yards per target.
Kalif Raymond is a deep-league flex option if Josh Reynolds remains out.
Over/Under: 50.5 (3rd highest)
Win Probability: Bears 66% (7th highest)
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Kansas City Chiefs
Lineup locks: Patrick Mahomes, Travis Etienne Jr., Christian Kirk, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Travis Kelce
Trevor Lawrence has been a top-12 fantasy quarterback in five of his nine outings this season. He is once again on the streaming radar in a good matchup where he'll be throwing often against a Chiefs defense that has allowed a league-high 17 passing scores.
Jerick McKinnon "dominated" the Chiefs' backfield snap total in Week 9 with a season-high 63%, but he produced only 44 yards on nine touches and has yet to clear 10.4 fantasy points in any game this season. He's the safest play out of a trio that also includes Clyde Edwards-Helaire (under 40 yards and 10.0 fantasy points in four straight games) and Isiah Pacheco (who hasn't scored or cleared 7.0 fantasy points since Week 1). This will remain a game-script dependent timeshare and is best to be avoided.
Mecole Hardman only sees the field about 50% of the time, but he has five scores over his last three games and has now had six touches in two straight outings, along with 60-plus yards in three of his last four games. He's found his way into the WR3/flex mix.
It's tough to ignore Zay Jones' 21% target share (7.0 per game), but he hasn't reached 11.0 fantasy points in a game since Week 3 and is no more than a low-ceiling flex. Marvin Jones Jr. is in a similar boat, having failed to reach double-digit fantasy points in six out of eight games, although he has had seven-plus targets in three of his last four contests.
Evan Engram went from four straight games with six-plus targets and 9.0-plus fantasy points to an 8-yard showing on a sad two targets in Week 9. Engram remains a fringe TE1, though, since this is a nice matchup against a Chiefs defense that has allowed the seventh-most TE fantasy points, along with five scores.
Over/Under: 53.9 (Highest)
Win Probability: Chiefs 71% (5th highest)
Cleveland Browns @ Miami Dolphins
Lineup locks: Tua Tagovailoa, Nick Chubb, Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Amari Cooper, David Njoku
Jeff Wilson Jr. made his Miami debut last week and immediately paced the backfield in snaps (27) and targets (3), while tying Raheem Mostert in carries (9). Mostert was still plenty involved (two targets, 24 snaps), but Wilson seems to hold a slight edge. The timeshare figures to reduce both backs to flex status, but Week 10 presents a great matchup against a Browns defense that has allowed the fifth-most RB fantasy points and the second-most (12) touchdowns.
Kareem Hunt matched a season high with 15 touches when we last saw him, but he has cleared 11.2 fantasy points just once in his last seven outings. He remains a flex.
Donovan Peoples-Jones has managed 70-plus yards in four of his last five games but hasn't scored since Week 9 of last season.
Harrison Bryant wasn't targeted on his 50 snaps with Njoku out last week. He can't be trusted in lineups, even if he ends up being called upon to start again.
Over/Under: 51.9 (2nd highest)
Win Probability: Dolphins 57% (13th highest)
Houston Texans @ New York Giants
Lineup locks: Saquon Barkley, Dameon Pierce
Daniel Jones only has two top-15 outings this season, but he has hung around the streaming radar thanks to his high-end rushing production. He ranks in the top five in QB carries, rushing yards and rushing scores. The Texans haven't allowed much passing volume or production (including just seven passing touchdowns, which is second fewest), but they've been atrocious in slowing the run, which could present some opportunity for Jones. Consider him to be a low-ceiling, fringe QB1.
Brandin Cooks is expected back this week following a one-game hiatus. Of course, he's cleared 11.3 fantasy points in only one of his last six games and hasn't seen more than seven targets in any game since Week 2. Cooks has fallen to WR3/flex territory, especially this week against a Giants defense -- Adoree' Jackson shadow coverage is possible -- that has allowed the fifth-fewest fantasy WR points.
