Welcome to Field Pass!
If you're new here, I've got some really good news for you: You're not alone. As a matter of fact, so am I, as today marks the debut of a column that I'm thrilled to present to you each week during the regular season.
As a father of a 7-month-old child, I'm acutely aware that you have to crawl before you can walk (heck, I'm figuring out that you have to scoot before you can crawl. Anyone have tips on how to babyproof a house?). I say that to illuminate this point: What you see today is the start of our model, not necessarily the finished product.
The point of this column will be as follows: Imagine you had the luxury of watching Monday Night Football on a private jet that was chartering you to a location -- a spot of your choosing -- anywhere in the world for a 72-ish-hour getaway. Upon return, you're just hours away from the start of a new week of football with the Thursday night game around the corner and you spent exactly zero minutes of your time following what had happened since you stepped off that plane on Monday night.
Field Pass' goal is to give you the precise intel you need on the most important fantasy football storylines, which includes some help from friends at ESPN, who offer the best and freshest insight into what matters most. You'll hear from our incredible team of NFL Nation reporters, who are locked in 365 days a year on the teams they cover, our national reporters -- including fantasy football-obsessed Adam Schefter -- and our fantasy analysts here at ESPN. Our rolodex is vast; we'll dial up whomever we need.
We're really looking forward to this ride and hope you are as well. You can help us and the other readers of this column with feedback: Feel free to find me on Twitter @FieldYates to share some thoughts.
Old wide receiver faces, new wide receiver places
Davante Adams and Tyreek Hill were each traded this offseason, headlining a series of moves that saw elite wideouts get paid more than ever. From a fantasy perspective, many have questioned whether Adams and Hill can sustain their otherworldly production when transitioning to quarterbacks who aren't among the best to ever play the game.
Hill goes to Miami, where his quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has thrown just one touchdown pass of more than 30 yards in his career.
During Adams' final three seasons with the Packers, no other player had more than 68 targets in a season; it was The Adams Show. In Vegas, Adams now shares the field with Darren Waller (145 targets in 2020) and Hunter Renfrow (128 targets in 2021), but there's no doubting who the alpha is in this offense: "That old college connection with fellow Fresno State Bulldog Derek Carr is alive," Raiders reporter Paul Gutierrez said. "And so long as Las Vegas' reimagined O-line gives Carr time, Adams will continue to cook. As Carr said, he's 'cautiously optimistic' about what they can accomplish this season."
Though their respective outlooks are slightly down from years past, I have both Hill and Adams firmly inside my top 10 wideouts for the season and for Week 1. Hill draws a familiar foe in the Patriots, where speedy Jonathan Jones could shadow him, while Adams and the Raiders face a Chargers team that could be without its top cover man in J.C. Jackson.
The royalty returns
No two players have been more dominant over a multiyear stretch during the past five years than Christian McCaffrey and Derrick Henry, but each is coming off of an injury-impacted 2021 (McCaffrey also missed significant time in 2020).
The concern for McCaffrey is not about his effectiveness on the field when healthy -- it's about staying healthy after just 10 games played over the past two seasons. McCaffrey consulted Hall of Fame back Marshall Faulk this offseason for tips on longevity. During the eight-year apex of his career, Faulk sat out a grand total of seven games. Everything I've heard from those who have spent some time around McCaffrey this summer is overwhelmingly positive.
McCaffrey is my top-ranked back for Week 1 and will likely be as long as he stays on the field. Since 2018, he averages 25.6 fantasy points per game, easily the best of any player in the NFL.
Henry was not much in the discussion for the top overall pick this preseason, as managers were both attracted to Jonathan Taylor or McCaffrey's upside or wary of a 28-year old back who played just one game after a major foot injury last season. Colleague Stephania Bell -- the best voice on injury analysis in sports -- has relayed she has zero concern regarding Henry's foot issue from last year and was blown away by watching him in person during training camp. That jives with everything I've been told about Henry: He's as ready to dominate as ever.