No other receivers from this game are safe plays and that includes Wan'Dale Robinson, who has some potential but also produced just 15 yards on two targets when he was last on the field.
Over/Under: 38.8 (11th highest)
Win Probability: Giants 78% (2nd highest)
New Orleans Saints @ Pittsburgh Steelers
Lineup locks: Alvin Kamara, Chris Olave, Diontae Johnson, Pat Freiermuth
Najee Harris has yet to produce any top-10 fantasy weeks, and reports suggest that rookie Jaylen Warren's role may grow moving forward. Even so, it's hard to imagine the 2021 first-round pick not leading this backfield, and he has handled at least 14 touches in seven consecutive games. Harris can be viewed as a fringe RB2 for another week.
George Pickens was held without a catch when we last saw him in Week 8, but that was with Claypool still on the roster. Pickens looks to be "the real deal" and is now locked into a featured role. He's a flex option against a Saints defense that will be missing Marshon Lattimore again this week.
He'll be a risky start, but Jarvis Landry is at least worth a bench spot. The slot man showed he still has some value with a 114-yard effort in Week 1, but he followed that up with a few duds before missing five games because of an ankle injury. He could return this week against a Pittsburgh defense that has allowed the most WR fantasy points, yards and touchdowns.
Over/Under: 40.1 (9th highest)
Win Probability: Saints 69% (6th highest)
Denver Broncos @ Tennessee Titans
Lineup locks: Derrick Henry
The Titans are no better than seventh in passing yards, passing scores and QB fantasy points this season, but the good matchup isn't enough to consider Russell Wilson as a streamer. Wilson has just one weekly fantasy finish better than 14th and only six passing touchdowns in seven games.
Denver has been utilizing a backfield committee led by Melvin Gordon III and Latavius Murray, but Chase Edmonds was added to the fold at the trade deadline. Especially in a tough matchup against a Titans defense that has allowed the fewest RB fantasy points over expected, this is a backfield best avoided. Gordon would be the top flex if you have to pick one.
Jerry Jeudy has emerged as Denver's top fantasy wideout in recent weeks thanks to his having seen seven-plus targets in four straight games. Jeudy has four top-20 fantasy outings, including his last two starts. Courtland Sutton, meanwhile, has been held below 6.0 fantasy points in three straight games, with a total of 50 yards on 16 targets during the span. Both of Denver's receivers are WR3 options against a Titans defense that has allowed the third-most WR fantasy points, including 10 touchdowns.
Robert Woods has reached double-digit fantasy points only twice this season, and he went without a catch on two targets in Week 9. He's nowhere close to being fantasy-relevant against an elite Broncos pass defense this week.
Greg Dulcich's worst fantasy outing was an 11th-place outing in his NFL debut in Week 6. He's now scored or reached 50 yards in all three of his games and is a fringe TE1.
Over/Under: 31.3 (14th highest)
Win Probability: Broncos 54% (14th highest)
Indianapolis Colts @ Las Vegas Raiders
Lineup locks: Josh Jacobs, Jonathan Taylor, Davante Adams, Michael Pittman Jr.
Derek Carr's best-case scenario this season has been fringe QB1 production. He shouldn't be a streaming option unless it's a great matchup. That's not the case against the Colts this week.
Parris Campbell has only 87 yards on six touches over the two Sam Ehlinger starts and is no more than a flex right now. Over the same stretch, Alec Pierce has produced just 88 yards on seven targets. He belongs on benches.
Mack Hollins is averaging 5.5 targets per game, but that number should be on the rise with both Darren Waller and Hunter Renfrow on IR. He's a risky flex this week, though, against a Colts defense that has allowed the second-fewest WR fantasy points.
Foster Moreau has played on nearly every offensive snap with Waller sidelined, but he's yet to either clear 45 yards or find the end zone in any game this season. He's a TE2.
Over/Under: 38.8 (10th highest)
Win Probability: Raiders 65% (8th highest)
Dallas Cowboys @ Green Bay Packers
Lineup locks: Aaron Jones, CeeDee Lamb
Dak Prescott was a top-five fantasy quarterback when we last saw him (Week 8), but Dallas continues to lean on a run-first offense and Week 10 brings a tough matchup against a Green Bay defense that has allowed the fifth-fewest QB fantasy points. In fact, no quarterbacks have reached 20 fantasy points against the Packers and only two hit 16 points. Use caution.
Aaron Rodgers struggled in a smash spot against Detroit last week, and he remains without any top-10 fantasy outings this season. He's not exactly an ideal streamer this week.
Ezekiel Elliott missed Week 8 but, prior to that, he had scored three times over his last two games. Elliott is a non-factor as a receiver (eight targets in seven games), but he's still averaging 16.4 touches per game, which keeps him in the RB2/flex mix. He remains the preferred start over Tony Pollard, who scored three times with Elliott out. Pollard had just one top-20 fantasy outing during the seven games in which Elliott has been active.
AJ Dillon has neither scored nor reached double-digit fantasy points since Week 1. He shouldn't be in lineups unless Jones (ankle) is out, especially against a Dallas defense that has allowed the fourth-fewest RB fantasy points and only three touchdowns.
Allen Lazard has seen eight-plus targets in four straight full games and has a touchdown in five out of seven games. He's a WR2.
Michael Gallup is averaging 4.6 targets per game and hasn't reached double-digit fantasy points since he scored his only touchdown back in Week 4. He's a flex.
Dalton Schultz has been a top-12 fantasy TE option in all three of Prescott's starts. He's back in the TE1 mix, though the Packers haven't allowed more than 10.4 TE fantasy points to any individual this season.
Robert Tonyan is averaging 35.0 receiving yards per game, but has been over 10.2 fantasy points just once. He's a mid-range TE2.
Over/Under: 36.9 (12th highest)
Win Probability: Cowboys 75% (3rd highest)
Arizona Cardinals @ Los Angeles Rams
Lineup locks: Kyler Murray, Cooper Kupp, DeAndre Hopkins, Zach Ertz
Matthew Stafford has yet to deliver any top-10 fantasy outings and has just one finish better than 15th. He's not close to the QB1 radar right now, even if he is cleared from the league's concussion protocol in time to play this week.
James Conner returned from injury and played on 44 (72%) out of 61 possible snaps in Week 9. The Rams have allowed four RB scores this season, and Christian McCaffrey is the only back who has reached 15 fantasy points against them in a game -- he did it twice. Conner hasn't found the end zone since Week 1 but has 60-plus yards in three straight games. His heavy usage last week returns him to the RB2 mix. Eno Benjamin has returned to backup duties and shouldn't be near lineups.
Cam Akers returned to the Rams lineup in Week 9 and played on 11 snaps (five carries), compared to 27 for Darrell Henderson Jr. (12 carries, one target) and 15 for Malcolm Brown (two carries, one target). Avoid this backfield.
Rondale Moore has seen eight-plus targets in four of his last five games and has been a top-20 fantasy scorer in both of the last two weeks. He's a solid WR3 play.
Allen Robinson II was held to just 24 yards on five targets last week and has cleared 10.4 fantasy points only twice -- not so coincidentally the only two games in which he found the end zone. His heavy usage near the goal line (nine end zone targets, second most) is all that keeps him in the WR3 discussion.
Tyler Higbee did not catch a pass in Week 9 and has been held to a sad 22 yards on 10 targets over his last three games. He's plummeted since his heavy early-season usage, but is still on the TE1 radar this week against an Arizona defense that has allowed the most TE catches, yards, touchdowns and fantasy points.
Over/Under: 36.4 (13th highest)
Win Probability: Rams 58% (12th highest)
Los Angeles Chargers @ San Francisco 49ers
Lineup locks: Justin Herbert, Christian McCaffrey, Austin Ekeler, Deebo Samuel, Gerald Everett, George Kittle
Jimmy Garoppolo doesn't add value with his legs, but he has tossed exactly two touchdowns in four straight games and his stock is on the rise with one of the league's top group of receiving targets. He's best viewed as a good QB2 against a Chargers defense that has allowed 13 passing scores (ninth most).