The Titans were willing to sweeten the financial pot for Henry by accelerating $2 million of his 2023 salary onto the books in 2022; that's not the kind of move you make when you forecast a sudden decline for this season. Henry averaged an astronomical 27.4 carries per game last season, has 55 rushing touchdowns over his past 55 games and is my RB3 for Week 1.
New kids on the block
We've seen historic rookie seasons in 2020 and 2021 from Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase, respectively, reminding that instant success is common for fantasy rookies. Three rookies have stood out this preseason as good bets to see immediate roles.
Falcons WR Drake London has a unique blend of pedigree and opportunity that makes him the rookie I'm most bullish on entering the season. London was the eighth overall pick in the draft, taken at the top of yet another impressive rookie wideout class. The Falcons' receiver depth chart is one of the thinnest in the NFL, with only Olamide Zaccheaus returning from last year's squad (he had just 406 yards in 2021). London could easily sail toward 125-plus targets this season and is a fringe flex play this week. With all the depth at wide receiver across the league this season, there is no shortage of Week 1 options to consider.
Texans RB Dameon Pierce starred in the preseason and has earned the starting role for Houston. The talent as a runner is apparent, and Texans reporter DJ Bien-Aime believes Pierce could be in for a feature-back role, which are great signs for a bright future. In the short term, the two areas I have my eye on for Pierce are clear: How much touchdown and passing-game upside will he have in this offense? Among the 10 lowest-scoring offenses in the NFL last season, no running back scored more than eight rushing touchdowns. And while I believe Pierce has the skill set to be a useful pass-catcher in time, I do forecast veteran Rex Burkhead earning some of those duties. Out of the gate, I have Pierce as RB34 in Week 1.
Jets RB Breece Hall is the most talented back in this year's class and has a real chance to be the fantasy rookie of the year. It might just take some time: "Hall will be heavily involved in the offense, splitting time with Michael Carter," Jets reporter Rich Cimini said. "The organization sees Hall as a more talented back than Carter, but they're not going to hand everything to the rookie out of the gate. It will evolve over time. Hall can play all three downs, but Ty Johnson also is under consideration as the third-down back." The Jets will be without Zach Wilson and are tied as the largest underdog of Week 1 (+7 at home against the Ravens, per Caesars Sportsbook). Hall might defer some passing-game work to Carter, which is why I have Hall as RB27 for Week 1. By season's end, it would not surprise me if he was closer to a top 15-18 weekly play.
Committee backfields
Few things haunt fantasy managers quite like a backfield by committee, but the days of true feature backs are dwindling.
The backfields I want to learn more about this weekend are as follows:
Denver Broncos: Can Javonte Williams take command of the backfield after he and Melvin Gordon III had exactly the same number of carries last season? I sense so. Williams is my RB13 this week, Gordon is RB39. Williams had more broken tackles on rushing attempts last season than any player in the league. He's dynamic.
Green Bay Packers: Matt LaFleur has tabbed Aaron Jones and AJ Dillon as running backs "1A and 1A," but Jones presents more fantasy upside as a pass-catcher. He a must-start for me in Week 1, while Dillon -- who should absorb even more goal line duty this season -- is a low-end flex play.
Miami Dolphins: Chase Edmonds and Raheem Mostert figure to be the leaders in the backfield, with Edmonds bringing more value in the passing game. Mostert should have a role, but he needs a touchdown to pay off in your lineup. Edmonds should be able to take advantage of the Patriots' linebackers in the passing game this week and is a solid flex play.
Kansas City Chiefs: While Clyde-Edwards Helaire seems like the starter, rookie seventh-rounder Isiah Pacheco earned rave reviews in training camp. Veteran Ronald Jones hung on to a roster spot despite some speculation he could be on the outs. Will CEH get more involved in the passing game? He's a fringe starter in Week 1.
New England Patriots: Damien Harris pounded his way to 15 rushing touchdowns last season, but rookie Rhamondre Stevenson made plays whenever he got the opportunity. With James White now retired and veteran Ty Montgomery nursing an ankle injury, there could be ample passing-game opportunities in Week 1. Stevenson is a natural in that regard.