Joshua Palmer's first game as the Chargers' No. 1 wide receiver resulted in 106 yards on 10 targets. He has now seen 23 targets during his last two games and figures to see similar usage for as long as Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are out. DeAndre Carter (six targets on 38 routes) and Michael Bandy (eight targets on 37 routes) are the Nos. 2 and 3 receivers with Allen and Williams out, but neither are good flex plays.
Brandon Aiyuk has 83, 82 and 81 yards in his last three games, having produced six-plus touches in all three contests and a total of three touchdowns during the span. He may struggle for consistency with so many mouths to feed moving forward, but he's nonetheless a fine WR3.
Over/Under: 44.1 (6th highest)
Win Probability: 49ers 64% (9th highest)
Washington Commanders @ Philadelphia Eagles
Lineup locks: Jalen Hurts, Miles Sanders, A.J. Brown, Terry McLaurin, Dallas Goedert
With J.D. McKissic out last week, Antonio Gibson outsnapped Brian Robinson Jr. 34-28. Robinson led in carries (13-11), but Gibson held the edge in routes (18-9) and targets (3-2). Gibson is the top flex option here, and he'll bump up to a RB2 if McKissic remains out. Robinson is only a flex if McKissic remains sidelined.
DeVonta Smith has been held under 45 yards in four of his last five games and has just one score during the span. Smith is currently fantasy's WR28 and is a good WR3 against a Washington defense that has allowed the eighth-most WR fantasy points.
Curtis Samuel has bounced back a bit in recent weeks and has had between 79 and 81 scrimmage yards in three straight games. Samuel scored in Week 9 -- his first touchdown since Week 2. He's a flex against an Eagles defense that has allowed the lowest WR catch rate (55%) and second-lowest YPA (6.0).
Over/Under: 42.6 (7th highest)
Win Probability: Eagles 82% (Highest)
Atlanta Falcons @ Carolina Panthers
Lineup locks: DJ Moore
Marcus Mariota is coming off a dud week, but he's been a top-10 fantasy scorer in three of the past five weeks. Atlanta remains one of four teams with at least two offensive touchdowns in every game. Mariota is a streaming option against Carolina.
Cordarrelle Patterson returned from IR last week and handled 13 carries and one target on 23 snaps. Tyler Allgeier racked up 10 carries and one target on 23 snaps, leaving Caleb Huntley with seven carries on 13 snaps. Patterson has scored in four of his five games this season and, though he has barely been targeted (just three over his last four games), he has a great matchup against a Carolina defense that allowed 211 yards and a ridiculous five scores to Joe Mixon last week. Patterson is back in the RB2 discussion, whereas Allgeier and Huntley belong on benches/waivers.
D'Onta Foreman followed his 31-point fantasy effort in Week 8 with a massive dud (only 21 yards on nine touches) in Week 9. He's likely to split backfield duties with Chuba Hubbard, who led the committee when he was healthy back in Week 7. Foreman, who has just 27 career targets, is the better flex for now, but we'll need to monitor their usage.
Drake London was targeted seven times last week (his highest total since Week 5), but he was held below 45 yards and 8.0 fantasy points for the sixth straight week. London's enormous 29% target share is all that keeps him in the flex discussion.
Over the past two games, Terrace Marshall Jr. has produced 140 yards and a score on 15 targets. He has ascended to the flex discussion, especially against a Falcons defense that's no better than second in terms of receptions, yards, touchdowns and fantasy points allowed to wideouts.
Kyle Pitts has reached double-digit fantasy points in three of his past six games, but was below 5.0 points in the other three games during the span. He remains a boom/bust back-end TE1.
Over/Under: 44.6 (5th highest)
Win Probability: Falcons 60% (11th highest)